2008 United States House of Representatives election ratings explained

Election Name:2008 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Country:United States
Previous Election:2006 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2010 United States House of Representatives election ratings
Next Year:2010

The 2008 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 4, 2008, with early voting taking place in some states in the weeks preceding that date. Voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and all five inhabited U.S. territories were also elected. These elections took place alongside the election of Democratic Senator Barack Obama of Illinois as President of the United States. The winners served in the 111th United States Congress, with seats apportioned among the states based on the 2000 United States census. On Election Day, Democrats had held a House majority since January 2007 as a result of the 2006 elections.

Forecasts

On April 8, 2008, analyst Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report stated that the fight for the House would be a "one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets." He points to a list of one dozen seats (out of all 435 seats in the House) that are most likely to change hands, of those twelve, ten are open seats, seats which Republicans won by 3% or less in 2006 or otherwise endangered GOP seats.[1] In May 2007, conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote that he believed there were at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008". He also said,

Novak qualified this by saying that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election".[2]

InTrade.com, the only betting site that offered odds on control of the House, put the likelihood of the Democrats retaining control at about 90% .[3] There have been three special elections for open Republican seats, IL-14 (formerly held by Dennis Hastert), LA-06 (formerly held by Richard Baker) and MS-01 (formerly held by Roger Wicker). Democrats won all three elections. After the MS-01 loss, Ron Gunzburger wrote, "GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans."[4]

Election ratings

The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party.

