2007 Ontario general election explained

The 2007 Ontario general election was held on October 10, 2007, to elect members (MPPs) of the 39th Legislative Assembly of the Province of Ontario, Canada. The Liberals under Premier Dalton McGuinty won the election with a majority government, winning 71 out of a possible 107 seats with 42.2% of the popular vote. The election saw the third-lowest voter turnout in Ontario provincial elections, setting a then record for the lowest voter turnout with 52.8% of people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record of 54.7% in the 1923 election,^[1] but would end up being surpassed in the 2011 and 2022 elections.

As a result of legislation passed by the Legislature in 2004, election dates are now fixed by formula so that an election is held approximately four years after the previous election, unless the government is defeated by a vote of "no confidence" in the Legislature. Previously, the governing party had considerable flexibility to determine the date of an election anywhere up to five years of being elected. The date of this election was originally presumed to be October 4, 2007;^[2] however, the law fixes the date on the first Thursday of October or on any day within seven days thereof if required to accommodate a date of "religious or cultural significance". The date was set as October 10, 2007, to avoid a conflict with the Jewish holiday of Shemini Atzeret, which fell on October 4, 2007.^[2]

In the same election, there was a provincial referendum on whether to change from first-past-the-post to mixed member proportional representation, as recommended by the Ontario Citizens' Assembly on Electoral Reform. This measure failed, with 37% of the participating electorate and 5 out of 107 ridings voting for the new system; a 60% supermajority was required province-wide, with at least 2/3 of the ridings also supporting it by a simple majority.^[3]

Issues

Although all four parties released a variety of detailed platform proposals, the campaign was dominated almost entirely by John Tory's promise to extend public funding to Ontario's faith-based schools.^[4]

In Ontario at present, the Catholic school system is fully funded in the same manner as public schools. However, other religious schools, such as Jewish, Muslim or Evangelical Christian schools, are not funded by the province. This discrepancy has been cited as discriminatory by both the Supreme Court of Canada and the United Nations Human Rights Committee, although to date the province has taken no action to change its existing school funding policies, on the grounds that Catholic school funding in the province is mandated by the Constitution of Canada.

Tory's proposal to extend funding to religious schools was controversial, with polls confirming that a clear majority of Ontarians opposed the proposal. Even some of Tory's own caucus, most notably Bill Murdoch and Garfield Dunlop, openly criticized the proposal during the election campaign. After heavy opposition, Tory changed his position later in the campaign, promising a free vote on the issue.^[5]

The Liberals and the NDP were both opposed to non-Catholic religious school funding, while the Green Party proposed eliminating the province's existing Catholic school funding in favour of a single public school board. Liberal opposition to non-Catholic religious school funding, especially private Muslim schools, appealed to Islamophobic sentiment in the province.^{[6] [7]}

There was a brief flurry of interest in health care issues when John Tory emphasized his support for an increasing role for the private sector in health care.

In the final week of the campaign, NDP leader Howard Hampton criticized the media for focusing almost entirely on religious schools and virtually ignoring other issues.

Redistribution

With the passing of Bill 214 and the Representation Act, 2005 in the year 2005, Ontario's electoral boundaries were no longer identical to the federal electoral boundaries.^[8] The province was now divided into 11 northern electoral districts that were identical, except for a minor boundary adjustment, to the ones that existed on October 2, 2003, and 96 southern electoral districts that were identical to their federal counterparts as they existed on September 1, 2004.^[8]

The 11 northern electoral districts were: Algoma—Manitoulin, Kenora—Rainy River, Nickel Belt, Nipissing, Parry Sound—Muskoka, Sault Ste. Marie, Sudbury, Thunder Bay—Atikokan, Thunder Bay—Superior North, Timiskaming—Cochrane, and Timmins—James Bay.^[8]

As a result of the redistribution, none of the three major parties took fewer seats than it held at the dissolution of the previous legislature. The Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives each gained seats, while the New Democratic Party's seat total remained unchanged.

Results

|- style="background-color:#CCCCCC"!rowspan="2" colspan="2" style="text-align:left;" |Party!rowspan="2" style="text-align:left;" |Party leader!rowspan="2"|

Candidates!colspan="4" style="text-align:center;" |Seats!colspan="3" style="text-align:center;" |Popular vote|- style="background-color:#CCCCCC"| style="text-align:center;" |2003| style="text-align:center;font-size:80%;" |Dissol.| style="text-align:center;" |2007| style="text-align:center;" |Change| style="text-align:center;" |#| style="text-align:center;" |%| style="text-align:center;" |Change| style="text-align:left;" |Dalton McGuinty| style="text-align:right;" |107| style="text-align:right;" |72| style="text-align:right;" |67| style="text-align:right;" |71| style="text-align:right;" |+6.0%| style="text-align:right;" |1,869,273| style="text-align:right;" |42.25%| style="text-align:right;" |-4.22%| style="text-align:left;" |John Tory| style="text-align:right;" |107| style="text-align:right;" |24| style="text-align:right;" |25| style="text-align:right;" |26| style="text-align:right;" |+4.0%| style="text-align:right;" |1,398,806| style="text-align:right;" |31.62%| style="text-align:right;" |-3.05%| style="text-align:left;" |Howard Hampton| style="text-align:right;" |107| style="text-align:right;" |7| style="text-align:right;" |10| style="text-align:right;" |10| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |741,465| style="text-align:right;" |16.77%| style="text-align:right;" |+2.08%| style="text-align:left;" |Frank de Jong| style="text-align:right;" |107| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |354,897| style="text-align:right;" |8.02%| style="text-align:right;" |+5.20%| style="text-align:left;" |Giuseppe Gori| style="text-align:right;" |83| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |35,702| style="text-align:right;" |0.81%| style="text-align:right;" |+0.01%| style="text-align:left;" |Sam Apelbaum| style="text-align:right;" |25| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |9,249| style="text-align:right;" |0.21%| style="text-align:right;" |+0.17%| style="text-align:left;" |Paul McKeever| style="text-align:right;" |15| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |3,003| style="text-align:right;" |0.07%| style="text-align:right;" |-0.13%| style="text-align:left;" |Elizabeth Rowley| style="text-align:right;" |8| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |1,603| style="text-align:right;" |0.04%| style="text-align:right;" |-0.01%| style="text-align:left;" |Danish Ahmed| style="text-align:right;" |2| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |502| style="text-align:right;" |0.01%| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:left;" |Eileen Butson| style="text-align:right;" |2| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |446| style="text-align:right;" |0.01%| style="text-align:right;" |+0.00%| style="text-align:left;" |Brad Harness| style="text-align:right;" |2| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |354| style="text-align:right;" |0.01%| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:left;" |Trueman Tuck| style="text-align:right;" |2| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |272| style="text-align:right;" |0.01%| style="text-align:right;" |-| colspan=2 style="text-align:left;" |Independents and no affiliation| style="text-align:right;" |32| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |-| style="text-align:right;" |8,326| style="text-align:right;" |0.19%| style="text-align:right;" |-0.11%| style="text-align:left;" colspan="4" |Vacant| style="text-align:right;" |1| style="text-align:center;" colspan="5" | |-| style="text-align:left;" colspan="3" |Total| style="text-align:right;" || style="text-align:right;" |103| style="text-align:right;" |103| style="text-align:right;" |107| style="text-align:right;" |8,380,551| style="text-align:right;" |4,423,898| style="text-align:right;" |100%| style="text-align:right;" |-|}

• Two independent candidates are running for the unregistered Communist League, while two others are perennial candidates of the Communist Party of Canada (Marxist–Leninist).
• Eileen Butson, party president, acted as the CoR's spokesperson as the party decided not to have a party leader.

Synopsis of results

See main article: Results by riding of the Ontario general election, 2007.

