| Election Name: | 2008 Bavarian state election |
| Country: | Bavaria |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2003 Bavarian state election |
| Previous Year: | 2003 |
| Next Election: | 2013 Bavarian state election |
| Next Year: | 2013 |
| Seats For Election: | All 187 seats in the Landtag of Bavaria |
| Majority Seats: | 94 |
| Election Date: | 28 September 2008 |
| Turnout: | 10,612,275 (58.1%) 1.0% |
| Leader1: | Günther Beckstein |
| Party1: | Christian Social Union in Bavaria |
| Last Election1: | 124 seats, 60.7% |
| Seats1: | 92 |
| Popular Vote1: | 4,603,960 |
| Seat Change1: | 32 |
| Percentage1: | 43.4% |
| Swing1: | 17.3% |
| Party2: | Social Democratic Party of Germany |
| Last Election2: | 41 seats, 19.6% |
| Seats2: | 39 |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,972,437 |
| Seat Change2: | 2 |
| Percentage2: | 18.6% |
| Swing2: | 1.0% |
| Leader3: | Hubert Aiwanger |
| Party3: | Free Voters of Bavaria |
| Last Election3: | 0 seats, 4.0% |
| Seats3: | 21 |
| Popular Vote3: | 1,085,896 |
| Seat Change3: | 21 |
| Percentage3: | 10.2% |
| Swing3: | 6.2% |
| Leader4: | Sepp Daxenberger |
| Party4: | Alliance '90/The Greens |
| Last Election4: | 15 seats, 7.7% |
| Seats4: | 19 |
| Popular Vote4: | 999,111 |
| Seat Change4: | 4 |
| Percentage4: | 9.4% |
| Swing4: | 1.7% |
| Leader5: | Martin Zeil |
| Party5: | Free Democratic Party (Germany) |
| Last Election5: | 0 seats, 2.6% |
| Seats5: | 16 |
| Popular Vote5: | 847,227 |
| Seat Change5: | 16 |
| Percentage5: | 8.0% |
| Swing5: | 5.4% |
| Map Size: | 300px |
| Minister-President | |
| Before Election: | Günther Beckstein |
| Before Party: | Christian Social Union of Bavaria |
| After Election: | Horst Seehofer |
| After Party: | Christian Social Union of Bavaria |
The 2008 Bavarian state election was held on 28 September 2008 to elect the members of the Landtag of Bavaria. The result was a historic defeat for the Christian Social Union (CSU), which had governed with a majority uninterrupted since 1962, and had won over 60% of the vote in the 2003 election. Despite polling suggesting that the party would retain its majority with losses, it suffered a 17% swing and came up two seats short of a majority, its worst result since 1954. Minister-President and CSU leader Günther Beckstein subsequently resigned from both posts, and the Landtag elected Horst Seehofer as his successor after the CSU and Free Democratic Party (FDP) came to a coalition agreement.
The Free Voters of Bavaria entered the Landtag for the first time with 10% of the vote; the FDP also won seats for the first time in 14 years. The Left competed in its first Bavarian election, recording a modest result of 4.3%, but failing to win any seats.
The table below lists parties represented in the 15th Landtag of Bavaria.
