2006 Michigan gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2006 Michigan gubernatorial election
Country:Michigan
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Turnout:50.7% 7.2 [1]
Previous Election:2002 Michigan gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2002
Next Election:2010 Michigan gubernatorial election
Next Year:2010
Election Date:November 7, 2006
Image1:File:Jennifer Granholm 5.jpg
Nominee1:Jennifer Granholm
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Running Mate1:John Cherry
Popular Vote1:2,142,513
Percentage1:56.4%
Nominee2:Dick DeVos
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate2:Ruth Johnson
Popular Vote2:1,608,086
Percentage2:42.3%
Map Size:300px
Governor
Before Election:Jennifer Granholm
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jennifer Granholm
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2006 Michigan gubernatorial election was one of the 36 U.S. gubernatorial elections held November 7, 2006. Incumbent Democratic Governor of Michigan Jennifer Granholm was re-elected with 56% of the vote over Republican businessman Dick DeVos and three minor party candidates.[2]

As of 2022, this is the last time the Democratic candidate for Governor carried the counties of Keweenaw, Houghton, Ontonagon, Iron, Dickinson, Menominee, Delta, Schoolcraft, Mackinac, Luce, Chippewa, Mason, Lake, Oceana, Van Buren, Cass, Calhoun, Monroe, Jackson, Tuscola, Shiawassee, Montcalm, Ionia, Gratiot, Midland, Clare, Gladwin, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Arenac, Crawford, Alcona, Alpena, and Presque Isle.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Granholm had no opposition in the primary election, which was held August 8. She retained incumbent Lieutenant Governor John D. Cherry as her running mate.

Republican primary

Candidates

Disqualified from ballot

Withdrawn

DeVos was originally facing two other Republicans; state Representative Jack Hoogendyk of Portage and state Senator Nancy Cassis of Novi, both dropped out by summer 2005. A political unknown, Louis Boven, tried to challenge him in the primary, but failed to meet Michigan election requirements to get on the ballot. Boven later ran an unsuccessful write-in campaign.

DeVos selected former State Representative and Oakland County Clerk Ruth Johnson as his running mate on August 14.[3]

General election

Candidates

Campaign

After her first election as governor in 2002, Granholm was widely seen as a rising star in the Democratic Party. Her popularity dropped after she took office in 2003, largely due to a weak economy and high unemployment. In August 2006, her approval rating was 47 percent.[14]

DeVos, a multimillionaire, had developed substantial political contacts with the full participation of his wife, former Michigan Republican Party chair Betsy DeVos, despite which, fully 85% of the DeVos campaign's contributions were from DeVos' inheritance.[15] As the 2006 election approached, the DeVos family was listed among the biggest Republican campaign contributors in Michigan.[16] The DeVos campaign spent $42.5 million, at that time the most spent on a gubernatorial campaign in Michigan history. $35.5 million of that total came from DeVos' personal fortune, and was at that time the most spent personally by a Republican candidate running for governor. The Granholm campaign spent $15.7 million. The combined money spent by both campaigns made this election the most expensive gubernatorial election in Michigan history. As DeVos funded his campaign himself, he was not eligible for public funds.[17]

The DeVos and Campbell campaigns each made the state's economy their major issue. DeVos criticized the Single Business Tax, high unemployment, and job outsourcing which occurred during Granholm's first term; Campbell assailed the $12 billion taken from Michigan's taxpayers and appropriated to the military siege of Iraq (which he calls "Duh-bya's Folly") and advocated for a local currency, independent of the U.S. dollar which he and running mate David Skrbina say is in imminent jeopardy of collapse. Granholm countered that her policies saved thousands of jobs. She also attacked DeVos's partisanship, wealth, and tenure at Alticor. One of Granholm's most prominent lines of attack was the accusation that Alticor, under DeVos's tenure, outsourced thousands of jobs to China while cutting 1,400 jobs in Michigan, a charge that the DeVos campaign and numerous media factcheckers denied. DeVos, Campbell and Granholm criticized the Michigan Civil Rights Initiative which was exclusively supported by Creswell.[18] [19] and passed by a wide margin.[20]

On August 25, 2006, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick pledged to actively campaign for Granholm and utilize the campaign team which got him re-elected as mayor.[21] The Michigan Democratic Party held their state convention in city of Detroit at Cobo Hall while the Michigan Republican Party held their convention in the City of Novi in Oakland County at the new Rock Financial Showplace.