Results by riding - 2007 Ontario general election^[9]

Riding	Winning party						Turnout [10]	Votes[11]
	Party		Votes	Share	Margin #	Margin %		Lib	PC	NDP	Green		Other	Total
Ajax—Pickering		Lib	19,857	49.07%	5,959	14.73%	49.34%	19,857	13,898	3,275	3,067	-	368	40,465
Algoma—Manitoulin		Lib	11,361	42.56%	1,498	5.61%	54.49%	11,361	3,744	9,863	1,374	-	354	26,696
Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale		Lib	20,445	41.16%	3,353	6.75%	58.12%	20,445	17,092	6,814	4,112	222	985	49,670
Barrie		Lib	19,548	42.20%	1,381	2.98%	51.95%	19,548	18,167	3,700	4,385	179	341	46,320
Beaches—East York		NDP	17,522	44.32%	7,307	18.48%	54.37%	10,215	6,166	17,522	4,785	-	851	39,539
Bramalea—Gore—Malton		Lib	19,106	47.00%	7,172	17.64%	43.65%	19,106	11,934	5,016	4,120	-	471	40,647
Brampton—Springdale		Lib	17,673	50.66%	6,965	19.97%	43.45%	17,673	10,708	3,800	2,292	-	410	34,883
Brampton West		Lib	20,746	46.19%	5,626	12.53%	43.92%	20,746	15,120	4,901	3,471	185	488	44,911
Brant		Lib	23,485	49.16%	9,698	20.30%	52.69%	23,485	13,787	6,536	3,272	289	403	47,772
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound		PC	21,156	46.61%	6,117	13.48%	59.96%	6,774	21,156	1,721	15,039	-	695	45,385
Burlington		PC	21,578	41.34%	1,854	3.55%	58.91%	19,724	21,578	5,728	4,779	-	391	52,200
Cambridge		PC	17,942	41.70%	3,238	7.52%	49.69%	14,704	17,942	5,896	3,842	-	646	43,030
Carleton—Mississippi Mills		PC	25,126	47.83%	8,350	15.89%	55.30%	16,776	25,126	4,002	5,517	-	1,112	52,533
Chatham-Kent—Essex		Lib	18,782	51.98%	8,415	23.29%	48.81%	18,782	10,367	4,601	2,054	-	326	36,130
Davenport		Lib	12,467	41.82%	1,587	5.32%	45.84%	12,467	2,805	10,880	3,047	114	500	29,813
Don Valley East		Lib	19,667	55.63%	10,789	30.52%	51.30%	19,667	8,878	3,759	2,287	467	297	35,355
Don Valley West		Lib	23,080	50.44%	4,924	10.76%	59.20%	23,080	18,156	2,138	2,202	-	183	45,759
Dufferin—Caledon		PC	16,522	41.85%	3,884	9.84%	52.50%	12,638	16,522	3,893	6,430	-	-	39,483
Durham		PC	21,515	46.96%	6,785	14.81%	54.34%	14,730	21,515	5,521	4,053	-	-	45,819
Eglinton—Lawrence		Lib	17,402	43.23%	2,145	5.33%	55.62%	17,402	15,257	4,039	2,871	90	594	40,253
Elgin—Middlesex—London		Lib	20,085	49.10%	7,625	18.64%	53.09%	20,085	12,460	4,643	3,363	-	353	40,904
Essex		Lib	19,970	48.02%	9,570	23.01%	48.69%	19,970	10,400	8,638	2,220	-	358	41,586
Etobicoke Centre		Lib	22,939	50.07%	7,272	15.87%	59.40%	22,939	15,667	3,847	3,357	-	-	45,810
Etobicoke—Lakeshore		Lib	20,218	45.99%	6,736	15.32%	53.62%	20,218	13,482	5,837	3,467	480	478	43,962
Etobicoke North		Lib	15,147	54.85%	9,346	33.84%	45.19%	15,147	5,801	4,101	1,312	-	1,255	27,616
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell		Lib	24,345	60.51%	13,418	33.35%	52.80%	24,345	10,927	2,281	2,344	-	337	40,234
Guelph		Lib	20,346	40.92%	8,166	16.42%	57.03%	20,346	12,180	6,880	9,750	-	571	49,727
Haldimand—Norfolk		PC	26,135	60.92%	16,599	38.69%	56.25%	9,536	26,135	4,546	2,230	-	457	42,904
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock		PC	24,273	49.99%	9,946	20.49%	59.22%	14,327	24,273	5,785	3,475	-	692	48,552
Halton		PC	22,677	41.84%	176	0.32%	51.53%	22,501	22,677	4,160	4,376	-	487	54,201
Hamilton Centre		NDP	17,176	44.72%	6,080	15.83%	48.63%	11,096	5,673	17,176	3,610	-	852	38,407
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek		NDP	16,272	37.65%	1,210	2.80%	51.36%	15,062	9,310	16,272	2,122	-	452	43,218
Hamilton Mountain		Lib	17,387	37.24%	1,734	3.71%	53.33%	17,387	10,982	15,653	2,172	-	493	46,687
Huron—Bruce		Lib	20,469	45.95%	6,863	15.41%	59.80%	20,469	13,606	5,932	2,911	595	1,035	44,548
Kenora—Rainy River		NDP	14,281	60.62%	8,529	36.20%	46.16%	5,752	2,757	14,281	769	-	-	23,559
Kingston and the Islands		Lib	23,277	47.23%	12,276	24.91%	53.96%	23,277	11,001	10,129	4,321	-	556	49,284
Kitchener Centre		Lib	17,484	45.90%	7,767	20.39%	49.58%	17,484	9,717	6,707	3,162	425	599	38,094
Kitchener—Conestoga		Lib	16,315	41.82%	1,865	4.78%	49.25%	16,315	14,450	4,545	2,805	-	901	39,016
Kitchener—Waterloo		PC	20,748	40.84%	4,900	9.65%	53.63%	15,848	20,748	8,902	4,707	-	598	50,803
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex		Lib	18,228	43.27%	2,933	6.96%	55.18%	18,228	15,295	4,520	3,329	-	758	42,130
Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington		PC	18,213	40.58%	820	1.83%	52.08%	17,393	18,213	5,623	3,186	-	462	44,877
Leeds—Grenville		PC	22,755	56.24%	11,153	27.56%	55.11%	11,602	22,755	2,821	2,907	-	377	40,462
London—Fanshawe		Lib	13,742	38.68%	3,982	11.21%	48.21%	13,742	9,760	9,350	2,548	129	-	35,529
London North Centre		Lib	21,669	47.17%	10,772	23.45%	50.00%	21,669	10,897	7,649	5,720	-	-	45,935
London West		Lib	25,967	52.42%	13,956	28.18%	57.83%	25,967	12,011	5,562	5,184	201	607	49,532
Markham—Unionville		Lib	21,149	59.47%	11,575	32.55%	40.51%	21,149	9,574	2,597	1,910	-	335	35,565
Mississauga—Brampton South		Lib	19,738	53.78%	10,405	28.35%	42.46%	19,738	9,333	3,785	3,846	-	0	36,702
Mississauga East—Cooksville		Lib	22,249	58.93%	13,534	35.85%	47.48%	22,249	8,715	3,192	2,361	-	1,235	37,752
Mississauga—Erindale		Lib	21,551	47.85%	6,638	14.74%	47.08%	21,551	14,913	5,056	3,521	-	-	45,041
Mississauga South		Lib	19,195	46.68%	5,008	12.18%	54.08%	19,195	14,187	3,745	3,629	-	365	41,121
Mississauga—Streetsville		Lib	20,264	52.55%	9,109	23.62%	45.63%	20,264	11,155	3,944	2,925	-	274	38,562
