2008 Belizean general election explained

Country:Belize
Type:parliamentary
Previous Election:2003 Belizean general election
Previous Year:2003
Next Election:2012 Belizean general election
Next Year:2012
Seats For Election:All 31 seats in the House of Representatives
Majority Seats:16
Election Date:7 February 2008
Turnout:77.18%
Image1:Belizean Prime Minister, Dean Barrow in London, 27 June 2013 (cropped).jpg
Leader1:Dean Barrow
Party1:United Democratic Party (Belize)
Popular Vote1:66,203
Percentage1:56.61%
Swing1:17.2
Last Election1:7 seats
Seats1:25
Seat Change1:18
Leader2:Said Musa
Party2:People's United Party
Popular Vote2:47,624
Percentage2:40.72%
Swing2:12.44
Last Election2:22 seats
Seats2:6
Seat Change2:16
Prime Minister
Posttitle:Subsequent Prime Minister
Before Election:Said Musa
Before Party:People's United Party
After Election:Dean Barrow
After Party:United Democratic Party (Belize)

General elections were held in Belize on 7 February 2008. Beginning with this election, Belizeans elected 31 members to the House of Representatives of Belize instead of 29. In what was considered an upset, the opposition United Democratic Party (UDP) won the election with 25 out of 31 seats; the ruling People's United Party won six.[1]

The elections were held alongside a constitutional referendum had also been called to determine the views of Belizeans on an elected Senate.

Background

In August 2003 Cayo South Area Rep. Agripino Cawich of the PUP died, triggering a by-election in the constituency, only the second held in Belize since independence. The by-election was won by the UDP's John Saldivar, who had lost to Cawich in the general election earlier in 2003. Saldivar's win flipped the constituency to the UDP column and increased the party's caucus to eight for the remainder of the term.[2]

Beginning in March 2007 and continuing through April 22, Belize's 193 villages held council elections on Sundays of every weekend except for Easter. While the Village Council elections are supposed to be non-partisan, the major parties and independents considered them a litmus test for the general elections. From the very beginning, back and forth charges of inaccurate statistics and party favoritism have stained the elections, with both the blue and the red claiming victory in the majority of contested seats. Press releases from both parties claim victory. The results are detailed below.

Results of Village Council elections 2007[3]

UDP PUPIndependent
114 (own estimate)103 (own estimate)16 (PUP estimate)
74 (PUP estimate)67 (UDP estimate)9 (UDP estimate)

Prime Minister Said Musa twice had chances to dissolve the House of Representatives in session, on November 16, 2007 and December 19, 2007; both times he passed. However, Musa committed to calling elections before March 2008, the date when they were last held. With the announcement on Monday, January 7, 2008, the House was dissolved from that date. 93 candidates from six parties were nominated Monday, January 21, 2008 and elections were held on Thursday, February 7, 2008. The date chosen was one day behind Ash Wednesday, February 6; according to local media three elections have been called on an Ash Wednesday during Musa's term, of which he has won two.

Campaign

People's United Party

Campaigning kicked off in earnest from as early as summer 2007. The ruling PUP have rolled out a number of programs designed to woo the electorate, including the promise of free textbooks for primary school students,[4] improved infrastructure on the deep southside of Belize City[5] and a planned rollout of a health insurance scheme in early 2008. Prime Minister Said Musa spent much of the early summer touring the South and West and continued his tour of the country in September and October. The PUP held a press conference on January 7, 2008 and announced pay increases for soldiers, teachers and public officers to take place after the general election. They released their manifesto "Believe in Belize-The BLUEprint" on January 22.

United Democratic Party

The United Democratic Party, for its part, concentrated on shoring up support[6] in the districts and fighting fires in the various municipal governments they have controlled since March 2006. Party Leader Dean Barrow has likewise toured much of the country since June. Both parties' journalism machinery have dug up various scandals on either side. The Elections and Boundaries Department have noted an increase[7] in the number of voter transfers between divisions,[8] usually done in July and August.

The UDP released its election manifesto, Imagine the Possibilities: 2008-13, to a cheering crowd of supporters at its party headquarters in Belize City on January 16, 2008.

Third party announcements

Several third parties participated. Among them are established parties Vision Inspired by the People out of Belmopan and We the People Reform Movement from the North, Cornelius Dueck's National Reform Party and Wil Maheia's People's National Party

Attempts by third parties to unify have largely proven unsuccessful. The Amandala of March 18, 2007 indicated that the PNP and WTP had formed an alliance (later named the National Belizean Alliance (NBA)) and were expected to announce their combined slate soon. The parties wrote joint letters to the Amandala in pre-election issues.

