2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico explained

Election Name:2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Country:New Mexico
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2002 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Previous Year:2002
Next Election:2014 United States Senate election in New Mexico
Next Year:2014
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:Tom Udall Official House Picture.jpg
Nominee1:Tom Udall
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:505,128
Percentage1:61.33%
Nominee2:Steve Pearce
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:318,522
Percentage2:38.67%
Map Size:215px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Pete Domenici
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Tom Udall
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States Senate election in New Mexico was held on November 4, 2008, coinciding with the 2008 U.S. presidential election. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pete Domenici decided to retire instead of seeking a seventh term. All three of New Mexico's U.S. Representatives (Tom Udall, Steve Pearce, and Heather Wilson) retired from the House to run in this election, which was the first open Senate seat in the state since 1972 where Domenici was first elected on this seat. Pearce narrowly defeated Wilson in the Republican primary, but Udall won the general election after an uncontested Democratic primary.

In February 2007 Domenici indicated his intention to run for re-election.[1] By October 2007, he changed his mind, stating that because of the progression of a medical condition, he would not seek a seventh term.[2] Domenici also lost his chairmanship after Republicans lost control of the Senate in the 2006 Senate election, which may have inclined him against running. On June 3, 2008, Pearce and Udall won their respective nomination contests.[3]

Democrats won this seat for the first time since 1966, the NM-01 House seat for the first time ever, and the NM-02 seat for the first time since 1978, and thereby gave New Mexico an all-Democratic Congressional delegation for the first time since 1969. Tom Udall outperformed Barack Obama and his results in the concurrent presidential election by 4.42% and by 32,706 votes.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

After Domenici announced he was not running, Democratic Governor Bill Richardson was considered a leading candidate for the seat, but in October he affirmed his commitment to his presidential nomination campaign.[4]

In October Albuquerque Mayor Martin Chavez entered the race for the Democratic nomination.[5] In early November five-term Democratic Rep. Tom Udall entered the race.[6] On December 7 Chavez withdrew from the race, saying "While I deeply appreciate all the support I have received, it has become very clear to me that Democrats should not be divided in the upcoming election."[7]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Polling

SourceDateSteve
Pearce
Heather
Wilson
align=left SurveyUSA[8] November 16–18, 200737% align="center"56%
align=left SurveyUSA[9] May 15, 2008 align="center"49%46%

Results

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[10] October 23, 2008
align=left CQ Politics[11] October 31, 2008
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[12] November 2, 2008
align=left Real Clear Politics[13] October 31, 2008

Controversy

Domenici and Wilson were both being investigated by the Senate for their roles in the dismissal of prosecutor David Iglesias. This may have affected Wilson's chances in the 2008 election.[14]

In late October Pearce made 130,000 automated phone calls, which led Wilson to "cry foul."[15] At issue was Pearce's use of the phone calls to justify his opposition to the State Children's Health Insurance Program (SCHIP) bill. The Wilson campaign claimed that "Pearce violated House ethics by urging those he called to contact him through his official, non-campaign phone number or check out his official, non-campaign Web site."[16]

Finances

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) attempted to defend 23 Senate seats up for election in November. Committee chair Senator John Ensign identified the 10 most competitive Republican seats in June 2008. He was asked about the two Republican seats most likely to turn Democratic, Virginia and New Mexico. Ensign did not directly say whether the NRSC was considering walking away to work on other seats that can be won, but he said, "You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win."[17]

Udall raised more than $801,000 prior to November 29.[18] Wilson had slightly less, including a November Washington fundraiser with Vice President Dick Cheney that netted $110,000, bringing her total to about $750,000.[19]

Debates

The candidates agreed to three televised debates: October 15 on KOB-TV, October 18 on KRQE and October 26 on KOAT-TV. The AARP co-sponsored the second debate and the Albuquerque Journal co-sponsored the final debate. They also appeared together on Meet the Press in the fall.[20]