Nepean—Carleton		PC	27,070	50.28%	9,339	17.35%	54.61%	17,731	27,070	4,000	4,500	-	533	53,834
Newmarket—Aurora		PC	19,460	42.72%	1,355	2.97%	55.21%	18,105	19,460	3,290	4,182	-	518	45,555
Niagara Falls		Lib	22,210	47.53%	7,670	16.41%	51.08%	22,210	14,540	4,605	5,373	-	-	46,728
Niagara West—Glanbrook		PC	24,311	51.06%	10,021	21.05%	58.57%	14,290	24,311	5,809	3,206	-	-	47,616
Nickel Belt		NDP	15,126	46.59%	2,762	8.51%	53.56%	12,364	3,263	15,126	1,374	-	341	32,468
Nipissing		Lib	13,781	42.11%	458	1.40%	56.79%	13,781	13,323	4,136	1,248	-	238	32,726
Northumberland—Quinte West		Lib	22,287	45.37%	6,957	14.16%	54.92%	22,287	15,330	6,492	5,012	-	-	49,121
Oak Ridges—Markham		Lib	28,564	48.22%	7,197	12.15%	47.77%	28,564	21,367	4,698	3,815	342	455	59,241
Oakville		Lib	23,761	49.81%	7,102	14.89%	58.26%	23,761	16,659	3,091	3,916	-	279	47,706
Oshawa		PC	15,977	39.02%	2,495	6.09%	48.94%	8,762	15,977	13,482	2,474	-	253	40,948
Ottawa Centre		Lib	18,255	34.91%	2,094	4.00%	58.25%	18,255	10,416	16,161	6,458	283	720	52,293
Ottawa—Orléans		Lib	25,649	52.86%	8,954	18.45%	57.86%	25,649	16,695	3,088	2,214	-	875	48,521
Ottawa South		Lib	24,015	50.13%	9,809	20.48%	56.60%	24,015	14,206	4,467	3,902	-	1,311	47,901
Ottawa—Vanier		Lib	20,954	50.96%	11,785	28.66%	51.49%	20,954	9,169	6,049	4,293	255	396	41,116
Ottawa West—Nepean		Lib	23,842	50.64%	8,871	18.84%	57.51%	23,842	14,971	4,564	2,903	207	592	47,079
Oxford		PC	18,445	47.27%	6,990	17.91%	53.72%	11,455	18,445	4,421	3,441	659	601	39,022
Parkdale—High Park		NDP	18,194	44.71%	6,294	15.47%	57.43%	11,900	6,024	18,194	3,938	-	638	40,694
Parry Sound—Muskoka		PC	17,348	47.22%	7,529	20.49%	56.76%	9,819	17,348	5,015	4,557	-	-	36,739
Perth—Wellington		Lib	18,096	46.65%	5,758	14.84%	54.62%	18,096	12,338	3,912	3,051	217	1,175	38,789
Peterborough		Lib	24,466	47.72%	11,290	22.02%	57.47%	24,466	13,176	8,523	4,473	-	634	51,272
Pickering—Scarborough East		Lib	19,762	48.63%	6,878	16.92%	54.01%	19,762	12,884	4,563	2,572	275	585	40,641
Prince Edward—Hastings		Lib	20,963	46.36%	6,123	13.54%	54.16%	20,963	14,840	6,287	2,663	-	463	45,216
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke		PC	24,975	62.34%	15,070	37.62%	57.55%	9,905	24,975	3,038	1,777	-	368	40,063
Richmond Hill		Lib	19,456	47.83%	5,329	13.10%	47.23%	19,456	14,127	3,565	3,210	-	318	40,676
St. Catharines		Lib	21,029	47.23%	8,165	18.34%	53.83%	21,029	12,864	7,069	3,152	-	406	44,520
St. Paul's		Lib	21,280	47.43%	9,370	20.88%	55.99%	21,280	11,910	7,061	3,744	328	545	44,868
Sarnia—Lambton		PC	16,145	38.16%	3,702	8.75%	55.20%	12,443	16,145	11,349	2,376	-	-	42,313
Sault Ste. Marie		Lib	19,316	60.13%	10,841	33.75%	55.56%	19,316	2,349	8,475	1,377	-	605	32,122
Scarborough—Agincourt		Lib	19,541	58.08%	11,010	32.72%	46.01%	19,541	8,531	3,531	1,511	-	532	33,646
Scarborough Centre		Lib	17,775	53.66%	9,455	28.55%	48.06%	17,775	8,320	4,401	1,827	-	800	33,123
Scarborough—Guildwood		Lib	14,430	42.52%	4,927	14.52%	51.28%	14,430	9,503	7,441	1,811	-	751	33,936
Scarborough—Rouge River		Lib	22,307	65.06%	17,347	50.59%	41.82%	22,307	4,960	4,691	1,276	-	1,055	34,289
Scarborough Southwest		Lib	15,114	46.15%	6,755	20.63%	49.70%	15,114	8,359	5,930	2,649	-	695	32,747
Simcoe—Grey		PC	24,270	50.65%	11,823	24.67%	54.86%	12,447	24,270	4,417	5,428	273	1,085	47,920
Simcoe North		PC	22,986	49.82%	8,892	19.27%	54.06%	14,094	22,986	4,240	4,709	-	112	46,141
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry		Lib	18,660	48.86%	3,866	10.12%	51.81%	18,660	14,794	2,813	1,680	-	247	38,194
Sudbury		Lib	19,307	58.77%	10,393	31.64%	51.11%	19,307	2,605	8,914	1,608	124	293	32,851
Thornhill		PC	22,244	45.92%	1,725	3.56%	52.17%	20,519	22,244	2,657	2,507	158	356	48,441
Thunder Bay—Atikokan		Lib	10,928	37.69%	50	0.17%	52.36%	10,928	5,918	10,878	1,270	-	-	28,994
Thunder Bay—Superior North		Lib	13,373	46.78%	2,435	8.52%	53.91%	13,373	2,688	10,938	1,586	-	-	28,585
Timiskaming—Cochrane		Lib	11,588	42.90%	634	2.35%	54.80%	11,588	3,659	10,954	811	-	-	27,012
Timmins—James Bay		NDP	13,176	51.60%	3,447	13.50%	53.76%	9,729	2,191	13,176	437	-	-	25,533
Toronto Centre		Lib	21,522	47.85%	12,438	27.65%	49.90%	21,522	9,084	8,464	4,412	358	1,141	44,981
Toronto—Danforth		NDP	17,975	45.85%	6,527	16.65%	53.18%	11,448	4,423	17,975	4,372	-	986	39,204
Trinity—Spadina		NDP	18,508	41.15%	4,328	9.62%	49.63%	14,180	6,235	18,508	5,156	504	390	44,973
Vaughan		Lib	28,964	61.90%	20,205	43.18%	46.31%	28,964	8,759	5,470	2,975	623	-	46,791
Welland		NDP	24,910	53.94%	14,330	31.03%	55.29%	10,580	8,722	24,910	1,973	-	-	46,185
Wellington—Halton Hills		PC	21,533	49.16%	8,221	18.77%	57.49%	13,312	21,533	3,914	4,489	-	555	43,803
Whitby—Oshawa		PC	22,694	44.00%	4,134	8.02%	53.54%	18,560	22,694	5,734	3,745	-	839	51,572
Willowdale		Lib	21,166	47.73%	5,608	12.65%	49.51%	21,166	15,558	3,699	2,960	119	847	44,349
Windsor—Tecumseh		Lib	17,894	49.34%	9,058	24.98%	44.04%	17,894	6,106	8,836	2,696	-	735	36,267
Windsor West		Lib	16,821	50.19%	8,217	24.52%	41.02%	16,821	5,652	8,604	1,974	-	463	33,514
York Centre		Lib	16,646	48.73%	5,618	16.45%	49.07%	16,646	11,028	3,713	2,207	-	568	34,162
York—Simcoe		PC	19,173	46.23%	6,388	15.40%	49.73%	12,785	19,173	4,205	4,664	-	645	41,472
York South—Weston		Lib	13,846	42.94%	452	1.40%	46.34%	13,846	3,173	13,394	1,226	-	603	32,242
York West		Lib	13,246	54.74%	6,482	26.79%	44.44%	13,246	2,484	6,764	1,199	225	282	24,200