In October 2006, the Creswell campaign spent over $10,000 on radio advertising, which while small, was the most spent on a such advertising by any Michigan gubernatorial campaign outside the Democratic or Republican parties.[22] [23] The largest investment was made in advertisements on Detroit AM Radio stations WJR and WXYT.[24] These commercials specifically targeted Devos and Granholm by referring to them as candidates of "The two old parties," and berating them for supporting state-supported preferences based on race and sex: A clear reference to MCRI.[25] Campbell spent less than $1,000,[26] as was the case with the Dashairya campaign.[27]

Debates

The DeVos and Granholm campaigns agreed to three televised debates and a single joint appearance. This agreement did not include any provision for participation by third-party candidates.[28] Granholm and DeVos appeared together October 12 at the Detroit Economic Club in which each candidate delivered their job plans, which was described as a debate at the event itself, even if it wasn't officially designated as such.[29]

WKAR-TV debate

The first debate occurred on October 2 at WKAR-TV in East Lansing.[30] Both candidates spent the hour trading charges and countercharges. Detroit News pollster Ed Sarpolus indicated that there was no clear winner in the debate, but Bill Rustem, senior vice president of the nonpartisan policy firm Public Sector Consultants in Lansing, favored Granholm.[31] The consensus of pundits Bill Ballenger, George Bullard, Kathy Barks Hoffman and Rick Albin and capital correspondent Tim Skubick, speaking on the October 6 WKAR-television program Off the Record,[32] was that both DeVos and Granholm emerged losers, losing 2 and 4 percentage points' support after the event. No major gaffes or zingers came out in the debate. Some of the positions were made clear on embryonic stem cell research [33] and abortion.[34] No major gaffes came out in the debate, but one minor zinger was made by Granholm about DeVos' investment in Alterra, a chain of nursing homes which sexually abused and neglected its patients.[35] [36]

WOOD-TV debate

The second was October 10 at WOOD-TV in Grand Rapids. DeVos was more aggressive than before, declaring that Granholm had lied about him having a controlling stake in Alterra Health Care, an elder-care company that suppressed information about the abuse of residents by its employees.[37] According to SEC filings, DeVos and his investment partners jointly owned 40% of Alterra stock totalling $173 million.[38] The chairman of Alterra's board, while a close associate of DeVos, nevertheless maintains that DeVos had no part of running the company himself.[39]

DeVos also asserted that he had convinced President Bush to set a date to meet with the three major Michigan auto companies. Granholm responded that she didn't believe that was true. DeVos admitted after the debate that he misspoke; the President agreed to have a meeting at some point after the election, but did not confirm a date.[40] On October 24, two weeks after this debate was held, a mid-November date was set for the meeting.[41]

WXYZ-TV debate

The third televised debate was October 16 at WXYZ-TV in Southfield. Unlike the previous debates, this one had an invited studio audience of 30 undecided voters, some of whom asked questions to the participating candidates. Like the two previous debates, only two of the five candidates were admitted.[42] [43] Granholm and DeVos sparred on various issues including college tuition, Canadian trash, business taxes, President Bush and negative ads,[44] while Creswell supporters picketed outside.[45] [46] [47] [48]

During the opening statements of the third debate, Gov. Granholm attacked DeVos for using pictures of dead children as a campaign tool against her. However, it was later revealed that DeVos was not the person using the pictures, but supporters of him, who were cheering for him outside of the debate studio.