| Name | Ideology | Leader(s) | 2003 result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | |||||||
| bgcolor= | CSU | Christian Social Union in Bavaria | Christian democracy | Günther Beckstein | 60.7% | |||
| bgcolor= | SPD | Social Democratic Party of Germany | Social democracy | Franz Maget | 19.6% | |||
| bgcolor= | Grüne | Alliance 90/The Greens | Green politics | Sepp Daxenberger | 7.7% | |||
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample size | CSU | SPD | Grüne | FW | FDP | Linke | ÖDP | Others | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 state election | data-sort-value="2008-09-28" | 28 Sep 2008 | – | 43.4 | 18.6 | 9.4 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 4.1 | 24.8 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2008-09-22" | 20–21 Sep 2008 | 1,010 | 48 | 19 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 29 | ||
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2008-09-23" | 10–18 Sep 2008 | 1,010 | 49 | 20 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 5 | – | 3 | 29 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | data-sort-value="2008-09-19" | 16–18 Sep 2008 | 1,105 | 47 | 20 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 4 | – | 4 | 27 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2008-09-18" | 15–17 Sep 2008 | 1,000 | 47 | 21 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 4 | – | 4 | 26 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2008-09-17" | 8–12 Sep 2008 | 1,101 | 50 | 19 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 31 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2008-09-09" | 6–8 Sep 2008 | 1,006 | 49 | 19 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 30 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | data-sort-value="2008-08-01" | 28–30 Jul 2008 | 1,038 | 50 | 20 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 30 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2008-07-30" | 24–28 Jul 2008 | 1,000 | 48 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 4 | – | 4 | 26 | ||
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2008-07-19" | 23 Jun–17 Jul 2008 | ~500 | 51 | 19 | 9 | – | 7 | 5 | – | 9 | 32 | ||
| TNS Infratest | data-sort-value="2008-07-11" | 3–8 Jul 2008 | 1,000 | 48 | 21 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 4 | – | 3 | 27 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2008-07-10" | 8–9 Jul 2008 | 1,006 | 50 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 30 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2008-06-05" | 2–6 Jun 2008 | 1,009 | 49 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 29 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2008-05-01" | 28–30 Apr 2008 | 1,000 | 48 | 23 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 4 | – | 4 | 25 | ||
| mifm München | data-sort-value="2008-04-25" | 21–23 Apr 2008 | 1,000 | 44 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 3 | – | 4 | 24 | ||
| mifm München | data-sort-value="2008-04-25" | 4–14 Apr 2008 | 1,001 | 40 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 4 | – | 3 | 21 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2008-04-19" | 8–14 Apr 2008 | 1,010 | 51 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 31 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2008-04-07" | 31 Mar–6 Apr 2008 | 1,512 | 50 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 29 | ||
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2008-03-02" | 13–27 Feb 2008 | ~500 | 51 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 4 | – | 6 | 32 | ||
| mifm München | data-sort-value="2008-02-15" | 31 Jan–7 Feb 2008 | 1,000 | 50 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 3 | – | 5 | 30 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2008-01-09" | 3–7 Jan 2008 | 1,000 | 52 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 3 | – | 6 | 31 | ||
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2008-01-05" | 10 Dec 2007–2 Jan 2008 | 800 | 54 | 20 | 10 | – | 6 | 4 | – | 6 | 34 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2008-01-04" | 2–3 Jan 2008 | 1,004 | 56 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 34 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2007-12-17" | 12–17 Dec 2007 | 1,010 | 55 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 3 | – | 4 | 35 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-11-29" | 5–27 Nov 2007 | 1,002 | 56 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 4 | – | 7 | 39 | ||
| mifm München | data-sort-value="2007-11-14" | 29 Oct–7 Nov 2007 | 1,000 | 53.8 | 19.1 | 9.9 | 1.7 | 7 | 3.2 | – | 5.3 | 34.7 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2007-10-22" | 21–22 Oct 2007 | 1,001 | 54 | 23 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 31 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | data-sort-value="2007-09-27" | 24–26 Sep 2007 | 1,143 | 56 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 3 | – | 2 | 34 | ||
| mifm München | data-sort-value="2007-09-24" | 7–15 Sep 2007 | 1,003 | 53 | 17 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1.7 | 4.9 | 36 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-09-21" | 29 Aug–17 Sep 2007 | 1,003 | 57 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | – | 6 | 38 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-08-02" | 28–30 Jul 2007 | 1,002 | 58 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | – | 6 | 41 | ||
| TNS Infratest | data-sort-value="2007-07-24" | 17–19 Jul 2007 | 1,000 | 54 | 22 | 11 | – | 5 | 3 | – | 5 | 32 | ||