= new riding

= merged riding

= open seat

= turnout is above provincial average

= incumbent re-elected

= incumbent changed allegiance

= other incumbents renominated

Maps

Principal races

Party candidates in 2nd place

Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place				Total
		align="center"	Lib	align="center"	PC		align="center"	NDP	align="center"	Grn
-	58	13		71
24	-	1	1	26
10		-		10
Total		34	58	14	1	107

Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results

Parties		Seats
		82
		23
		1
		1
Total		107

Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party

Parties	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
	71	34	2			107
	26	58	22	1		107
	10	14	65	18		107
		1	18	88		107
					63	63
					16	16
					8	8
					2	2
					1

Source !!colspan="6"

Party
align="center"	Lib	align="center"	PC	align="center"	NDP	Total
Incumbents returned	60	22	8	90
Open seats held	3	1	1	5
Ouster of incumbent changing allegiance	1			1
New seats gained	5	1		6
Incumbents defeated	2	2		4
Open seats gained			1	1
Total	71	26	10	107

Incumbent MPPs who did not run for re-election

Electoral district	Incumbent at dissolution		Subsequent nominee	New MPP
Hamilton Mountain			Marie Bountrogianni	Sophia Aggelonitis			Sophia Aggelonitis
Scarborough East			Mary Anne Chambers	riding dissolved
Hamilton West			Judy Marsales	riding dissolved
Nickel Belt			Shelley Martel	France Gélinas			France Gélinas
Stoney Creek			Jennifer Mossop	Riding dissolved
Prince Edward—Hastings			Ernie Parsons	Leona Dombrowsky			Leona Dombrowsky
Ottawa Centre			Richard Patten	Yasir Naqvi			Yasir Naqvi

Opinion polls

Since the 2003 general election, several polls were conducted to determine the ongoing preference of voters. They showed a decline in Liberal support following the 2004 Ontario budget. Overall, support for the governing Liberals declined slightly since the 2003 election, the NDP gained some ground since the 2003 election, and the PCs' poll numbers did not change significantly since 2003. Support for the Green Party increased significantly, a shift which paralleled the increase in support for the party's federal counterpart. During the pre-election period, the Ontario Greens did not appear as an option in some of the polls.

Polls indicate results for decided voters. More information can be found in the footnotes to each poll, including undecided results, if provided by the pollster. A dash indicates the absence of a prompt for that party.

Polling firm	Date released	Date poll conducted	Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democrats	Green
Harris-Decima	October 9, 2007[12]	October 6 – 7, 2007	42	31	17	10
SES Research	October 9, 2007[13]	October 6 – 7, 2007	43	31	18	9
Environics	October 9, 2007[14]	September 28 – October 2, 2007	46	31	20	3
Strategic Counsel	October 8, 2007[15]	October 6 – 7, 2007	42	27	19	11
Ipsos-Reid	October 6, 2007[16]	October 2 – 4, 2007	43	32	18	6
Angus Reid Strategies	October 5, 2007[17]	October 4 – 5, 2007	40	34	19	7
Decima Research	October 2, 2007[18]	September 27 – October 1, 2007	43	32	14	10
SES Research	October 2, 2007[19]	September 28 – 30, 2007	44	34	15	7
Ipsos-Reid	September 29, 2007[20]	September 25 – 27, 2007	43	33	17	6
Environics	September 28, 2007[21]	September 21 – 25, 2007	39	34	20	7
Decima Research	September 26, 2007[22]	September 24 – 25, 2007	41	32	16	10
Angus Reid Strategies	September 25, 2007[23]	September 24 – 25, 2007	40	35	16	8
SES Research	September 25, 2007[24]	September 21 – 23, 2007	41	33	18	8
Ipsos-Reid	September 20, 2007[25]	September 11 – 18, 2007	40	37	16	6
Decima Research	September 19, 2007[26]	September 13 – 17, 2007	41	32	14	12
Strategic Counsel	September 18, 2007[27]	September 13 – 16, 2007	40	34	16	10
Ipsos-Reid	September 15, 2007[28]	September 4 – 13, 2007	40	37	16	6
Environics	September 13, 2007[29]

Notes and References

1. Web site: Boring campaign behind poor voter turnout: analysts. CTV News. Toronto. October 11, 2007. 2014-05-28. 2014-05-29. https://web.archive.org/web/20140529051455/http://toronto.ctvnews.ca/boring-campaign-behind-poor-voter-turnout-analysts-1.259618. live.
2. News: Howlett . Karen . Ontario government changes election date . Online update . The Globe and Mail Newspaper . 2007-02-07 . 2014-05-28 . Toronto . 2014-06-05 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140605184812/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario-government-changes-election-date/article1070534/ . live .
3. Web site: Electoral System Referendum Act, 2007, S.O. 2007, c. 1 - Bill 155 . 24 July 2014 .
4. Web site: Caroline. Alphonso. Ontario campaign starts with verbal attacks. The Globe and Mail. September 10, 2007. 2014-05-28. 2014-05-29. https://web.archive.org/web/20140529052239/http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070910.wleaders10/front/Front/Front/. dead.
5. Web site: Progressive Conservatives to soften position on faith-based schools: report . 2007-10-11 . 2007-10-12 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071012094303/http://www.cbc.ca/cp/national/071001/n100121A.html . live .
6. News: Progressive Conservatives to soften position on faith-based schools: report. Christ Selley. The National Post. 21 November 2015.
7. Web site: How Ontario got a one-issue campaign. Robin V. Sears. 1 November 2007. 12 March 2018. 12 March 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180312205301/http://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/ontario-2007-dalton-mcguinty/how-ontario-got-a-one-issue-campaign/. live.
8. Web site: Electoral Districts . Elections Ontario Website . Elections Ontario, Government of Ontario . 2005 . 2007-08-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070927175109/http://www.electionsontario.on.ca/en-CA/Tools/ElectoralDistricts/ElectoralDistricts.htm . 2007-09-27 . dead.
9. Web site: 2007 Ontario General Election. . elections.on.ca. Elections Ontario. June 21, 2023.
10. including spoilt ballots
11. minor political parties receiving less than 1% of the popular vote are aggregated under "Other"; independent candidates are aggregated separately
12. Liberals ride lead in polls while PC school funding flip fails to boost support. SES Research/Sun Media. October 9, 2007. 2007-10-09. 2007-10-25. https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025847/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F07-T261.pdf. live. The poll results, based on a one-week sample of 709 Ontarians, have a margin of error of 3.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
13. Liberal Victory Imminent . . October 9, 2007 . 2007-10-09 . 2007-10-25 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025847/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F07-T261.pdf . live . Between October 4 and 6, 2006, random telephone survey with 501 Ontarians 18 years of age or older. The aggregate survey results are plus or minus 4.4%, 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples.
14. Ontario Liberals Headed for Majority Government . Environics . October 9, 2007 . 2007-10-09 . 2007-10-12 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071012171353/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=649 . live . These results are taken from an Environics survey of 448 Ontarians eligible to vote, conducted between September 28 and October 2, 2007. The poll was conducted independently. On a provincial basis, these results are accurate to within +/- 4.7 percentage points, in 95 out of 100 samples. Green column includes other parties.
15. Poll says Ontario Liberals have 15-point lead . . October 8, 2007 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071017162610/http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071008/ontario_poll_071008/20071008?hub=TopStories . live . October 17, 2007 . 2007-10-08. Interviews were conducted between Oct. 6 and Oct. 7, 2007. Results are based on tracking among a proportionate sample of Ontarians 18 years of age or older. A total of 850 Ontarians were surveyed. The Ontario margin of error is plus or minus 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
16. Tory's Gambit Fails: Grits Headed For Majority Government . . October 6, 2007 . 2007-10-06 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071010002723/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3671 . 2007-10-10 . dead. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from October 2–4, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.

    Ipsos Reid’s companion poll was conducted on October 4–6, when a sample of 4241 adult was surveyed online via Ipsos’ I-Say Panel. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 1.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.

    There were 4% undecided.