DistrictCPVIIncumbentPrevious
result		Cook
[5] 		Rothenberg
[6] 		Sabato
[7] 		RCP
[8] 		CQ Politics
[9] 		Winner
Terry Everett (R) data-sort-value=-69.5 69.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Bobby Bright (D)
Mike Rogers (R) data-sort-value=-59.4 59.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Mike Rogers (R)
Bud Cramer (D) data-sort-value=98.3 98.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 Parker Griffith (D)
Don Young (R) data-sort-value=-56.8 56.8% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Don Young (R)
Rick Renzi (R) data-sort-value=-51.8 51.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Ann Kirkpatrick (D)
John Shadegg (R) data-sort-value=-59.3 59.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 John Shadegg (R)
Harry Mitchell (D) data-sort-value=50.4 50.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Harry Mitchell (D)
Gabby Giffords (D) data-sort-value=54.3 54.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 Gabby Giffords (D)
Dan Lungren (R) data-sort-value= -59.5 59.5% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Dan Lungren (R)
John Doolittle (R) data-sort-value= -49.9 49.9% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Tom McClintock (R)
Jerry McNerney (D) data-sort-value=53.2 53.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 Jerry McNerney (D)
David Dreier (R) data-sort-value= -57.057.0% Rdata-sort-value=-1 David Dreier (R)
Mary Bono (R) data-sort-value= -60.760.7% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Mary Bono (R)
Dana Rohrabacher (R) data-sort-value= -59.659.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Dana Rohrabacher (R)
Brian Bilbray (R) data-sort-value= -53.2 53.2% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Brian Bilbray (R)
Marilyn Musgrave (R) data-sort-value=-45.6 45.6% Rdata-sort-value=1 Betsy Markey (D)
Joe Courtney (D) data-sort-value=50.0 50.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Joe Courtney (D)
Chris Shays (R) data-sort-value=-50.9 50.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Jim Himes (D)
Chris Murphy (D) data-sort-value=56.5 56.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Chris Murphy (D)
Ric Keller (R) data-sort-value=-52.8 52.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Alan Grayson (D)
Vern Buchanan (R) data-sort-value= -50.1 50.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Vern Buchanan (R)
Dave Weldon (R) data-sort-value= -56.3 56.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Dave Weldon (R)
Tim Mahoney (D) data-sort-value=49.5 49.5% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Tom Rooney (R)
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) data-sort-value= -62.1 62.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
Lincoln Díaz-Balart (R) data-sort-value= -59.5 59.5% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Lincoln Díaz-Balart (R)
Ron Klein (D) data-sort-value=50.9 50.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Ron Klein (D)
Tom Feeney (R) data-sort-value= -57.9 57.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Suzanne Kosmas (D)
Mario Díaz-Balart (R) data-sort-value= -58.5 58.5% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Mario Díaz-Balart (R)
Jim Marshall (D) data-sort-value=50.5 50.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Jim Marshall (D)
John Barrow (D) data-sort-value=50.3 50.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 John Barrow (D)
David Scott (D) data-sort-value=50.3 50.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 David Scott (D)
Bill Sali (R) data-sort-value= -49.9 49.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Walt Minnick (D)
Peter Roskam (R) data-sort-value= -51.4 51.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Peter Roskam (R)
Melissa Bean (D) data-sort-value=50.9 50.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Melissa Bean (D)
Mark Kirk (R) data-sort-value= -53.4 53.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Mark Kirk (R)
Jerry Weller (R) data-sort-value= -55.1 55.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Debbie Halvorson (D)
Judy Biggert (R) data-sort-value= -58.3 58.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Judy Biggert (R)
Bill Foster (D) data-sort-value=52.5 52.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Bill Foster (D)
Ray LaHood (R) data-sort-value= -67.3 67.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Aaron Schock (R)
Mark Souder (R) data-sort-value= -54.3 54.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Mark Souder (R)
Brad Ellsworth (D) data-sort-value=61.0 61.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Brad Ellsworth (D)
Baron Hill (D) data-sort-value=50.0 50.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Baron Hill (D)
Tom Latham (R) data-sort-value= -57.4 57.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Tom Latham (R)
Nancy Boyda (D) data-sort-value=50.6 50.6% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Lynn Jenkins (R)
Dennis Moore (D) data-sort-value=56.4 56.4% Ddata-sort-value=1 Dennis Moore (D)
Ron Lewis (R) data-sort-value= -55.4 55.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Brett Guthrie (R)
John Yarmuth (D) data-sort-value=50.6 50.6% Ddata-sort-value=1 John Yarmuth (D)
Steve Scalise (R) data-sort-value= -75.1 75.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Steve Scalise (R)
William Jefferson (D) data-sort-value=56.6 56.6% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Joseph Cao (R)
Jim McCrery (R) data-sort-value= -57.4 57.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 John Fleming (R)
Don Cazayoux (D) data-sort-value=49.2 49.2% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Bill Cassidy (R)
Charles Boustany (R) data-sort-value= -70.7 70.7% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Charles Boustany (R)
Tom Allen (D) data-sort-value=60.8 60.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Chellie Pingree (D)
Wayne Gilchrest (R) data-sort-value= -68.8 68.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Frank Kratovil (D)
Tim Walberg (R) data-sort-value= -49.9 49.9% Rdata-sort-value=1 Mark Schauer (D)
Mike Rogers (R) data-sort-value= -55.3 55.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Mike Rogers (R)
Joe Knollenberg (R) data-sort-value= -51.6 51.6% Rdata-sort-value=1 Gary Peters (D)
Thaddeus McCotter (R) data-sort-value= -54.1 54.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Thaddeus McCotter (R)