Each party separately nominated candidates: VIP nominated 11 candidates, as did the NRP, and the NBA nominated four.

In the Amandala of Sunday, March 11, former party the National Reality Truth Creation Party returned to the political scene with a full page ad endorsing one Ebony Babb for Queen's Square; the ad also extolled the Christian virtues of the party, led by musician Jorge Ernesto Babb. The ad appealed to all "natural Creole born Belizeans" to support the NRTCP in 2008. Subsequent announcements by the NRTCP in the Amandala include Babb himself as a candidate in Freetown.

In November 2007, the major parties confronted each other over an inflammatory political sign[9] in Belize City;[10] a number of individuals were either arrested or threatened with arrest, including Mayor Zenaida Moya.[11] The incident drew the ire of third parties such as the NBA and VIP[12] and led to the signing of a "gentleman's agreement between all major political parties at the request of the Police Department. Despite the signing of this agreement, reports of continued vandalism of signs and inflammatory television commercials continue to circulate.

Campaign issues

Candidates

This list represents the nominations received by the Elections and Boundaries Department on Nomination Day, January 21.Bold indicates incumbent.

ConstituencyPUPUDPVIPNRPNBA
AlbertMark Espat Tom Morrison
Belize Rural CentralRalph Fonseca[15] Michael HutchinsonHarrisford Myers
Belize Rural NorthEarl PerezEdmond Castro
Belize Rural SouthMerlene SpainManuel Heredia Jr.Ernesto Caliz
BelmopanRolando Zetina [16] John Saldivar[17] Paul Morgan
Caribbean ShoresJose CoyeCarlos Perdomo
Cayo CentralMario CastellañosRene MonteroGilroy RequeñaGeorge Boiton Jr.
Cayo NorthOtto ColemanSalvador FernandezAlden McDougal
Cayo NortheastOrlando HabetElvin PennerCornelius Dueck
Cayo SouthCharles GalvezRamon WitzHubert EnriquezRichard Smith
Cayo WestKendall MendezErwin ContrerasMartha Hendricks
ColletCarolyn Trench-SandifordPatrick FaberPatrick Rogers
Corozal BayJuan Vildo MarinPablo Marin
Corozal NorthValdemar CastilloNemencio Acosta
Corozal SoutheastFlorencio Marin Jr.[18] Servando Samos
Corozal SouthwestGregorio GarciaGabriel Martinez
DangrigaCassian NunezArturo RochesQuentin MejiaDenton Castillo
Fort GeorgeSaid MusaDr. George Gough
FreetownFrancis FonsecaMichael Peyrefitte
Lake IndependenceCordel HydeVanley Jenkins"Seagull" Joseph MartinezGary Lambey
MesopotamiaAustin WaightMichael Finnegan
Orange Walk CentralJohnny BriceñoRosendo UrbinaAlvaro Espejo
Orange Walk EastMarco Tulio MendezMarcel CardonaPabel Torres
Orange Walk NorthServulo BaezaGaspar VegaHilberto Nah
Orange Walk SouthJose MaiMark PechEdwardo MelendezSalustiano Lizama
PickstockGodfrey SmithWilfred Elrington
Port LoyolaOscar RosadoAnthony MartinezErwin X (Jones)
Queen's SquareAnthony SylvesterDean Barrow
Stann Creek WestRodwell FergusonMelvin HulseMateo Polanco
Toledo EastMike EspatEden MartinezWil Maheia
Toledo WestMarcial MesJuan CoyMax ChoFermin ChocDionisio Chuc

Others:

Max Samuels in Belize Rural North, Florencio Marin Senior in Corozal South East, Dave Burgos in Orange Walk East, Ismael Cal in Orange Walk South, Ainslie Leslie in Cayo North and Sylvia Flores in Dangriga are not seeking reelection. All represented the People's United Party in their constituencies.