17. News: Ontario Liberals Hold Six-Point Advantage: Tory's Leadership Edge Evaporates; Now Tied with McGuinty . Ontario Politics . . 2007-10-05 . 2007-10-05 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025844/http://angusreidstrategies.com/uploads/pages/pdfs/2007.10.05%20Ontario%20Press%20Release.pdf . 2007-10-25 . dead. From October 4 to 5, 2007, Angus Reid Strategies conducted an online survey among a randomly selected, representative sample of 939 adults in Ontario. The margin of error for the total sample is +/- 3.2%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Ontario. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. Voter intent: Notably, 10 per cent of the Ontario electorate remains undecided, 10 per cent say they will not vote, and 30 per cent (-9) say they could change their mind between now and Election Day.
18. News: Liberal lead firming . . October 2, 2007 . 2007-10-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025844/http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/071003E.pdf . October 25, 2007 . dead . Results of the survey of 701 residents, with its margin of error of 3.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
19. Grits Move Into Majority Territory . . October 2, 2007 . 2007-10-02 . 2007-10-25 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025844/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F07-T256.pdf . live . The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 39.6%; Cons 30.6%; NDP 13.5%; Greens 6.3%; Undecided 10%. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 500 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 450, undecided voters were 50, or 10%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 44; Cons 34; NDP 15; Greens 7. The margin of error increases to ± 4.7%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
20. Post Debate Tory Tumble Gives McGuinty Liberals Ten Point Lead . . September 29, 2007 . 2007-09-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071010002216/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3656 . October 10, 2007 . dead . mdy-all. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from Sep 25 to September 27, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.
21. Opposition grows to funding faith-based schools, but issue has little impact on vote intention . Environics . September 28, 2007 . 2007-09-28 . 2007-10-11 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071011215905/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=647 . live . Between September 21st and September 25th, 2007, Environics conducted a random telephone survey of 504 Ontarians 18 years and older. The aggregate survey results are accurate ±4.4%, 19 times out of 20.
22. News: Voting intentions stuck . Ontario Politics . . 2007-09-26 . 2007-09-28 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025848/http://www.decima.com/en/pdf/news_releases/070926E.pdf . 2007-10-25 . dead . it surveyed 706 respondents and has a margin of error of ± 3.7 per cent, 19 times out of 20 - are virtually identical to the previous week's findings.
23. News: McGuinty's Grits Lead by Five Points in Ontario . Ontario Politics . . 2007-09-25 . 2007-09-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025848/http://www.angus-reid.com/uppdf/OntarioII.pdf . 2007-10-25 . dead. Online interviews with 800 Ontario adults, conducted on Sept. 24 and Sept. 25, 2007. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent. Notably, 15 per cent ofthe Ontario electorate remains undecided and 39 per cent (-11) say they could change their mind between now and Election Day.
24. News: Nanos . Nikita . Grits Lead by Eight Points . Ontario Politics . . 2007-09-25 . 2007-09-25 . 2007-09-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070926025837/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-S07-T251.pdf . live . The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 35; Cons 27; NDP 15; Greens 7; Undecided 14. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 500 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 433, undecided voters were 67, or 14%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 41; Cons 33; NDP 18; Greens 8. The margin of error increases to ± 4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
25. Will Hot Debate Thaw Frozen Voters? . . September 20, 2007 . 2007-09-20 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20161221093056/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=3649 . December 21, 2016. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from September 11 to September 18, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomlyselected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of thissize, the results are considered accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of whatthey would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin oferror will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These datawere weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actualOntarian population according to Census data.
26. News: Liberals maintain lead over Tories in latest poll . . September 19, 2007 . 2007-09-19 . Toronto . Colin . Perkel . 2016-12-21 . https://web.archive.org/web/20161221163517/https://www.thestar.com/news/2007/09/19/liberals_maintain_lead_over_tories_in_latest_poll.html . live. Results of the survey of 704 residents, with its margin of error of 3.7 percentage points 19 times out of 20, is substantially similar to a poll done for The Canadian Press in the days just before the campaign formally got underway Sept. 10
27. News: Ontario voters pan faith-based education: poll . CTV News/The Globe and Mail . September 18, 2007 . 2014-05-28 . Toronto . Karen . Howlett . 2014-05-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140529084533/http://v1.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070918.wontpoll18/business . dead . The survey of 850 Ontarians was conducted from Sept. 13 to Sept. 16, and is considered accurate to within 3.4 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
28. Ontario vote essentially stagnant after 1st week . . September 15, 2007 . 2007-09-16 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071010001905/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3640 . 2007-10-10 . dead. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from Sep 4 to September 13, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data.
29. News: Liberals Lead by Two Points in Ontario . Polls & Research . . 2007-09-14 . 2007-09-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071012183329/http://angus-reid.com/polls/view/28232/liberals_lead_by_two_points_in_ontario . 2007-10-12 . dead. Source: Angus Reid Strategies. Methodology: Online interviews with 725 Ontario adults, conducted on Sept. 7 and Sept. 8, 2007. Margin of error is 3.6 per cent. PDF file is available here Web site: Archived copy . 2007-09-14 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20070926025831/http://www.angus-reid.com/uppdf/ONT_Sept.pdf . 2007-09-26 .
30. News: Perkel . Colin . Liberals lead Conservatives in poll . . 2007-09-12 . 2007-09-12 . 2007-10-11 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071011073707/http://www.thestar.com/OntarioElection/article/255595 . live . The poll's margin of error is 3.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. But the pollsters also combined the survey with polling conducted during the previous two weeks, creating a rolling average with an error margin of about 3.1 percentage points.
31. News: Liberal lead over Tories slipping in Ontario: poll . . 2007-09-10 . https://archive.today/20130118182356/http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=99ba49ca-f032-494c-b8fb-5f74bccef902&k=54740&p=2 . dead . 2013-01-18 . 2007-09-10. The Ipsos Reid telephone poll was conducted with a random sample of 801 respondents between Aug. 30 and Sept. 8. The results are considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
32. News: Nanos . Nikita . Ontario grits lead by six points . Ontario Politics . . 2007-08-30 . 2007-08-30 . 2007-09-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070926025835/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-S07-T245.pdf . live . The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 34; Cons 28; NDP 16; Greens 7; Undecided 15. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 501 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 425, undecided voters were 76, or 15%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 40; Cons 34; NDP 19; Greens 8. The margin of error increases to ± 4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
33. News: As the Ontario Election Draws Near, The GTA moves Red while the Rest of Ontario moves Blue . CanWest Polls . . 2007-09-10 . 2007-08-21 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071010001831/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3616 . 2007-10-10 . dead. These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted exclusively for CanWest News Service and Global Television from Aug 14 to Aug 23, 2007. For the survey, a representative randomly selected sample of 760 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were weighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Ontarian population according to Census data
34. News: As the Ontario Election Draws Near, The GTA moves Red while the Rest of Ontario moves Blue . CanWest Polls . . 2007-08-21 . 2007-08-21 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070927204729/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3608 . 2007-09-27 . dead. For the survey, a representative randomly selectedsample of 800 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, theresults are considered accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what theywould have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled. The margin of errorwill be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data wereweighted to ensure that the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actualOntarian population according to Census data.
35. News: Howlett . Karen . McGuinty support slips to minority status, poll finds . Ontario Politics . . 2007-08-20 . 2007-08-20 . Toronto . 2008-09-06 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080906201244/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/LAC.20070820.ONTARIO20/TPStory/TPNational/Ontario/ . live . The poll of 750 Ontarians is considered accurate to within 3.6 percentage points, 95 per cent of the time.
36. News: Race Tightens as Summer Heats Up . Ipsos-Reid/CanWest Polls . July 3, 2007 . https://wayback.archive-it.org/all/20070710093511/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/act_hit_cntr.cfm?id=3555&Region=us&PDF_name=mr070703-1.pdf . dead . 2007-07-10 . 2007-07-08. For the survey, a representative randomly selectedsample of 801 adults living in Ontario was interviewed by telephone. With a sample of this size, theresults are considered accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what theywould have been had the entire adult population living in Ontario been polled.
37. News: Kalinoswski . Tess . A $17,5B transit promise . . June 16, 2007 . 2007-06-18 . 2015-02-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150203042040/http://www.thestar.com/news/ontario/2007/06/16/a_175b_transit_promise.html . live . 1001 people were canvassed with 15% undecided. Poll is accurate to within 3.1%, 19 times out of 20.
38. Ontario Liberals and PCs in Dead Heat . . June 3, 2007 . 2007-06-10 . 2007-06-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070614024843/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-S07-T236.pdf . live . The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 30; Cons 30; NDP 16; Greens 9; Undecided 15. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 500 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 424, undecided voters were 76, or 15%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 40; Cons 34; NDP 19; Greens 8. The margin of error increases to ± 4.9%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
39. Provincial Party Support March 2007 . Environics . May 18, 2007 . 2007-05-23 . 2007-05-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070529095521/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=635 . live .
40. Ontario Politics With Just Over 7 Months To "E" Day Liberals(38%) Lead Tories (33%), NDP (17%) And Green (9%) . . February 24, 2007 . 2007-05-23 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070927204625/http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/pressrelease.cfm?id=3379 . September 27, 2007 . dead . mdy-all.
41. Provincial Party Support December 2006 . Environics . January 5, 2007 . 2007-06-10 . 2007-06-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070629194547/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=627 . live . The sample of 2045 adult residents of Canada, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