CMN-TV (of Troy) debate

On October 18 CMN-TV in Troy broadcast an additional debate. This debate was not covered by the agreement between the DeVos and Granholm campaigns.[28] It was the only televised debate to which all gubernatorial candidates were invited. It also was only the only televised debate in which the majority of gubernatorial candidates participated. This debate included Libertarian Gregory Creswell, Green Douglas Campbell, and U.S. Taxpayer Candidate Bhagwan Dashairya (Dashairya identified himself as a Constitution Party (listed on ballot as U.S. Taxpayers Party) candidate).[49] [50] [51] http://www.scottyboman.org

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[52] November 6, 2006
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[53] November 6, 2006
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[54] November 2, 2006
align=left Real Clear Politics[55] November 6, 2006

Polling

DeVos, buoyed by the political ads he ran, led in the polls for most of the late spring and early summer. DeVos' lead eroded when Granholm started running ads; meanwhile, Granholm built up a lead as voters found out more about the candidates culminating in the three debates, and as political fortunes soured for Republicans across the country due to a massive backlash against then president George W. Bush and fatigue over the continuing War in Iraq.[56]

SourceDateGranholm (D)DeVos (R)Creswell (L)Campbell (G)Dashairya (T)
EPIC-MRANov 6, 2006 align=center49%42%
Strategic VisionNov 6, 2006 align=center52%42%
Mason-DixonNov 5, 2006 align=center52%38%0–2%0–2%0–2%
Survey USANov 5, 2006 align=center51%45%2%1%1%
Free Press-Local 4 Michigan PollNov 5, 2006 align=center54%41%
EPIC-MRANov 3, 2006 align=center49%42%
EPIC-MRANov 2, 2006 align=center52%43%
Strategic VisionNov 2, 2006 align=center50%42%
EPIC-MRA Oct 31, 2006 align=center52%42%
Zogby/WSJOct 31, 2006 align=center51.6%42.7%0–5.7%0–5.7%0–5.7%
EPIC-MRAOct 27, 2006 align=center48%43%1%1%
Research 2000Oct 25, 2006 align=center50%40%
Survey USAOct 25, 2006 align=center52%45%1%1%
RasmussenOct 25, 2006 align=center53%42%
Strategic VisionOct 24, 2006 align=center47%43%
Zogby/WSJOct 19, 2006 align=center50.6%44.1%
Free Press-Local 4 Michigan PollOct 15, 2006 align=center49%41%
EPIC-MRA(raw data)Oct 13, 2006 align=center51%42%2%
Survey USAOct 9, 2006 align=center50%45%1%1%1%
RasmussenOct 8, 2006 align=center49%42%
EPIC-MRAOct 5, 2006 align=center46%40%1%1%
Zogby/WSJSept 28, 2006 align=center49.9%40.8%
Strategic VisionSept 20, 2006 align=center47%46%
Survey USASept 18, 200647%47%1%2%1%
EPIC-MRASeptember 14, 2006 align=center50%42%
Zogby/WSJSeptember 11, 2006 align=center49.4%44.0%
RasmussenSeptember 7, 200646% align=center48%
Free Press-Local 4 Michigan PollSeptember 3, 2006 align=center46%44%
Strategic VisionAugust 29, 2006 align=center48%43%
Zogby/WSJAugust 28, 2006 align=center50.8%43.6%
EPIC-MRAAugust 23, 2006 align=center49%42%3%
Survey USAAugust 22, 200647%47%
RasmussenAugust 16, 2006 align=center47%46%
EPIC-MRAAugust 16, 2006 align=center50%47%
Survey USAAugust 8, 200642% align=center50%6%
Rasmussen August 1, 200642% align=center48%
Strategic VisionJuly 27, 200644% align=center48%
EPIC-MRAJuly 26, 2006 align=center47%44%
Zogby/WSJJuly 24, 2006 align=center50.5%44.4%
Free Press-Local 4 Michigan PollJuly 15, 200642% align=center47%
Zogby/WSJJune 21, 2006 align=center48.1%46.2%
EPIC-MRAJune 21, 200644% align=center46%
Strategic VisionJune 21, 200641% align=center48%
RasmussenJune 14, 2006 align=center44%42%
EPIC-MRAJune 12, 200640% align=center48%
Strategic VisionMay 24, 200642% align=center45%
EPIC-MRAMay 11, 200645% align=center46%
MRG of LansingMay 1–9, 200643% align=center44%
RasmussenMay 5, 2006 align=center44%43%
Strategic VisionApril 21, 2006 align=center43%42%
EPIC-MRAApril 11, 200643%43%
Rasmussen March 27, 200644%44%
MRG of LansingMarch 22, 2006 align=center43%41%
Strategic VisionMarch 15, 2006 align=center50%33%
EPIC-MRAMarch 9, 2006 align=center51%41%
RasmussenFeb 14, 2006 align=center44%43%
EPIC-MRAFeb 12, 2006 align=center53%36%
Strategic VisionFeb 3, 2006 align=center48%34%
RasmussenJan 20, 2006 align=center49%38%
Strategic VisionDec 22, 2005 align=center46%35%
Rasmussen Dec 2, 2005 align=center48%36%
EPIC-MRANov 29, 2005 align=center58%35%
Strategic VisionNov 21, 2005 align=center44%33%
EPIC-MRAOct 25, 2005 align=center53%30%
Strategic VisionOct 25, 2005 align=center46%35%
Strategic VisionSept 29, 2005 align=center47%33%

