2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:	2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee
Country:	Tennessee
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2000 United States presidential election in Tennessee
Previous Year:	2000
Next Election:	2008 United States presidential election in Tennessee
Next Year:	2008
Election Date:	November 2, 2004
Image1:	George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee1:	George W. Bush
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:	Texas
Running Mate1:	Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote1:	11
Popular Vote1:	1,384,375
Percentage1:	56.81%
Nominee2:	John Kerry
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:	Massachusetts
Running Mate2:	John Edwards
Electoral Vote2:	0
Popular Vote2:	1,036,477
Percentage2:	42.51%
President
Before Election:	George W. Bush
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	George W. Bush
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:	66.32% ^[1] 3.29 pp

The 2004 United States presidential election in Tennessee was held on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Tennessee was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 14.30% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. In the past 14 presidential elections, the Republican nominee won ten of them. The state trended more Republican by 10.43 points from Bush's performance in 2000. Bush won most of the counties and congressional districts in the state. Third-party and independent candidates made up just 0.68% of the vote.

As of 2020, this is the last time that the following counties have voted Democratic in a presidential election: Trousdale County, Humphreys County, Grundy County, Lake County, Benton County, Overton County, Smith County, Lauderdale County, Van Buren County, Stewart County, Perry County, and Clay County. This is also the last time that Tennessee has voted to the right of Arkansas, or to the left of Georgia, Montana and Texas on the presidential level.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

See main article: 2004 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary.

Election Name:	2004 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary
Country:	Tennessee
Previous Election:	2000 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary
Previous Year:	2000
Next Election:	2008 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary
Next Year:	2008
Votes For Election:	85 Democratic National Convention delegates (69 pledged, 16 unpledged) The number of pledged delegates received is determined by the popular vote
Candidate1:	John Kerry
Color1:	00539f
Home State1:	Massachusetts
Popular Vote1:	151,527
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Percentage1:	41.02%
Delegate Count1:	31
Home State4:	Arkansas
Home State2:	North Carolina
Popular Vote2:	97,914
Percentage2:	26.51%
Delegate Count2:	20
Color4:	039042
Candidate4:	Wesley Clark
Popular Vote4:	85,315
Percentage4:	23.10%
Delegate Count4:	18
Map Size:	380px
Candidate2:	John Edwards
Color2:	e50100

The 2004 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary was held on February 10, 2004. John Kerry won with 41.0% of the vote and was awarded 31 delegates. John Edwards came second with 26.5% of the vote and 20 delegates. Wesley Clark came third with 23.1% of the vote and 18 delegates. All other candidates did not receive any delegates

2004 Tennessee Democratic presidential primary^[2]
Party		Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Delegates^[3]
	Democratic	John Kerry	151,527	41.02%	31
	Democratic	John Edwards	97,914	26.51%	20
	Democratic	Wesley Clark	85,315	23.10%	18
	Democratic	Howard Dean (withdrawn)	16,128	4.37%	0
	Democratic	Al Sharpton	6,107	1.65%	0
	Democratic	Joe Lieberman	3,213	0.87%	0
	Democratic	Uncommitted	2,727	0.74%	0
	Democratic	Carol Moseley Braun (withdrawn)	2,490	0.67%	0
	Democratic	Dennis Kucinich	2,279	0.62%	0
	Democratic	Dick Gephardt (withdrawn)	1,402	0.38%	0
	Democratic	Lyndon LaRouche	283	0.08%	0
Totals			626,738	100.00%	69

Republican primary

See main article: 2004 Tennessee Republican presidential primary.

Election Name:	2004 Tennessee Republican presidential primary
Country:	Tennessee
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2000 Tennessee Republican presidential primary
Previous Year:	2000
Next Election:	2008 Tennessee Republican presidential primary
Next Year:	2008
Candidate1:	George W. Bush
Color1:	d30036
Home State1:	Texas
Delegate Count1:	52
Popular Vote1:	94,557
Percentage1:	95.45%
Candidate2:	Uncommitted
Color2:	000000
Delegate Count2:	0
Popular Vote2:	4,504
Percentage2:	4.55%

The 2004 Tennessee Republican presidential primary was held on February 10, 2004. Incumbent president George W. Bush won the primary and all of the state's delegates.