42. Ontario Political Landscape . . December 17, 2006 . 2007-06-10 . 2007-06-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070614024842/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F06-T207.pdf . live . The aggregate survey results, or results including the undecided voters were: Libs 36; Cons 30; NDP 14; Greens 6; Undecided 14. The aggregate survey is accurate ± 4.4% 19 times out of 20. Margins of accuracy are wider for subgroup samples. The data was weighted for gender and age to match the Canadian census results for Ontario. Result should be considered representative of the Ontario population. 500 Ontarians were surveyed. Number of Committed voters was 429, undecided voters were 71, or 14%. With just the committed voters the results are: Libs 40; Cons 34; NDP 19; Greens 8. The margin of error increases to ± 4.7%, 19 times out of 20. The results shown in the table are for the committed voters only.
43. Ontario Liberals establish solid lead . Environics . October 26, 2006 . 2007-06-10 . 2007-09-27 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070927200151/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=613 . live . The sample of 579 adult eligible voters in Ontario, is estimated to be accurate within +/- 4.1% points, 95 times out of 100 samples. 2% would vote for other parties, while 12% had no preference.
44. Ontario Liberals With Clear Lead . . October 18, 2006 . 2007-06-10 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070601062216/http://www.ekos.com/media/default.asp . 2007-06-01 . dead. 584 Ontarians were polled. Decided voters were 492. 1.8 percent of respondents would vote for "Other", which includes the Green Party. Sample size produces a statistical margin of error of +/-4.1%, 19 times out of 20.
45. Ontario Liberals Lead by Seven Points . . October 7, 2006 . 2007-06-10 . 2007-06-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070614024841/http://www.sesresearch.com/library/polls/POLONT-F06-T7.pdf . live . 500 voting age Ontarians were polled. Sample is accurate to within plus or minus 4.4% 19 times out of 20. 11% undecided.
46. Provincial Party Support results June 2006 . Environics . September 9, 2006 . 2007-06-11 . 2007-01-05 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070105224813/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=610 . live . The sample of 2036 adult residents of Canada, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. 1% preferred other parties, while 8% had no party preference.
47. Liberal Minister Kathleen Wynne Leading by Wide Margin: PC Schooling Promise Stirs Unease about Integrating Immigrants . . October 1, 2007 . 2007-10-06 . 2007-10-25 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071025025844/http://www.compas.ca/data/071001-DonValleyWestToryVsWynne-EP.pdf . live . An Ottawa Citizen/COMPAS poll in John Tory’s riding of Don Valley Westwas carried out carefully over a five-day period, September 25–29, 2007, tominimize the risk of sampling error. It shows the Liberal incumbent with a 15%lead over the PC leader, as shown in table 1. By convention, the poll of 333voters is deemed accurate to within approximately 5.6 percentage points 19times out of 20.
48. http://www.gpo.ca/sites/greenparty.on.ca/files/Bruce%20Grey%20Owen%20Sound%20Riding%20Report.doc{{dead link|date=March 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}
49. https://web.archive.org/web/20071012200215/http://thesudburystar.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?e=724008 The Sudbury Star - Ontario, CA
50. Provincial Tories Tied with McGuinty Liberals – NDP also Gains Ground . Environics . August 9, 2004 . 2007-05-23 . 2007-09-27 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070927200049/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=560 . live .
51. Web site: March 30 By-elections - Unofficial Results . . March 30, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20060420053519/http://www.electionsontario.on.ca/en/march_30_unofficial_results_en.shtml . 2006-04-20 . dead.
52. News: Gerard Kennedy resigns from Ontario legislature . . May 18, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071012082720/http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060518/gerard_kennedy_060518/20060518?hub=TopStories . dead . October 12, 2007 . 2007-05-23.
53. Web site: Official results Parkdale–High Park by-election . 2006 By-elections . . September 14, 2006 . 2007-05-23 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070627015049/http://www.electionsontario.on.ca/results/2006ByElections/index_PHP.jsp?flag=E&layout=G . June 27, 2007 . dead .
54. News: Urquhart . Ian . Passing ships firing cannonballs at McGuinty . Opinions . A13 . . 2006-09-27 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20071001030809/https://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/1136206611.html?dids=1136206611:1136206611&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&date=Sep+27%2C+2006&author=IAN+URQUHART&pub=Daily+Mercury&edition=&startpage=A.13&desc=Passing+ships+firing+cannonballs+at+McGuinty . October 1, 2007 . 2007-05-23 .
55. News: Benzie . Robert . Tony Wong hopes to return to region . News . Markham Economist & Sun . 2006-09-26 . 2007-05-23 . 2007-10-01 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071001011136/http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/1142001381.html?dids=1142001381%3A1142001381&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS%3AFT&date=Sep+26%2C+2006&author=&pub=Markham+Economist+&+Sun&edition=&startpage=1&desc=MPP+quits+Queen%27s+Park . dead .
56. News: Cox . Christine . Jackson joins race for Burlington mayor . Local . dead . . https://web.archive.org/web/20071001045628/https://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/thestar/access/1137263171.html?dids=1137263171:1137263171&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&date=Sep+29%2C+2006&author=Christine+Cox&pub=The+Spectator&edition=&startpage=A.1&desc=Jackson+joins+race+for+Burlington+mayor . October 1, 2007 . 2006-09-29 . 2007-05-23 .
57. News: Benzie . Robert . Rob Ferguson . MPP Peterson, brother of ex-premier, to join Tories . News . . March 29, 2007 . 2007-05-23 . 2016-03-05 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160305202049/http://www.thestar.com/news/2007/03/29/mpp_peterson_brother_of_expremier_to_join_tories.html . live .
58. News: Campbell . Murray . Ontario acts to undo electoral apathy . The Globe and Mail . 2007-04-25 . 2014-05-28 . Toronto . 2014-06-05 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140605181743/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario-acts-to-undo-electoral-apathy/article684067/ . live .
59. News: Ferguson . Rob . MPP Shelley Martel won't run again . . 2007-05-18 . 2007-05-18 . 2016-03-07 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160307092344/http://www.thestar.com/news/2007/05/18/mpp_shelley_martel_wont_run_again.html . live .
60. Web site: An Act to amend the Election Act and the Election Finances Act and to make related amendments to other Acts . Second Session of the Ontario's 38th Legislature . Legislative Assembly of Ontario . 2007-06-04 . 2007-06-10 . 2007-06-14 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070614024841/http://www.ontla.on.ca/bills/bills-files/38_Parliament/Session2/b218ra.pdf . dead .
61. News: Howlett . Karen . McGuinty admits health tax will haunt him . The Globe and Mail . 2007-06-06 . 2014-05-28 . Toronto . 2014-06-05 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140605181748/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/mcguinty-admits-health-tax-will-haunt-him/article1086339/ . live .
62. News: Canadian Press . Slew of bills set to die as Queen's Park prepares to adjourn . The Globe and Mail . 2007-06-04 . 2007-06-10 . Toronto .
63. News: Benzie . Robert . Chambers won't run again . . 2007-07-11 . 2007-07-11 . 2007-09-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070929122525/http://www.thestar.com/article/234628 . live .
64. News: Canadian Press . Minister quits over grants . News . . July 26, 2007 . 2007-07-26 . Tobi . Cohen . Chinta . Puxley . 2014-09-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140903133821/http://www.thestar.com/news/2007/07/26/minister_quits_over_grants.html . live.
65. News: Campbell . Murray . Ontario election to be called Sept. 10 . The Globe and Mail . 2007-04-28 . 2014-05-28 . Toronto . 2014-06-05 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140605181758/http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/ontario-election-to-be-called-sept-10/article684469/ . live .
66. Web site: Candidates' election calendar . Elections Ontario . 2007-08-20 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070928071438/http://www.elections.on.ca/en-CA/CandidatesAndParties/Candidates/ImportantDatesforCandidates.htm . 2007-09-28 . dead .
67. Elections Ontario, Unofficial results [Burlington]. 260 of 260 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007 of the PCs hold Markham and Burlington, respectively.
    • March 29, 2007 - MPP Tim Peterson leaves the Liberal caucus and intends to run in this election as a Progressive Conservative.^[57]
    • April 25, 2007 - Democratic Renewal Minister Marie Bountrogianni introduces Bill 218, a bill to have longer voting hours – 9 a.m. to 9 p.m. – that identification be presented, advanced polls increased to 13 days from 6 days, and amendments regarding the referendum on election formulas for electing MPPS. The proposed legislation will also deal with suggestions for online voting and with complaints that the permanent voters' list is unreliable because it does not keep up with moves and deaths.^[58]
    • May 18, 2007 - New Democratic Party MPP Shelley Martel announced she will not seek re-election in her Nickel Belt riding. She is leaving politics for family reasons, and to pursue other career opportunities.^[59]
    • May 18, 2007 - A poll released by Environics showed the governing Liberals in second place for the first time since March 2006. According to the poll, the Progressive Conservatives lead with 39% followed by the Liberals with 33%, the NDP with 26% and the Greens with 2%. The poll was conducted between March 13 to April 3, 2007.
    • June 3, 2007 - A poll released by SES Research showed that the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives are in a dead-heat, with 29.8% of voters supporting each party. The NDP had 16% and the Green Party had 9%. 15% were undecided.
    • June 4, 2007 Today, Bill 218 is given third reading and royal assent. The bill amends the Elections Act with the following changes: making electors present proper identification; methods of updating the permanent register of electors and creating an electronic system to allow electors to change their personal information online; alternative forms of voting and electronic vote counting can now take place; scrutineers from outside an electoral district, now have the same privileges as a resident scrutineer; Ballots will now show party affiliation and any nickname or familiar name of that the candidate requests; the Chief Electoral Officer is allowed to advertise information regarding the October 2007 Referendum on electoral reform.^[60]
    • June 5, 2007 - Liberal Premier Dalton McGuinty prorogues the Legislature, stating that the passing of 14 bills during the session meant that the government's agenda had been fulfilled.^[61] The adjournment was three weeks earlier than expected and several private members' bills failed to receive third reading, including a bill to make it mandatory to fill out organ transplant cards.^[62] The legislature will not sit again until sometime after the October 10th election.
    • July 11, 2007 - Citing health concerns Mary Anne Chambers, the Children and Youth Services Minister and MPP for Scarborough East, will not be seeking re-election in the October 10 Ontario vote. She would have run in the Scarborough—Guildwood electoral district.^[63]
    • July 26, 2007 - Ontario Minister of Citizenship and Immigration Mike Colle resigned after an auditor general's report severely criticizes how $32 million in year-end grants to ethnic groups was administered.^[64]
    • September 10, 2007 - Official election call. Writ issued as per omnibus Budget Act, Bill 187, that includes the amendment to the Election Act to set writ issuance date. Premier McGuinty formally asked the Lt. Governor to dissolve the legislature. The campaign will be 29 days long, one day longer than the minimum.^[65]
    • September 18, 2007- Nomination papers due. A candidate or their designate must submit their nomination papers and deposit in person at the returning office by 2 p.m.^[66]
    • September 20, 2007- Televised leadership debate between McGuinty, Tory and Hampton.
    • September 22 – October 4, 2007 - Advance polling stations open for early voting from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m.
    • October 10, 2007 - Ontario general election from 9:00 a.m. until 9:00 p.m. EDT or in the most western part of the province 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. CDT as per Provision 20, Section 40(1) and 40(2) of the Election Act.