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: General Election Voter Registration/Turnout Statistics. October 6, 2019. August 20, 2019. https://web.archive.org/web/20190820183440/https://www.michigan.gov/sos/0,4670,7-127-1633_8722-29616--,00.html. live.
  2. Land, Terri (Secretary of State). "Election Results GENERAL ELECTION November 07, 2006 (Governor 4 Year Term (1) Position)" . mi.gov (website).
  3. WOOD-TV,"DeVos chooses Ruth Johnson as running mate". "woodtv.com" (website)
  4. News: Schwartz . Leonard . May 9, 2006 . "Upcoming Events" & "Candidates Bring Your Voter Registration Card" . https://web.archive.org/web/20060709061043/http://lpmich.org/lpmonline/archive/N20060509.php . July 9, 2006 . September 26, 2007 . LPM Online.
  5. News: Boman . Scotty . May 23, 2006 . "Upcoming Events" & "Over 70 Libertarians to Run in 2006 Michigan Election" . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20060709100052/http://lpmich.org/lpmonline/archive/N20060523.php . July 9, 2006 . September 26, 2007 . LPM Online.
  6. Land, Terri (Secretary of State)."2006 Official Michigan General Candidate Listing" . http://mi.gov/sos (website).
  7. The Constitution Party was founded as the U.S. Taxpayers' Party in 1992. The national party's name was changed to the Constitution Party in 1999.
  8. U.S. Taxpayers and Constitution Party of Michigan. "Gubernatorial Debate – Part II Bhagwan (Bob) Dashairya Enters Michigan Governor's Race " . ustaxpayersandconstitutionpartymi.com (website).
  9. Web site: SOS – Elections in Michigan . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20170723142138/http://www.michigan.gov/sos/1,1607,7-127-1633---,00.html . 2017-07-23 . 2009-03-11.
  10. News: June 2006 . State Party Newsletter . https://web.archive.org/web/20070929061519/http://www.constitutionpartymi.net/cpmi/state/newsletter/y2006m06.html . 2007-09-29 . Constitution Party of Michigan.
  11. Green Party of Michigan "Green Party of Michigan State Membership Meeting May 20th & 21st 2006, in Boyne City" . "migreens.org" (website)
  12. Greens, US. "Green Party Speakers Bureau". gp.org (website).
  13. Web site: 2006-10-09 . Bio: Douglas Campbell . https://web.archive.org/web/20070930160150/http://www.clickondetroit.com/decision2006/10034960/detail.html . 2007-09-30 . 2007-11-25.
  14. Web site: Strategic Vision Political . 2006-11-09 . August 27, 2006 . https://web.archive.org/web/20060902045345/http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/michigan_poll_082906.htm . September 2, 2006 .
  15. Land, Terri Lynn (Michigan Secretary of State). " Campaign Finance Disclosure"
  16. Web site: DeVoses pour millions into GOP causes . June 18, 2006 . 2006-11-09 . Detroit Free Press . Christoff, Chris . https://web.archive.org/web/20060627023047/http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=%2F20060618%2FNEWS06%2F606180604%2F1008 . June 27, 2006 .
  17. Web site: 2006 Citizen's Guide to Michigan Campaign Finance . Michigan Campaign Finance Network . 18 July 2007 . 18 January 2015 . 5 December 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141205140450/http://www.mcfn.org/pdfs/reports/07_MCFN_Cit_Guide.pdf . live .
  18. Creswell, Gregory "Equal Means Equal" . lpwm.org (website).
  19. Creswell, Gregory "campaign site" . "gregcreswell.org" (website).
  20. Land, Terri (Secretary of State)."State Proposal – 06-2: Constitutional Amendment: Ban Affirmative Action Programs" . mi.gov (website).
