| Election Name: | 2008 Northern Territory general election |
| Country: | Northern Territory |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2005 Northern Territory general election |
| Previous Year: | 2005 |
| Next Election: | 2012 Northern Territory general election |
| Next Year: | 2012 |
| Seats For Election: | All 25 seats of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly |
| Majority Seats: | 13 |
| Turnout: | 75.7 (4.4 pp) |
| Leader1: | Paul Henderson |
| Leader Since1: | 26 November 2007 |
| Party1: | Australian Labor Party (Northern Territory Branch) |
| Leaders Seat1: | Wanguri |
| Percentage1: | 43.18% |
| Popular Vote1: | 34,557 |
| Swing1: | 8.76 |
| Last Election1: | 19 seats |
| Seats1: | 13 |
| Seat Change1: | 6 |
| Leader2: | Terry Mills |
| Leader Since2: | 29 January 2008 |
| Party2: | Country Liberal Party |
| Leaders Seat2: | Blain |
| Percentage2: | 45.40% |
| Popular Vote2: | 36,334 |
| Swing2: | 9.67 |
| Last Election2: | 4 seats |
| Seats2: | 11 |
| Seat Change2: | 7 |
| 1Blank: | TPP |
| 1Data1: | 49.3% |
| 1Data2: | 50.7% |
| 2Blank: | TPP |
| 2Data1: | 9.2 |
| 2Data2: | 9.2 |
| Map Size: | 300px |
| Chief Minister | |
| Before Election: | Paul Henderson |
| Before Party: | Australian Labor Party (Northern Territory Branch) |
| After Election: | Paul Henderson |
| After Party: | Australian Labor Party (Northern Territory Branch) |
General elections were held in the Northern Territory of Australia on 9 August 2008.[1] Of the 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly, 23 were contested; two safe Labor seats were uncontested. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP), led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson won a narrow third term victory against the opposition centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP), led by Terry Mills. Labor suffered a massive and unexpected swing against it, to hold a one-seat majority in the new parliament.[2] [3] [4]
See main article: Results of the Northern Territory general election, 2008.
| 13 | 1 | 11 | |
| ALP | Ind | CLP |
Arnhem and MacDonnell were won by the ALP by default as no other candidates nominated, and therefore do not contribute to votes in the above result table. The Greens ran in six of the 25 seats, averaging around 16 percent.[5] Minister for Natural Resources, Environment and Heritage, Minister for Parks and Wildlife Len Kiely was defeated as was Minister for Sport and Recreation, Corporate and Information Services Matthew Bonson.
The CLP had dominated the Legislative Assembly from its creation in 1974 until 2001, when Clare Martin led Labor to government by one seat. Four years later, Labor was reelected in a landslide that surprised even the most optimistic Labor observers, reducing the CLP to only four seats. Labor even managed to oust Opposition Leader Denis Burke in his own seat. Martin resigned in 2007, shortly after a federal intervention, and was succeeded by Education Minister Paul Henderson.
In January 2008, Opposition Leader Jodeen Carney faced a challenge from her deputy, Terry Mills. Carney rebuffed a proposal to swap posts with Mills (in which she would have become deputy leader under Mills), instead calling a spill. When the vote was tied, Carney declared that a tie vote was not a vote of confidence and resigned, leaving Mills to take the leadership unopposed. Hoping to take advantage of a booming economy and the recent change in opposition leadership, Henderson opted to call an election a year before it was due.
The writs were dropped only days after the gazetting of new electoral boundaries. The Electoral Commission didn't have nearly enough time to notify voters of their new electorates, and a number of Labor MPs swept into office on the back of the 2005 landslide were unable to connect with new constituents on the hustings.
The CLP regained much of what it had lost in its severe beating of three years prior. Notably, it retook two seats in Palmerston that it had lost to Labor in the 2005 landslide. While the CLP won a slim majority of the two-party vote (aided by two Labor incumbents being reelected unopposed), Labor retained all but one seat in northern Darwin, allowing it to win a third term. Labor was only assured of reelection when it won Martin's old seat of Fannie Bay by a narrow 78 votes.
The following members did not seek another term at the election.
Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.
