2008 United States presidential election in Hawaii explained

Election Name:2008 United States presidential election in Hawaii
Country:Hawaii
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2004 United States presidential election in Hawaii
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2012 United States presidential election in Hawaii
Next Year:2012
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:Obama portrait crop.jpg
Nominee1:Barack Obama
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Illinois
Running Mate1:Joe Biden
Electoral Vote1:4
Popular Vote1:325,871
Percentage1:71.85%
Nominee2:John McCain
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Arizona
Running Mate2:Sarah Palin
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:120,566
Percentage2:26.58%
Map Size:350px
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Barack Obama
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States presidential election in Hawaii took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 4 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Hawaii, Barack Obama's birth state, gave him 71.9% of the vote with a 45.3% margin of victory in 2008. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Hawaii has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1988. Obama's margin of victory in this state is only surpassed by that of the District of Columbia and is the only actual state that gave either candidate more than 70% of the vote. Turnout in the state was much higher than previous elections.

This remains the second-best performance by any party in a presidential election in Hawaii after Lyndon Johnson's landslide election in 1964.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Listed below are their last predictions before election day:

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report[1]
Cook Political Report[2]
The Takeaway[3]
Electoral-vote.com[4]
The Washington PostWashington Post[5]
Politico[6]
RealClearPolitics[7]
FiveThirtyEight
CQ Politics[8]
The New York Times[9]
CNN[10]
NPR
MSNBC
Fox News[11]
Associated Press[12]
Rasmussen Reports[13]

Polling

Just 3 pre-election polls were ever taken in the state, averaging Obama at 64% to McCain at 30%.[14]

Fundraising

Obama raised $3,098,395. McCain raised $424,368.[15]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $113,838 while a conservative interest group spent $31.[16] Obama visited the state once.[17]

Analysis

One of the most reliably blue states in the nation, Hawaii has only voted for two Republican candidates since statehood, both in national 49-state Republican landslides--Richard Nixon in 1972 and Ronald Reagan in 1984. A large concentration of Asian Americans makes the state very favorable to the Democrats. Although moderate Republicans occasionally win at the state level—for instance, then-Governor Linda Lingle and Lieutenant Governor Duke Aiona were both Republicans—Hawaii has long been reckoned as a Democratic stronghold.

It came as something of a surprise in 2004 when John Kerry only carried Hawaii by 8.7 points, the worst performance for a Democrat since Ronald Reagan carried the state in 1984. However, the state reverted to form in dramatic fashion in 2008, with Barack Obama (who was born in Hawaii) winning the state in a landslide over Republican John McCain. Obama outperformed Kerry by 36.3%, making Hawaii Obama's biggest improvement from 2004. During the same election, Democrats picked up one seat in the Hawaii House of Representatives and two seats in the Hawaii Senate, giving them a super-majority in the Hawaii state legislature with 45 out of 51 seats in the Hawaii House and 23 out of 25 seats in the Hawaii Senate. This is the most recent election that the state voted more Democratic than the previous one.

Results

2008 United States presidential election in Hawaii
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticBarack ObamaJoe Biden325,87171.85%4
RepublicanJohn McCainSarah Palin120,56626.58%0
IndependentMatt Gonzalez3,8250.84%0
LibertarianBob BarrWayne Allyn Root1,3140.29%0
ConstitutionChuck Baldwin (write-in)Darrell Castle1,0130.22%0
GreenRosa Clemente9790.22%0
Totals453,568100.00%4
Voter turnout (Voting age population)46.4%

By county

CountyBarack Obama
Democratic
John McCain
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Hawaii50,81975.94%14,86622.22%1,2311.84%35,95353.72%66,916
Honolulu214,23969.83%88,16428.74%4,4101.44%126,07541.09%306,813
Kalawao2477.42%619.35%13.23%1858.07%31
Kauai20,41674.99%6,24522.94%5632.07%14,17152.05%27,224
Maui39,72776.71%11,15421.54%9081.75%28,57355.17%51,789
Totals325,87171.85%120,56626.58%7,1311.57%205,30545.27%453,568

By congressional district

Barack Obama swept both of Hawaii's two congressional districts easily.

DistrictMcCainObamaRepresentative
28.14%70.43%
25.15%73.14%Mazie Hirono

Electors

See main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Hawaii cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Hawaii is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[18] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 4 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[19]

  1. Joy Kobashigawa
  2. Marie Dolores
  3. Amefil Agbayani
  4. Frances K. Kagawa

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2009-01-01. D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries.. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090101161206/http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/Predictions.html. 2009-01-01.
  2. Web site: 2015-05-05. Presidential. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20150505003043/http://cookpolitical.com/presidential. 2015-05-05.
  3. Web site: 2009-04-22. Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions. 2021-08-23. https://web.archive.org/web/20090422070127/http://vote2008.thetakeaway.org/2008/09/20/track-the-electoral-college-vote-predictions/. 2009-04-22.
  4. Web site: Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily. 2021-08-23. electoral-vote.com.
  5. Based on Takeaway
  6. Web site: POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com. 2016-09-22. www.politico.com.
  7. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605003612/http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5. 2008-06-05.
  8. Web site: CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20090614004022/http://innovation.cq.com/prezMap08. June 14, 2009. December 20, 2009. CQ Politics.
  9. News: Nagourney. Adam. Zeleny. Jeff. Carter. Shan. 2008-11-04. The Electoral Map: Key States. The New York Times. May 26, 2010.
  10. News: 2008-10-31. October  - 2008  - CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs. CNN. May 26, 2010. 2010-06-19. https://web.archive.org/web/20100619013250/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/. dead.
  11. News: April 27, 2010. Winning The Electoral College. Fox News.
  12. Web site: roadto270. 2016-09-22. hosted.ap.org.
  13. Web site: Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports. 2016-09-22. www.rasmussenreports.com.
  14. http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008/pollsa.php?fips=15 Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  15. Web site: Presidential Campaign Finance . 2009-08-20 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090324085902/http://www.fec.gov/DisclosureSearch/MapAppState.do?stateName=HI&cand_id=P00000001 . 2009-03-24 . dead .
  16. News: Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
  17. News: Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com . CNN . May 26, 2010.
  18. Web site: Electoral College . 2008-11-01 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081030041546/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/elections_ec.htm . October 30, 2008 .
  19. Web site: Archived copy . November 8, 2008 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081106140645/http://hawaii.gov/elections/factsheets/fsbo125.pdf . November 6, 2008 .