  21. http://detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060825/POLITICS01/608250340 Detnews.com | This article is no longer available online
  22. http://miboecfr.nicusa.com/cfr/dumpimages/2784121.pdf
  23. Land, Terri (Secretary of State)."Gubernatorial Committee Search" . "mi.gov" (website)
  24. http://miboecfr.nicusa.com/cfr/dumpimages/2805101.pdf
  25. Creswell, Gregory "Radio Commercial In Use" . "gregcreswell.lpwm.org" (website)
  26. http://miboecfr.nicusa.com/cfr/dumpimages/2743511.pdf
  27. http://miboecfr.nicusa.com/cfr/dumpimages/2802601.pdf
  28. Web site: Agreement Governing Debates and Joint Appearances in Michigan's 2006 Gubernatorial Campaign . . January 18, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160303170602/http://woodtv.triton.net/news/debate/agreement.pdf . 2016-03-03 .
  29. News: Granholm, DeVos find common ground on 1 topic . . October 13, 2006 . 18 January 2015 . 6 October 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20221006122433/https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1350&dat=20061013&id=tnhhAAAAIBAJ&pg=6708,3362642 . live .
  30. News: A Special Broadcast from WKAR . https://web.archive.org/web/20061006124328/http://wkar.org/specials/debateforgovernor/ . October 6, 2006 . WKAR-TV.
  31. http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061003/POLITICS01/610030400
  32. Web site: Off the Record . 2007-09-10 . https://web.archive.org/web/20061006134359/https://wkar.org/offtherecord/program.php?num=2007-14 . 2006-10-06 .
  33. Web site: Lansing State Journal - Home. www.lsj.com . https://web.archive.org/web/20061004003635/http://www.lsj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=%2F20061003%2FNEWS01%2F610030335%2F1312 . 2006-10-04.
  34. Web site: The Oakland Press: Local News . 2006-10-03 . https://web.archive.org/web/20061021174925/http://www.theoaklandpress.com/stories/100306/loc_2006100327.shtml . 2006-10-21 .
  35. http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061004/POLITICS01/610040369
  36. News: http://www.mlive.com/news/grpress/index.ssf?%2Fbase%2Fnews-32%2F1160206504163180.xml&coll=6 . Grand Rapids Press . 2006-10-08 . 2016-03-04 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160304050253/http://www.mlive.com/news/grpress/index.ssf?%2Fbase%2Fnews-32%2F1160206504163180.xml&coll=6 . dead .
  37. Web site: Archived copy . www.mlive.com . 22 May 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070930153914/http://www.mlive.com/news/grpress/index.ssf?/base/news-32/116057011613340.xml&coll=6&thispage=2 . 30 September 2007 .
  38. Web site: ALTERRA HEALTHCARE CORP Amended Annual Report (10-K/A) ITEM 12 SECURITY OWNERSHIP OF CERTAIN BENEFICIAL OWNERS AND ... . 2006-10-12 . https://web.archive.org/web/20071001005040/http://sec.edgar-online.com/2001/04/30/0000950144-01-501321/Section9.asp . 2007-10-01 .
  39. News: http://www.mlive.com/news/muchronicle/index.ssf?%2Fbase%2Fnews-5%2F1160059527159120.xml&coll=8&thispage=1 . Muskegon Chronicle . 2006-10-12 . 2007-09-30 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070930155014/http://www.mlive.com/news/muchronicle/index.ssf?%2Fbase%2Fnews-5%2F1160059527159120.xml&coll=8&thispage=1 . dead .
  40. Web site: Ludington Daily News shorelinemedia.net . 2006-10-11 . 2012-02-05 . https://web.archive.org/web/20120205185025/http://www.ludingtondailynews.com/news.php?story_id=33320 . live .
  41. http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061025/AUTO01/610250385