Tim Walz (D) data-sort-value=52.7 52.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Tim Walz (D)
John Kline (R) data-sort-value= -56.2 56.2% Rdata-sort-value=-1 John Kline (R)
Jim Ramstad (R) data-sort-value=-64.9 64.9% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Erik Paulsen (R)
Michele Bachmann (R) data-sort-value=-50.1 50.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Michele Bachmann (R)
Travis Childers (D) data-sort-value=53.8 53.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 Travis Childers (D)
Sam Graves (R) data-sort-value=-61.6 61.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Sam Graves (R)
Kenny Hulshof (R) data-sort-value=-61.4 61.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)
Lee Terry (R) data-sort-value=-54.7 54.7% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Lee Terry (R)
Dean Heller (R) data-sort-value=-50.4 50.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Dean Heller (R)
Jon Porter (R) data-sort-value= -48.5 48.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Dina Titus (D)
Carol Shea-Porter (D) data-sort-value=51.3 51.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 Carol Shea-Porter (D)
Paul Hodes (D) data-sort-value=52.7 52.7% Ddata-sort-value=1 Paul Hodes (D)
Jim Saxton (R) data-sort-value= -58.4 58.4% Rdata-sort-value=1 John Adler (D)
Scott Garrett (R) data-sort-value=-54.9 54.9% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Scott Garrett (R)
Mike Ferguson (R) data-sort-value=-49.4 49.4% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Leonard Lance (R)
Heather Wilson (R) data-sort-value= -50.2 50.2% Rdata-sort-value=1 Martin Heinrich (D)
Steve Pearce (R) data-sort-value= -59.4 59.4% Rdata-sort-value=1 Harry Teague (D)
Vito Fossella (R) data-sort-value= -56.8 56.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Michael McMahon (D)
John Hall (D) data-sort-value=51.2 51.2% Ddata-sort-value=1 John Hall (D)
Kirsten Gillibrand (D) data-sort-value=53.1 53.1% Ddata-sort-value=1 Kirsten Gillibrand (D)
Mike Arcuri (D) data-sort-value=52.0 52.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Mike Arcuri (D)
James Walsh (R) data-sort-value= -50.8 50.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Dan Maffei (D)
Thomas Reynolds (R) data-sort-value=-52.0 52.0% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Chris Lee (R)
Randy Kuhl (R) data-sort-value= -51.0 51.0% Rdata-sort-value=1 Eric Massa (D)
Virginia Foxx (R) data-sort-value=-57.2 57.2% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Virginia Foxx (R)
Robin Hayes (R) data-sort-value= -50.1 50.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Larry Kissell (D)
Patrick McHenry (R) data-sort-value=-61.8 61.8% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Patrick McHenry (R)
Steve Chabot (R) data-sort-value=-52.3 52.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 Steve Driehaus (D)
Jean Schmidt (R) data-sort-value=-50.5 50.5% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Jean Schmidt (R)
Dave Hobson (R) data-sort-value=-60.6 60.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Steve Austria (R)
Pat Tiberi (R) data-sort-value=-57.3 57.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Pat Tiberi (R)
Steve LaTourette (R) data-sort-value=-57.6 57.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Steve LaTourette (R)
Deborah Pryce (R) data-sort-value=-50.2 50.2% Rdata-sort-value=1 Mary Jo Kilroy (D)
Ralph Regula (R) data-sort-value=-58.3 58.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 John Boccieri (D)
Zack Space (D) data-sort-value=62.1 62.1% Ddata-sort-value=1 Zack Space (D)
John Sullivan (R) data-sort-value=-63.6 63.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 John Sullivan (R)
Tom Cole (R) data-sort-value=-64.6 64.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Tom Cole (R)
Darlene Hooley (D) data-sort-value=54.0 54.0% Ddata-sort-value=1 Kurt Schrader (D)
Phil English (R) data-sort-value=-53.6 53.6% Rdata-sort-value=1 Kathy Dahlkemper (D)
Jason Altmire (D) data-sort-value=51.9 51.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Jason Altmire (D)
John Peterson (R) data-sort-value=-60.1 60.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Glenn Thompson (R)
Jim Gerlach (R) data-sort-value=-52.1 52.1% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Jim Gerlach (R)
Patrick Murphy (D) data-sort-value=50.3 50.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 Patrick Murphy (D)
Chris Carney (D) data-sort-value=52.9 52.9% Ddata-sort-value=1 Chris Carney (D)
Paul Kanjorski (D) data-sort-value=72.5 72.5% Ddata-sort-value=1 Paul Kanjorski (D)
John Murtha (D) data-sort-value=60.8 60.8% Ddata-sort-value=1 John Murtha (D)
Charlie Dent (R) data-sort-value=-53.6 53.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Charlie Dent (R)
Tim Murphy (R) data-sort-value=-57.8 57.8% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Tim Murphy (R)
Henry Brown (R) data-sort-value=-59.9 59.9% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Henry Brown (R)
Joe Wilson (R) data-sort-value=-62.6 62.6% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Joe Wilson (R)
John Culberson (R) data-sort-value=-59.2 59.2% Rdata-sort-value=-1 John Culberson (R)
Michael McCaul (R) data-sort-value=-55.3 55.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Michael McCaul (R)
Nick Lampson (D) data-sort-value=51.8 51.8% Ddata-sort-value=-1 Pete Olson (R)
Ciro Rodriguez (D) data-sort-value=54.3 54.3% Ddata-sort-value=1 Ciro Rodriguez (D)
Thelma Drake (R) data-sort-value=-51.3 51.3% Rdata-sort-value=1 Glenn Nye (D)
Virgil Goode (R) data-sort-value=-59.1 59.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Tom Perriello (D)
Bob Goodlatte (R) data-sort-value=-75.1 75.1% Rdata-sort-value=1 Bob Goodlatte (R)
Frank Wolf (R) data-sort-value=-58.8 58.8% Rdata-sort-value=1 Frank Wolf (R)
Tom Davis (R) data-sort-value=-55.5 55.5% Rdata-sort-value=1 Gerry Connolly (D)
Dave Reichert (R) data-sort-value=-51.5 51.5% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Dave Reichert (R)
Shelley Moore Capito (R) data-sort-value=-57.2 57.2% Rdata-sort-value=1 Shelley Moore Capito (R)
Steve Kagen (D) data-sort-value=51.1 51.1% Ddata-sort-value=1 Steve Kagen (D)
Barbara Cubin (R) data-sort-value=-48.3 48.3% Rdata-sort-value=-1 Cynthia Lummis (R)
Overall<--Coo-->D - 226
R - 174
35 tossups		D - 254
R - 167
14 tossups		D - 262
R - 173		D - 237
R - 171
26 tossups		D - 242
R - 167
26 tossups		D - 257
R - 178