    Election results

    At 9:23 pm EDT, Citytv projected a Liberal majority government. CTV News made the same call at 9:30 pm EDT, followed by CBC News at 9:37 pm EDT, and Canadian Press at 9:52 pm EDT.

    Also at 10:30 pm EDT, CBC and CTV reported that Progressive Conservative leader John Tory had called Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty to concede the election. At 10:39 pm EDT, Tory was declared defeated by Canadian Press in the riding of Don Valley West.

    At 10:43 pm EDT, Liberal leader Dalton McGuinty took the stage to give his speech to the public, breaking tradition of the defeated party leaders going first.

    Each party lost at least one incumbent MPP — Liberals Mario Racco and Caroline Di Cocco, PCs Joe Tascona, Tim Peterson and John Tory and NDP Paul Ferreira were all defeated. However, each party's losses were offset by gains in other seats. The actual changes in party standings were accounted for entirely by the four new seats resulting from redistribution and the defeat of Peterson. Overall, however, most incumbent MPPs were returned in their ridings.

    McGuinty became the first Liberal leader in Ontario to win two successive majorities in the legislature since Mitchell Hepburn in the 1937 election.

    Breakdown by region

    Northern Ontario

    All eleven ridings in Northern Ontario were retained by their incumbent parties. The popular vote, however, shifted dramatically, with several Liberal incumbents holding on only very narrowly against NDP challengers. Most notably, Bill Mauro retained Thunder Bay—Atikokan by a margin of just 36 votes against John Rafferty, whom Mauro had defeated in 2003 by a margin of over 11,000 — Rafferty, in fact, spent much of the night leading Mauro. A judicial recount on October 31 increased Mauro's margin of victory to 50 votes. David Ramsay, similarly, trailed New Democrat John Vanthof in Timiskaming—Cochrane for much of the night, pulling ahead to a winning margin of 634 votes only in the final few polls to report. This was the narrowest margin of victory in Ramsay's 22-year career. Michael Gravelle also retained Thunder Bay—Superior North by an uncharacteristically narrow margin over Jim Foulds.

    As well, Monique Smith retained Nipissing by just 377 votes over Progressive Conservative candidate Bill Vrebosch — in 2003, she had defeated Progressive Conservative incumbent Al McDonald by a wider margin of over 3,000 votes.

    In keeping with this trend, New Democrat incumbents Howard Hampton and Gilles Bisson widened their margins of victory over Liberal challengers compared to 2003, and France Gélinas maintained the same margin that her predecessor, Shelley Martel, had attained in the previous election.

    Notably, the rise in popular support for the New Democrats in Northern Ontario carried over into the 2008 federal election, in which the NDP won nearly every seat in the region for the first time in its history.

    Eastern Ontario

    In Eastern Ontario, the new riding of Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington was carried by PC candidate Randy Hillier, while all 13 existing ridings were carried by their incumbent parties. With the exception of Yasir Naqvi, who carried Ottawa Centre by a much smaller margin over the NDP than Richard Patten had attained in 2003, Liberals in Ottawa improved their winning margins, although outside of Ottawa the popular vote trend remained relatively stable.

    Central Ontario

    The most conservative-friendly area of the province, the PC vote largely held up, with the only Liberal gain being Aileen Carroll winning Barrie, the seat she used to represent federally. This was countered by a PC nominal gain in Newmarket—Aurora. The area also delivered the strongest support in the province for the Green Party, with Shane Jolley finishing a very strong second in Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound with 33.1% of the vote, the best finish ever received by any Green candidate in Canada to that point. The Greens also knocked the NDP into fourth place in a majority of area ridings.

    Midwestern Ontario

    A politically mixed region, Midwestern Ontario had every incumbent party re-elected, as well as some anomalous results; in an election where the PCs were largely held to rural areas, and the Liberals consolidated an urban/suburban base, Elizabeth Witmer held onto the riding of Kitchener—Waterloo for the PCs, while the Liberals won in rural ridings in which they were the incumbent party, such as Huron—Bruce and Perth—Wellington. Further away from the provincewide result, on an election night which demonstrated Liberal strength province wide, Haldimand—Norfolk—Brant delivered the most crushing defeat for a Liberal candidate in the province, with the victorious PC incumbent Toby Barrett coming out 16,571 votes and 38.6% ahead of the Liberal.