[19]

Opinion polls

The Society for the Promotion of Education and Research (SPEAR) released the results of an opinion poll conducted in conjunction with SJC's Belizean Studies Centre in October 2005. In an election 49% of voters would consider voting for a third party; between the current parties 34.5% said they would vote for the PUP and the rest for the UDP.[20]

As a followup, SPEAR conducted a second poll released on October 31, 2006 ([21]). When asked who they would vote for, 32% said UDP, 11.8% PUP and 22% a third party. Smaller numbers either said they would not vote at all or declined to say who they would vote for. The nation's largest newspaper, the Amandala, headlined[22] that more than half of Belizeans had rejected the PUP and UDP by either supporting a third party or declining to vote; this notion was soundly rejected by the UDP in particular and resulted in back and forth editorial responses in the Amandala and the UDP's Guardian in November, with the UDP charging that publisher Evan X Hyde was playing into the PUP's hands by supporting third parties openly instead of the UDP, and Amandala reiterating that its policy was of Belizeans First[23] and that neither party had thoroughly considered the welfare of "roots" Belizeans since Independence.In March 2007, the University of Belize and Saint John's College Junior College's Belizean Studies Centre conducted a one-weekend poll of 430 randomly selected persons seeking opinions on the 2008 elections.[24] The poll was supervised by UB Registrar Dr. Roy Young and BSC's Yasmine Andrews. On the question of approval of party leaders, the UDP's Dean Barrow led all contestants with 55.7% approval; sitting Prime Minister Said Musa scored 14.9%, while independent leaders rated below that. Results by party were similar, with the UDP scoring 55.5%, the PUP 16% and independents scores ranging from 2 to 9%.

Notes and References

  1. http://www.caribbean360.com/News/Caribbean/Stories/2008/02/08/NEWS0000005437.html UDP causes major upset in Belize elections
  2. http://www.elections.gov.bz/modules/wfdownloads/visit.php?cid=2&lid=36 Result of By-election 2003
  3. http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=18385 Channel5Belize.COM
  4. Web site: Channel5Belize.COM . 2007-08-02 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20070927010846/http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=18847 . 2007-09-27 . Channel 5 News, July 9, 2007: Government plan for free textbooks
  5. Web site: Channel5Belize.COM . 2007-08-02 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20070929125250/http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=18858 . 2007-09-29 . Channel 5 News, July 10, 2007: Southside project under fire from area rep
  6. http://www.7newsbelize.com/archive/08010709.html{{dead link|date=October 2016 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} 7 News, August 2, 2007: Barrow on UDP's readiness
  7. https://web.archive.org/web/20071004211033/http://www.7newsbelize.com/archive/08010708.html 7 News, August 2, 2007: Finnegan and voter transfers
  8. http://www.7newsbelize.com/archive/08010707.html{{dead link|date=October 2016 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} 7 News, August 2, 2007: 1 more month to transfer
  9. http://www.amandala.com.bz/index.php?id=6279 PUP, UDP eyeball to eyeball over sign
  10. Web site: Channel5Belize.COM . 2007-11-17 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20080213011226/http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=19612 . 2008-02-13 . News 5 story on incident
  11. Web site: Channel5Belize.COM . 2007-11-17 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20080213011233/http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=19622 . 2008-02-13 . Follow-up report
  12. Amandala, November 18, 2007.
  13. http://www.7newsbelize.com/archive/12210701.html7News, Dec. 21, 2007.
  14. Web site: Channel5Belize.COM . 2007-12-24 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20080213011237/http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=19857 . 2008-02-13 . No election date but referendum on elected Senate proposed, Channel 5, Dec. 19, 2007.
  15. Endorsed June 24.http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=18712
  16. Endorsed June 26.http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=18698
  17. Currently representing Cayo South.
  18. son of current area rep
  19. Web site: Channel5Belize.COM . 2008-01-25 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20080213011243/http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=20072 . 2008-02-13 . Channel 5 News, January 23, 2008.
  20. Web site: New Poll Shows Musa's Approval Rating at 20% . www.7newsbelize.com . 22 May 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20060714033020/http://www.7newsbelize.com/archive/10170505.html . 14 July 2006 . dead.
  21. Web site: Channel5Belize.COM . 2007-06-20 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20070929125240/http://www.channel5belize.com/archive_detail_story.php?story_id=17316 . 2007-09-29 . News 5 report
  22. http://www.amandala.com.bz/index.php?id=60 51% of Belizeans reject PUP, UDP! (Amandala)
  23. http://www.amandala.com.bz/index.php?id=20 Belize News - Belize's Leading Newspaper | Belize's Breaking News - Amandala Online
  24. https://web.archive.org/web/20071007205402/http://www.7newsbelize.com/archive/03200704.html 7 News story by Alfonso Noble