| dimap | data-sort-value="2007-07-23" | 13–19 Jul 2007 | 1,000 | 58 | 18 | 11 | – | 4 | 4 | – | 5 | 40 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2007-06-20" | 13–18 Jun 2007 | 1,010 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 3 | – | 4 | 36 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-06-21" | 4–14 Jun 2007 | 1,001 | 56 | 16 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 40 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-05-10" | 25 Apr–8 May 2007 | 1,036 | 56 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | – | 6 | 39 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-04-05" | 19 Mar–2 Apr 2007 | 1,012 | 54 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 3 | – | 7 | 34 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2007-03-28" | 22–25 Mar 2007 | 1,002 | 53 | 23 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | – | 4 | 30 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2007-03-09" | 5–8 Mar 2007 | 1,012 | 53 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 33 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-03-01" | 15–26 Feb 2007 | 1,002 | 53 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 34 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2007-01-26" | 22–25 Jan 2007 | 1,011 | 52 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 30 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2007-01-21" | 19–20 Jan 2007 | 1,000 | 52 | 24 | 9 | – | 7 | – | – | 8 | 28 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2007-01-15" | 15 Jan 2007 | 1,000 | 50 | 24 | 11 | – | 8 | – | – | 7 | 26 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-01-15" | 10–12 Jan 2007 | 1,007 | 49 | 22 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 4 | – | 7 | 27 | ||
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlen | data-sort-value="2007-01-13" | 12–13 Jan 2007 | 1,142 | 45 | 27 | 10 | – | 9 | – | – | 9 | 18 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2007-01-07" | 3–4 Jan 2007 | 1,000 | 54 | 22 | 9 | – | 7 | – | – | 8 | 32 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2007-01-03" | 27–29 Dec 2006 | 1,009 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 4 | – | 7 | 36 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2006-12-28" | 18–23 Dec 2006 | 1,006 | 54 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 34 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2006-12-06" | 24 Nov–5 Dec 2006 | 1,026 | 56 | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 4 | – | 6 | 39 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2006-11-09" | 23 Oct–7 Nov 2006 | 1,004 | 54 | 19 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | – | 6 | 35 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2006-10-12" | 6–8 Oct 2006 | 1,002 | 53 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 31 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2006-10-05" | 18 Sep–4 Oct 2006 | 1,006 | 54 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 3 | – | 6 | 36 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2006-10-04" | 28 Sep–1 Oct 2006 | 1,000 | 49 | 24 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 1 | – | 6 | 25 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2006-09-07" | 20 Aug–5 Sep 2006 | 1,005 | 58 | 16 | 10 | – | 6 | 3 | – | 7 | 42 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2006-07-13" | 3–12 Jul 2006 | 1,004 | 56 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 4 | – | 5 | 40 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2006-06-19" | 9–14 Jun 2006 | 1,002 | 54 | 18 | 11 | 2.0 | 8 | 2.5 | – | 4.5 | 36 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2006-05-18" | 12–17 May 2006 | 1,002 | 52 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 10 | 3 | – | 5 | 34 | ||
| Emnid | data-sort-value="2006-05-27" | 20 Apr–9 May 2006 | 1,000 | 53 | 23 | 9 | – | 5 | – | – | 10 | 30 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2006-02-28" | 22–24 Feb 2006 | 1,003 | 52 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 3 | – | 5 | 31 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2006-01-18" | 12–15 Jan 2006 | 1,000 | 53 | 22 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 2 | – | 4 | 31 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2006-01-14" | 4–11 Jan 2006 | 1,114 | 49 | 24 | 10 | – | 6 | 3 | – | 8 | 25 | ||
| Peinelt | data-sort-value="2006-01-10" | 17 Nov–9 Dec 2005 | 1,067 | 45.9 | 21.5 | 8.6 | 4.2 | 11.8 | – | – | 8.0 | 24.4 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2006-01-02" | 17–21 Dec 2005 | 1,001 | 56 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 34 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2005-11-17" | 15–16 Nov 2005 | 1,000 | 45 | 24 | 10 | – | 11 | 3 | – | 7 | 21 | ||
| Forsa | data-sort-value="2005-11-09" | 4–7 Nov 2005 | 1,001 | 49 | 21 | 9 | – | 9 | 4 | – | 8 | 28 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2005-07-27" | 21–24 Jul 2005 | 1,000 | 59 | 18 | 9 | – | 4 | 4 | – | 6 | 41 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2005-01-12" | 5–9 Jan 2005 | 1,000 | 56 | 22 | 10 | – | 5 | – | – | 7 | 34 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2004-07-28" | 21–25 Jul 2004 | 1,000 | 58 | 17 | 12 | – | 5 | – | – | 8 | 41 | ||
| GMS | data-sort-value="2004-03-20" | 17–20 Mar 2004 | 1,009 | 61.0 | 19.0 | 10.0 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 42 | ||
| Infratest dimap | data-sort-value="2004-01-07" | 2–5 Jan 2004 | 1,000 | 62 | 19 | 9 | – | 3 | – | – | 7 | 43 | ||
| 2003 state election | data-sort-value="2003-09-21" | 21 Sep 2003 | – | 60.7 | 19.6 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 2.6 | – | 2.0 | 3.4 | 41.1 |