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats. 2008-04-08 . Rothenberg . Stuart . April 8, 2008 . RealClearPolitics.com .
  2. Web site: Evans-Novak Political Report . 2007-05-02 . Novak . Robert . May 2, 2007 . Human Events . https://web.archive.org/web/20070510081321/http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=20527 . May 10, 2007 . dead .
  3. Web site: Contract – Democratic or GOP control of the House of Representatives, 2008. InTrade.com. February 6, 2008. https://web.archive.org/web/20080919210454/https://www.intrade.com/aav2/trading/tradingHTML.jsp?evID=65263&eventSelect=65263&updateList=true&showExpired=false . September 19, 2008.
  4. Web site: Politics1.com . 2008-05-14 . Gunzburger . Ron . May 14, 2008 . Politics1.com . https://web.archive.org/web/20100314041218/http://politics1.com/blog-0508.htm#0514 . March 14, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
  5. Web site: 2008 Competitive House Race Chart . House: Race Ratings . Cook Political Report . 6 November 2006 . 20 November 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20081106112035/http://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house/competitive_2008-11-04_13-32-49.php . 6 November 2008.
  6. Web site: 2008 House Ratings . House Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . 2 November 2006 . 20 November 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20081106133426/http://rothenbergpoliticalreport.blogspot.com/2008/11/2008-house-ratings.html . 6 November 2008.
  7. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2008110301/ The Last Last Word
  8. Web site: Battle for the House of Representatives . realclearpolitics.com . Real Clear Politics . 9 December 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20081217170047/http://www.realclearpolitics.com:80/epolls/2008/house/battle_for_the_house_of_representatives.html . 17 December 2008 . 7 November 2008.
  9. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: House . cqpolitics.com . Congressional Quarterly Inc . 20 November 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20081106054801/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-house . 6 November 2008.

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