| Electorate | Held by | Labor candidate | CLP candidate | Greens candidate | Independent candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Scrymgour | Tristan Mungatopi Angie Siebert | Jone Lotu | ||||||
| John Gaynor | Jodeen Carney | Linda Chellew | ||||||
| Malarndirri McCarthy | ||||||||
| Mick Adams | Randall Gould Barry Nattrass | |||||||
| Terry Mills | ||||||||
| Aaron Dick | Jane Clark | Eli Melky | ||||||
| James Burke | ||||||||
| Kon Vatskalis | Gary Haslett | |||||||
| Rob Knight | Wayne Connop | David Pollock | August Stevens | |||||
| Chris Natt | Justin Tutty | |||||||
| Matthew Bonson | ||||||||
| Ted Warren | ||||||||
| Jo Nixon | Matt Conlan | Lenny Aronsten | ||||||
| Chris Burns | Jo Sangster | |||||||
| Delia Lawrie | Tony Bacus | Dorothy Fox Natalie Hunter | ||||||
| Sharon Hillen | Toni Tapp Coutts | |||||||
| Alison Anderson | ||||||||
| Justine Luders-Searle | Maureen Kohlman | Gerry Wood | ||||||
| Djwalpi Marika | ||||||||
| Jane Aagaard | Peter Manning | Emma Young | ||||||
| Kerry Sacilotto | Gary Abbott | |||||||
| Len Kiely | ||||||||
| Karl Hampton | Rex Granites Japanangka | |||||||
| Paul Henderson | Kerry Kyriacou | Duncan Dean |
| Seat | Pre-2008 | Swing | Post-2008 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Member | Margin | Margin | Member | Party | |||||||
| Braitling | Independent | Loraine Braham | 0.9 | N/A | 23.6* | Adam Giles | Country Liberal | |||||
| Brennan | Labor | James Burke | 0.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | Peter Chandler | Country Liberal | |||||
| Drysdale | Labor | Chris Natt | −0.5 | 9.6 | 10.1 | Ross Bohlin | Country Liberal | |||||
| Fong Lim | Labor | notional - new seat | 11.5 | 13.7 | 2.2 | Dave Tollner | Country Liberal | |||||
| Goyder | Labor | Ted Warren | -0.5 | 7.4 | 7.9 | Kezia Purick | Country Liberal | |||||
| Port Darwin | Labor | Kerry Sacilotto | 1.9 | 5.0 | 3.0 | John Elferink | Country Liberal | |||||
| Sanderson | Labor | Len Kiely | 10.0 | 17.4 | 7.4 | Peter Styles | Country Liberal | |||||
The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.[6] [7]
Incumbent members who have become and remained an independent since the 2012 election are indicated in grey.
Members listed in italics did not re-contest their seat at the election.
| Labor seats | ||||
| Marginal | ||||
| Brennan | James Burke | ALP | 0.6 | |
| Port Darwin | Kerry Sacilotto | ALP | 1.9 | |
| Fairly safe | ||||
| Safe | ||||
| Sanderson | Len Kiely | ALP | 10.0 | |
| Fong Lim | Matthew Bonson | ALP | 11.5 | |
| Fannie Bay | Clare Martin | ALP | 15.7 | |
| Nightcliff | Jane Aagaard | ALP | 15.7 | |
| Daly | Robert Knight | ALP | 15.8 | |
| Karama | Delia Lawrie | ALP | 16.0 | |
| Macdonnell | Alison Anderson | ALP | 16.5 | |
| Johnston | Chris Burns | ALP | 16.8 | |
| Casuarina | Kon Vatskalis | ALP | 18.3 | |
| Stuart | Karl Hampton | ALP | 18.9 | |
| Very safe | ||||
| Wanguri | Paul Henderson | ALP | 20.8 | |
| Arnhem | Malarndirri McCarthy | ALP | 21.3 | |
| Arafura | Marion Scrymgour | ALP | 23.6 | |
| Barkly | Elliot McAdam | ALP | 24.2 | |
| Nhulunbuy | Syd Stirling | ALP | 25.5 | |
| Country Liberal seats | ||||
| Marginal | ||||
| Greatorex | Matt Conlan | CLP | 0.4 | |
| Drysdale | Chris Natt | CLP | 0.5 | |
| Goyder | Ted Warren | CLP | 0.5 | |
| Katherine | Fay Miller | CLP | 2.7 | |
| Blain | Terry Mills | CLP | 5.7 | |
| Fairly safe | ||||
| Araluen | Jodeen Carney | CLP | 7.5 | |
| Independent seats | ||||
| Braitling | Loraine Braham | IND | 0.9 v CLP | |
| Nelson | Gerry Wood | IND | 16.6 v CLP | |
| Labor seats | ||||
| Marginal | ||||
| Fannie Bay | Michael Gunner | ALP | 1.1 | |
| Daly | Robert Knight | ALP | 5.6 | |
| Fairly safe | ||||
| Johnston | Chris Burns | ALP | 8.1 | |
| Safe | ||||
| Nightcliff | Jane Aagaard | ALP | 10.7 | |
| Karama | Delia Lawrie | ALP | 10.8 | |
| Arafura | Marion Scrymgour | ALP | 14.0 | |
| Casuarina | Kon Vatskalis | ALP | 14.2 | |
| Wanguri | Paul Henderson | ALP | 14.9 | |
| Stuart | Karl Hampton | ALP | 15.1 | |
| Barkly | Gerry McCarthy | ALP | 15.6 | |
| Very safe | ||||
| Nhulunbuy | Lynne Walker | ALP | 24.2 | |
| Arnhem | Malarndirri McCarthy | ALP | Unopp | |
| Macdonnell | Alison Anderson | ALP | Unopp | |
| Country Liberal seats | ||||
| Marginal | ||||
| Fong Lim | Dave Tollner | CLP | 2.1 | |
| Brennan | Peter Chandler | CLP | 2.6 | |
| Port Darwin | John Elferink | CLP | 2.8 | |
| Fairly safe | ||||
| Sanderson | Peter Styles | CLP | 6.4 | |
| Goyder | Kezia Purick | CLP | 8.4 | |
| Katherine | Willem W-v-Holthe | CLP | 8.4 | |
| Safe | ||||
| Drysdale | Ross Bohlin | CLP | 10.1 | |
| Blain | Terry Mills | CLP | 11.6 | |
| Greatorex | Matt Conlan | CLP | 16.5 | |
| Very safe | ||||
| Braitling | Adam Giles | CLP | 20.3 v GRN | |
| Araluen | Jodeen Carney | CLP | 24.7 | |
| Independent seats | ||||
| Nelson | Gerry Wood | IND | 28.7 v CLP | |