    Brampton, Mississauga & Oakville

    Although the suburban Western GTA had traditionally been a good area for the PCs, winning many seats in the area as recently as the Harris days, where it formed part of the 905-area backbone of the PC government, the Liberals won every seat in the area handily, with the victorious Liberal candidates averaging at around 50%. Even Mississauga South, which prior to the 2003 election had not voted Liberal provincially since the riding's creation, and had been expected to be a very tight race, proved a surprisingly easy victory for Charles Sousa, who gained the seat back for the Liberals from Tim Peterson, who had crossed the floor. The NDP continued to be a non-factor in the area, while the Greens growth in popular vote across the province was reflected, with the Greens even beating the NDP into fourth place in Oakville, which ironically had been the only riding in the province the Greens had not run in the previous election.

    Southern Durham and York

    The Liberals continued to dominate York Region, with each incumbent being re-elected by a comfortable margin except in Thornhill where Mario Racco lost to PC candidate Peter Shurman. The newly created riding of Ajax—Pickering, projected to be a close race, elected Liberal Joe Dickson by over 6,000 votes despite having no party nominate incumbents. In southern Durham Region, Liberal Wayne Arthurs was re-elected to the newly distributed Pickering—Scarborough East, while Progressive Conservative Christine Elliott was re-elected to Whitby—Oshawa. Despite high expectations for Sid Ryan's fourth run as an NDP candidate in Oshawa, PC incumbent Jerry Ouellette was again re-elected by a wider majority than in 2003.

    Hamilton, Burlington & Niagara

    An area with several close seats, and a fairly even distribution of seats, every party had a realistic chance of increasing its seat count here. Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, which was a merger of a Liberal held riding and an NDP held riding, and had neither incumbent running, was the most interesting match of the night, with the NDP winning a close race. It proved to be the only change of the election, and every other riding returned the incumbent party, although many in close races, such as Hamilton Mountain (Liberals over NDP), Halton, (PCs over Liberals) and Burlington (PCs over Liberals).

    Southwestern Ontario

    In an area with a strong rural-urban divide, both the NDP and PCs had strong hopes of making gains against the Liberals. The NDP had strong hopes of upsetting high-profile Liberals in both Windsor West, and Windsor—Tecumseh, given the NDP's ownership of those seats federally, and the continued decline of the local industrial economy. London—Fanshawe was similarly also a top target, as the NDP had the riding federally and finished a close second in 2003. Overall, however, the only area seat that changed hands was Sarnia—Lambton, with Culture Minister Caroline Di Cocco, the most high-profile Liberal casualty of the night, losing to PC challenger Bob Bailey.

    Toronto

    All ridings in Toronto were retained by their incumbent parties, with the exception of York South—Weston. New Democrat Paul Ferreira, who had won the seat from the Liberals in a by-election in February 2007, was narrowly defeated by a swing back to Liberal candidate Laura Albanese. Almost twice as many people voted in the riding in the general election compared to the by-election.

    In Toronto's other notable race, Liberal incumbent Kathleen Wynne defeated PC leader John Tory in Don Valley West. Tory previously represented Dufferin—Caledon, but had chosen to run in a Toronto riding in the general election.

    Toronto's only incumbent from 2003 not to run again was Liberal MPP Mary Anne Chambers. The Liberals successfully retained the seat under new candidate Margarett Best.

    See also

    • Politics of Ontario
    • List of political parties in Ontario
    • Premier of Ontario
    • Leader of the Opposition (Ontario)

    References

    Citations

    Further reading

    • Book: Mutimer . David . Canadian Annual Review of Politics and Public Affairs, 2007 . 2014 . University of Toronto Press . Toronto . 9781442648555 . registration.

    External links

    Elections Ontario

    • Ontario's 107 electoral districts

    Canadian news/media networks

    • CBC News Coverage
      • The Globe and Mail: Ontario Election 2007 Full Coverage
    • TheStar.com - Election
    • OttawaStart Ontario Election Guide
    • Google map of poll-by-poll results, Ontario General Election, 2007

    Blogs and forecasters

    • DemocraticSPACE Ontario 2007 Coverage
    • Electionprediction.com: Ontario Election - 2007
    • Election Almanac - Ontario Provincial Election
    • Paulitics 2007 Ontario Election Projections (Antweiler Application & Universal Swing Model)
    • Pollingreport.ca - Ontario Political Situation
    • TrendLines 2007 Ontario & Federal Riding Projections (includes table of 10 model predictions and how they fared on Election Day)
    • Professor Antweiler's Voter Migration Election Forecaster - Ontario 2007 Election
68. Elections Ontario, Unofficial results [Markham]. 295 of 295 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007 of the Liberals and Joyce Savoline^[57]
69. Elections Ontario, Unofficial results [York South—Weston]. 216 of 216 polls reporting. Accessed February 8, 2007 of the NDP wins York South–Weston from the Liberals while Michael Chan^[57]
70. Provincial Party Support March 2007 . Environics . July 2, 2007 . 2007-09-10 . 2007-08-22 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070822202502/http://erg.environics.net/media_room/default.asp?aID=642 . live . The previous results are based on a survey conducted by telephone between June 5 and 30, 2007 among a probability sample of 2,021 adult residents of Canada (aged 18 or older). The sample, which was stratified by region and by community size, is estimated to be accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The question wordings were:(1) If a provincial election were held today, which one of the following parties would you vote for? (2) ([If "Undecided" ask) Perhaps you have not yet made up your mind; is there nevertheless a party you might be presently inclined to support?</ref>||June 5 – 30, 2007||40||39||20||- |- |[[Pollara]]||June 16, 2007^[37] ||June 7–10, 2007||37||37||19||-|-|SES Research||June 3, 2007^[38] ||May 11–15, 2007||35||35||19||11|-|Environics||May 18, 2007^[39] ||March 13–April 3, 2007||33||38||26|||-|Ipsos-Reid || February 24, 2007^[40] ||-|| 38 || 33 || 17 || 9|-|Environics||January 5, 2007^[41] ||December 8–30, 2006||39||37||21||-|-|SES Research||December 17, 2006^[42] ||November 25–27, 2006||42||35||16||7|-|Environics||October 26, 2006^[43] ||September 18 – October 12, 2006||42||33||23||-|-|EKOS || October 18, 2006^[44] ||October 10–12, 2006|| 42.4 || 36.2 || 19.6 |||-|SES Research||October 7, 2006^[45] ||September 30 – October 3, 2006||35||29||18||7|-|Environics||September 9, 2006^[46] ||June 2–24, 2006||35||36||27|| -|-|Vector Research||May 14, 2006||-||39||38||18||5|-|Environics||April 13, 2006||-||34||39||24||-|-|SES Research||March 23, 2006||-||41||34||20||5|-|Léger Marketing||March 22, 2006||-||34||34||20||-|-|SES Research||February 17, 2006||-||41||37||18||4|-|Vector Research||January 21, 2006||-||36||35||23||6|-|Environics||October 16, 2005||-||42||35||21||-|-|Vector Research||September 19, 2005||-||33||41||20||6|-|SES Research||June 14, 2005||-||41||35||21||4|-|Léger Marketing||June 8, 2005||-||42||34||17||-|-|Léger Marketing||April 29, 2005||-||36||37||19||-|-|Vector Research||April 13, 2005||-||35||41||18||5|-|Environics||April 11, 2005||-||35||41||21||-|-|Léger Marketing||March 17, 2005||-||44||33||19||-|-|Vector Research||December 16, 2004||-||39||32||24||5|-|Environics||December 2004||-||37||39||23||-|-|Environics||December 11, 2004||-||35||40||23||-|-|Léger Marketing||September 2004||-||37||35||19||-|-|Vector Research||August 22, 2004||-||37||32||23||9|-|Environics||August 9, 2004||-||35||37||23||4|-|Ipsos-Reid||June 14, 2004||-||32||39||23||6|-|SES Research||June 5, 2004||-||34||41||20||-|-|Decima Research||May 27, 2004||-||32||29||21||-|-|Environics||May 6, 2004||-||45||33||20||1|-|Ipsos-Reid||April 19, 2004||-||45||30||19||5|-|SES Research||January 23, 2004||-||49||29||10||-|-|Environics||January 21, 2004||-||50||30||16||3|-|Ipsos-Reid||December 14, 2003||-||51||27||16||6|-|Ipsos-Reid||November 8, 2003||-||56||27||12||5|-|Environics||October 30, 2003||-||49||29||18||2|-| colspan="2" |Last election (October 2, 2003)||-||46.4||34.6||14.7||2.8|}