2004 Tennessee Republican presidential primary^[4] ! style="text-align:left;"

Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
George W. Bush (incumbent)	94,557	95.45%	52
Write-ins	4,504	4.55%	rowspan="1"
Total	99,061	100%	52

General election

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[5]

!Source!Ranking

D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each with at least 49%. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading 56% to 40%.^[6]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,636,916.^[7] Kerry raised $1,187,742.^[8]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election.^{[9] [10]}

United States presidential election in Tennessee, 2004^[11]
Party		Candidate	Running mate	Votes	Percentage	Electoral votes
	Republican	George W. Bush (incumbent)	Dick Cheney (incumbent)	1,384,375	56.81%	11
	Democratic	John Kerry	John Edwards	1,036,477	42.51%	0
	Independent	Ralph Nader	Peter Camejo	8,992	0.37%	0
	Libertarian	Michael Badnarik	Richard Campagna	4,866	0.20%	0
	Constitution Party	Michael Peroutka	Chuck Baldwin	2,570	0.11%	0
	Green Party	David Cobb	Pat LaMarche	33	0.00%	0
	Socialist	Walt Brown	Mary Alice Herbert	6	0.00%	0
Totals				2,437,919	100.00%	11
Voter turnout (Voting age population)						54.8%

By county

County	George W. Bush Republican		John Kerry Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
		%		%		%		%
	Anderson		18,510		58.42%		12,896		40.70%		276		0.87%		5,614		17.72%		31,682
	Bedford		8,351		60.93%		5,268		38.44%		87		0.63%		3,083		22.49%		13,706
	Benton		3,161		44.58%		3,869		54.57%		60		0.85%		-708		-9.99%		7,090
	Bledsoe		2,849		59.24%		1,927		40.07%		33		0.69%		922		19.17%		4,809
	Blount		33,241		68.24%		15,047		30.89%		424		0.88%		18,194		37.35%		48,712
	Bradley		25,951		72.82%		9,431		26.46%		255		0.72%		16,520		46.36%		35,637
	Campbell		7,859		55.67%		6,163		43.65%		96		0.68%		1,696		12.02%		14,118
	Cannon		2,931		53.48%		2,515		45.89%		35		0.64%		416		7.59%		5,481
	Carroll		6,605		56.18%		5,070		43.12%		82		0.70%		1,535		13.06%		11,757
	Carter		15,768		70.67%		6,395		28.66%		150		0.67%		9,373		42.01%		22,313
	Cheatham		9,676		61.64%		5,918		37.70%		103		0.66%		3,758		23.94%		15,697
	Chester		4,086		64.28%		2,242		35.27%		29		0.45%		1,844		29.01%		6,357
	Claiborne		6,448		61.18%		4,034		38.27%		58		0.55%		2,414		22.91%		10,540
	Clay		1,650		49.15%		1,675		49.90%		32		0.96%		-25		-0.75%		3,357
	Cocke		8,297		67.40%		3,935		31.96%		79		0.65%		4,362		35.44%		12,311
	Coffee		11,793		58.48%		8,243		40.87%		131		0.65%		3,550		17.61%		20,167
	Crockett		3,242		56.66%		2,459		42.97%		21		0.37%		783		13.69%		5,722
	Cumberland		15,144		64.07%		8,327		35.23%		166		0.70%		6,817		28.84%		23,637
	Davidson		107,839		44.51%		132,737		54.78%		1,726		0.71%		-24,898		-10.27%		242,302
	Decatur		2,566		52.59%		2,268		46.48%		45		0.92%		298		6.11%		4,879
	DeKalb		3,685		51.37%		3,445		48.03%		43		0.60%		240		3.34%		7,173
	Dickson		10,567		54.76%		8,597		44.55%		134		0.69%		1,970		10.21%		19,298
	Dyer		8,447		61.17%		5,287		38.29%		75		0.54%		3,160		22.88%		13,809
	Fayette		8,962		60.81%		5,696		38.65%		79		0.53%		3,266		22.16%		14,737
	Fentress		4,293		64.07%		2,371		35.39%		36		0.54%		1,922		28.68%		6,700
	Franklin		9,129		53.46%		7,800		45.68%		148		0.87%		1,329		7.78%		17,077
	Gibson		10,596		55.13%		8,511		44.28%		114		0.59%		2,085		10.85%		19,221
	Giles		6,163		53.42%		5,273		45.71%		101		0.87%		890		7.71%		11,537
