2008 United States Senate election in Montana explained

Election Name:2008 United States Senate election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2002 United States Senate election in Montana
Previous Year:2002
Next Election:2014 United States Senate election in Montana
Next Year:2014
Election Date:November 4, 2008
Image1:File:Max S Baucus.jpg
Nominee1:Max Baucus
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:345,937
Percentage1:72.92%
Nominee2:Bob Kelleher
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:128,762
Percentage2:27.08%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Max Baucus
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Max Baucus
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2008 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Senator Max Baucus won re-election to a sixth term in a landslide, winning more than 70% of the vote and carrying every county in the state, despite Republican John McCain's narrow victory in the state in the concurrent presidential election. Baucus later resigned his seat on February 6, 2014, after the Senate confirmed him to be U.S. Ambassador to China, having already announced his intention to retire at the end of term on April 23, 2013. As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 2 Senate seat in Montana.

Background

Montana generally gives its presidential electors to Republican candidates, but historically has elected several prominent Democrats to the United States Senate, including Thomas Walsh, Burton K. Wheeler, Mike Mansfield, and Lee Metcalf. Between 1913 and 2015, only two Republicans served as U.S. Senator from Montana, Zales Ecton and Conrad Burns. In 2004, the state elected Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer, reversing a 16-year trend of electing Republicans to the Governorship. In the 2006 elections, the Republican Party took over the state House of Representatives in Montana, the only pick-up of a state legislature for the Republicans.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

All Republican candidates trailed Baucus badly in polls. It was revealed that Garnett Shay had an outstanding warrant for his arrest, preventing him from running an effective campaign.[1]

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Senator Baucus defeated Kelleher as a Democratic incumbent running in a year that was very successful for his party in general. The U.S. Senate race in Montana was somewhat unusual, in that it was perhaps the only race that year in which the Republican candidate was more liberal than the Democratic one. Kelleher, a perennial candidate and eccentric figure in Montana politics, took many positions that were highly unorthodox by GOP standards, such as favoring more liberal drug control policies, supporting universal healthcare and affirmative action, and favoring fair trade restrictions. He was, at the time, an 85-year-old attorney and perennial candidate who has run for office on several different party tickets. Kelleher was pro-life, advocated a Parliamentary system of government for the United States, and supported nationalization of the American oil and gas industry and a single-payer health care system.[2] He received no support from the Montana Republican Party.[3]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[4] October 23, 2008
align=left CQ Politics[5] October 31, 2008
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[6] November 2, 2008
align=left Real Clear Politics[7] November 4, 2008

Polling

Poll SourceDates administeredMax
Baucus (D)
Bob
Kelleher (R)
align=left Rasmussen Reports[8] September 7, 200864%31%
align=left Public Policy Polling[9] November 2, 200871%26%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Recors Show Baucus Challenger has Outstanding Warrant in Indiana. Flathead Beacon. Gouras. Matt. March 26, 2008. June 13, 2010. July 26, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110726004654/http://www.flatheadbeacon.com/articles/article/records_show_baucus_challenger_has_outstanding_warrant_in_indiana/2848/. live.
  2. Web site: McKee . Jennifer . June 5, 2008 . 16th time a charm for veteran candidate . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20080918050618/http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/06/05/news/local/news03.txt . September 18, 2008 . July 2, 2008.
  3. Web site: Frequent candidate Kelleher dies at 88 . Johnson, Chuck . September 10, 2012 . June 4, 2011 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110604060321/http://www.mtstandard.com/news/state-and-regional/article_5b96d868-8c09-11e0-9957-001cc4c002e0.html . live .
  4. Web site: 2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008 . The Cook Political Report . April 1, 2021 . June 25, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210625160336/https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139080 . live .
  5. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Senate . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028234525/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate . October 28, 2010 . April 16, 2023 . CQ Politics.
  6. Web site: 2008 Senate ratings . Inside Elections . April 1, 2021 . June 25, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210625160805/https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/senate/2008-senate-ratings . live .
  7. Web site: 2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results . Real Clear Politics . August 31, 2021 . October 2, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20211002063110/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/senate/election_2008_senate_races.html . live .
  8. https://web.archive.org/web/20080911110559/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/montana/election_2008_montana_senate Rasmussen Reports
  9. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/surveys/2008_Archives/PPP_Release_Montana_1103623.pdf Public Policy Polling