Polling

SourceDateSteve
Pearce (R)
Tom
Udall (D)
SurveyUSA[21] October 5–7, 200737% align="center"55%
Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates[22] October 23–27, 200733% align="center"50%
SurveyUSA[23] October 27–30, 200740% align="center"56%
Research 2000[24] November 5–7, 200737% align="center"54%
SurveyUSANovember 16–18, 200740% align="center"54%
New Mexico State University[25] February 11, 200831% align="center"53%
Rasmussen Reports[26] February 29, 200842% align="center"50%
Rasmussen ReportsApril 10, 200840% align="center"54%
Rasmussen Reports[27] May 14, 200837% align="center"53%
SurveyUSAMay 15, 200836% align="center"60%
Rasmussen Reports[28] July 24, 200835% align="center"61%
Rasmussen ReportsAugust 20, 200844% align="center"52%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 8, 200844% align="center"51%
Survey USA[29] September 16, 200841% align="center"56%
Public Policy Polling[30] September 19, 200837% align="center"57%
Survey USA[31] September 29–30, 200839% align="center"58%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 1, 200841% align="center"55%
Survey USA[32] October 13, 200840% align="center"58%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 13, 200837% align="center"57%
Rasmussen ReportsOctober 28, 200841% align="center"56%
Survey USA[33] October 31, 200842% align="center"56%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: Talhelm . Jennifer . February 13, 2007 . Domenici: 'I am running' in 2008 . . dead . February 14, 2007 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070930014935/http://www.freenewmexican.com/news/56924.html . September 30, 2007.
  2. News: Murray . Shailagh . October 5, 2007 . Citing Health, GOP's Domenici says he'll retire from Senate . . October 5, 2007.
  3. http://election.kob.com/article/stories/S463780.shtml?cat=10568 Election.KOB.com – Pearce narrowly wins U.S. Senate nomination
  4. News: October 4, 2008 . Richardson Sticks with Presidential Bid . . Associated Press . October 5, 2008.
  5. News: October 9, 2007 . Chavez announces U.S. Senate run . . November 18, 2007.
  6. News: November 11, 2007 . NM Rep. Tom Udall to Run for Senate . . dead . November 11, 2007 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071112061424/http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ilmYcsJz4U8IC8m_ox2SWgPj7DegD8SR39O80 . November 12, 2007.
  7. News: December 7, 2007 . Chávez drops out of U. S. Senate race . . dead . December 18, 2007 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080110034028/http://www.krqe.com/Global/story.asp?S=7468037 . January 10, 2008 . mdy-all.
  8. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=3ae216b1-9e55-4314-aa07-f560c157ea1c SurveyUSA
  9. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8873e7c5-a311-44e2-b01b-9df0a53afa30 SurveyUSA
  10. Web site: 2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008 . The Cook Political Report . April 1, 2021.
  11. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate Race Ratings Chart: Senate
  12. Web site: 2008 Senate ratings . Inside Elections . April 1, 2021.
  13. Web site: 2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results . Real Clear Politics . August 31, 2021.
  14. News: October 4, 2008 . Wilson, Possibly Udall To Seek Domenici's Senate Seat . The Gate . dead . October 18, 2007 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071011210100/http://thegate.nationaljournal.com/2007/10/wilson_to_seek_domenicis_senat_1.php . October 11, 2007.
  15. News: October 22, 2007 . Pearce calls voters, Wilson cries foul . . November 18, 2007 . January 10, 2008 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080110032149/http://kob.com/article/stories/S232572.shtml?cat=504 . dead .
  16. News: October 31, 2007 . Senate hopefuls don't inspire . . November 18, 2007 . August 17, 2009 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090817070401/http://www.alamogordonews.com/opinion/ci_7325103 . dead .
  17. News: Davis . Susan . June 12, 2008 . Sen. Ensign Says GOP Majority Would Be 'Fairly Miraculous' . Wall Street Journal blog .
  18. News: November 29, 2007 . Ten things to know about Senate hopeful Rep. Tom Udall . . dead . December 11, 2007 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071224215231/http://www.abqtrib.com/news/2007/nov/29/ten-things-know-about-senate-hopeful-rep-tom-udall/ . December 24, 2007 . mdy-all.
  19. News: November 16, 2007 . Wilson pulls $110,000 at Cheney fundraiser . . https://web.archive.org/web/20071124120330/http://thehill.com/campaign-2008/wilson-pulls-110000-at-cheney-fundraiser-2007-11-16.html . dead . November 24, 2007 . December 11, 2007.
  20. http://www.lcsun-news.com/ci_10231609 Senate candidates agree on 3 NM televised debates
  21. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=0c284bce-cac2-4c56-88c2-3f35c6b617bf SurveyUSA
  22. https://web.archive.org/web/20071128011658/http://draftudall.com/wp-content/uploads/2007/11/udall_poll_memo.pdf Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates
  23. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0c284bce-cac2-4c56-88c2-3f35c6b617bf&q=43185 SurveyUSA
  24. https://web.archive.org/web/20080110033302/http://blogs.abqtrib.com/albq/state/2007/11/daily_kos_predicts_very_close.html Research 2000
  25. https://web.archive.org/web/20081129021817/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002668829 New Mexico State University
  26. https://web.archive.org/web/20080406071110/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_senate Rasmussen Reports
  27. https://web.archive.org/web/20080624033045/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_mexico/new_mexico_senate_udall_continues_to_enjoy_big_lead_over_gop_challengers Rasmussen Reports
  28. https://web.archive.org/web/20080727005024/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/new_mexico/election_2008_new_mexico_senate Rasmussen Reports
  29. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3fb02455-c05b-442a-bc28-c351e77ec14a/ Survey USA
  30. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NM_922.pdf Public Policy Polling
  31. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8159cbc4-f2b7-430b-8fcd-4db9d0be038a Survey USA
  32. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a2fd6e40-246c-4e3e-b13a-e367ad297f66/ Survey USA
  33. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=95bf6797-cf1e-44ee-8718-0b022d172dc7/ Survey USA