  42. News: Mike . Ellis . Tonight's debate will lack three candidates: Campbell, Dashairya, Creswell also weren't invited to first two . October 16, 2006 . Central Michigan University . https://web.archive.org/web/20070927005034/http://www.cm-life.com/home/index.cfm?event=displayArticle&ustory_id=c97c23df-80bd-44d2-8560-8bca8249e39e . 2007-09-27 .
  43. Web site: WXYZ: Local News . 2006-10-17 . https://web.archive.org/web/20061023003027/http://www.detnow.com/wxyz/nw_local_news/article/0,2132,WXYZ_15924_5070251,00.html . 2006-10-23 .
  44. Web site: Error: Invalid story key (C4,20061016,NEWS99,61016049,AR). freep.com . https://web.archive.org/web/20070929122248/http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=%2F20061016%2FNEWS99%2F61016049 . 2007-09-29.
  45. News: Scotty . Boman . Mobalize On October 16th. Make WXYZ take notice . October 3, 2006 . Libertarian Party of Michigan . https://web.archive.org/web/20080918045917/http://www.mi.lp.org/ENewsletters/N20061003.htm . September 18, 2008 . mdy-all .
  46. Web site: Archived copy . 2007-07-28 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070928094604/http://michiganlp.org/Pictures/_w/October_16_debate_JPG.jpg . 2007-09-28 .
  47. Web site: Archived copy . 2007-07-28 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070928094556/http://michiganlp.org/Pictures/_w/debate_night_jpg.jpg . 2007-09-28 .
  48. Web site: wxyz — Campaign Template . 2007-07-28 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070928014548/http://gregcreswell.lpwm.org/greg-campaigning/copy_of_wxyz/view . 2007-09-28 .
  49. US Taxpayers & Constitution Party of Michigan Constitution / US Taxpayers Party Website . "ustaxpayersandconstitutionpartymi.com" (website)
  50. Web site: Local News . 2007-07-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070807014007/http://www.gp.org/press/states/mi/mi_2006_10_17.shtml . 2007-08-07 .
  51. Web site: Welcome to Community Media Network Public Access Television Troy, Michigan . 2007-07-26 . https://web.archive.org/web/20070928185119/http://www.cmntv.org/index.html . 2007-09-28 .
  52. Web site: 2006 Governor Race Ratings for November 6, 2006. The Cook Political Report. October 1, 2006. June 5, 2008. https://web.archive.org/web/20080605094803/https://cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_gov_ratings_nov6.pdf.
  53. Web site: Election Eve 2006: THE FINAL PREDICTIONS . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 6, 2006 . June 25, 2021 . May 5, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210505164311/https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/ljs2006110601/ . live .
  54. Web site: 2006 Gubernatorial Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . June 25, 2021 . June 26, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210626000103/https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/governor/2006-gubernatorial-ratings . live .
  55. Web site: Election 2006 . Real Clear Politics . June 25, 2021 . May 6, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210506041734/http://www1.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/writeup/election_2006-21.html . live .
  56. News: With Election Driven by Iraq, Voters Want New Approach - The New York Times. The New York Times. 2 November 2006. 22 February 2017. 6 October 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161006061454/http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/02/us/politics/02poll.html?ex=. live.