	Grainger		4,907		65.19%		2,569		34.13%		51		0.68%		2,338		31.06%		7,527
	Greene		16,382		67.71%		7,635		31.56%		177		0.73%		8,747		36.15%		24,194
	Grundy		2,107		42.75%		2,789		56.58%		33		0.67%		-682		-13.83%		4,929
	Hamblen		14,742		66.05%		7,433		33.30%		143		0.64%		7,309		32.75%		22,318
	Hamilton		78,547		57.36%		57,302		41.85%		1,087		0.79%		21,245		15.51%		136,936
	Hancock		1,756		68.84%		777		30.46%		18		0.69%		979		38.38%		2,551
	Hardeman		4,704		44.95%		5,685		54.32%		77		0.74%		-981		-9.37%		10,466
	Hardin		6,087		61.15%		3,834		38.52%		33		0.33%		2,253		22.63%		9,954
	Hawkins		13,447		66.46%		6,684		33.04%		102		0.51%		6,763		33.42%		20,233
	Haywood		3,140		41.60%		4,359		57.75%		49		0.65%		-1,219		-16.15%		7,548
	Henderson		6,585		65.22%		3,448		34.15%		63		0.63%		3,137		31.07%		10,096
	Henry		7,340		55.70%		5,732		43.50%		105		0.80%		1,608		12.20%		13,177
	Hickman		4,359		50.26%		4,263		49.15%		51		0.59%		96		1.11%		8,673
	Houston		1,440		40.02%		2,126		59.09%		32		0.89%		-686		-19.07%		3,598
	Humphreys		3,261		41.85%		4,485		57.55%		47		0.60%		-1,224		-15.70%		7,793
	Jackson		2,026		40.07%		2,998		59.30%		32		0.64%		-972		-19.23%		5,056
	Jefferson		11,625		67.53%		5,469		31.77%		121		0.70%		6,156		35.76%		17,215
	Johnson		4,634		71.51%		1,812		27.96%		34		0.53%		2,822		43.55%		6,480
	Knox		110,803		62.10%		66,013		37.00%		1,603		0.90%		44,790		25.10%		178,419
	Lake		1,039		43.84%		1,317		55.57%		14		0.59%		-278		-11.73%		2,370
	Lauderdale		4,164		47.96%		4,474		51.53%		44		0.51%		-310		-3.57%		8,682
	Lawrence		9,959		59.79%		6,592		39.57%		107		0.64%		3,367		20.22%		16,658
	Lewis		2,819		55.78%		2,192		43.37%		43		0.85%		627		12.41%		5,054
	Lincoln		7,829		62.85%		4,546		36.49%		82		0.66%		3,283		26.36%		12,457
	Loudon		14,041		70.69%		5,708		28.74%		115		0.58%		8,333		41.95%		19,864
	McMinn		11,980		66.54%		5,891		32.72%		132		0.73%		6,089		33.82%		18,003
	McNairy		5,787		58.31%		4,101		41.32%		36		0.36%		1,686		16.99%		9,924
	Macon		4,670		62.83%		2,738		36.84%		25		0.34%		1,932		25.99%		7,433
	Madison		21,679		56.05%		16,840		43.54%		156		0.40%		4,839		12.51%		38,675
	Marion		5,862		51.01%		5,548		48.28%		82		0.71%		314		2.73%		11,492
	Marshall		5,825		54.88%		4,722		44.48%		68		0.64%		1,103		10.40%		10,615
	Maury		17,505		58.27%		12,379		41.20%		159		0.53%		5,126		17.07%		30,043
	Meigs		2,500		60.50%		1,595		38.60%		37		0.90%		905		21.90%		4,132
	Monroe		10,123		65.02%		5,354		34.39%		91		0.58%		4,769		30.63%		15,568
	Montgomery		28,627		58.42%		20,070		40.96%		301		0.61%		8,557		17.46%		48,998
	Moore		1,668		60.13%		1,084		39.08%		22		0.79%		584		21.05%		2,774
	Morgan		4,401		59.80%		2,924		39.73%		35		0.48%		1,477		20.07%		7,360
	Obion		7,859		58.06%		5,549		41.00%		127		0.94%		2,310		17.06%		13,535
	Overton		3,941		46.31%		4,518		53.09%		51		0.60%		-577		-6.78%		8,510
	Perry		1,522		48.32%		1,579		50.13%		49		1.55%		-57		-1.81%		3,150
	Pickett		1,600		60.49%		1,033		39.05%		12		0.46%		567		21.44%		2,645
	Polk		3,924		58.57%		2,724		40.66%		52		0.77%		1,200		17.91%		6,700
	Putnam		15,637		59.14%		10,566		39.96%		239		0.91%		5,071		19.18%		26,442
	Rhea		7,301		66.05%		3,665		33.16%		88		0.79%		3,636		32.89%		11,054
	Roane		14,467		61.99%		8,706		37.30%		165		0.70%		5,761		24.69%		23,338
	Robertson		15,331		60.54%		9,865		38.96%		127		0.50%		5,466		21.58%		25,323
	Rutherford		52,200		61.84%		31,647		37.49%		562		0.67%		20,553		24.35%		84,409
	Scott		4,509		59.11%		3,086		40.46%		33		0.44%		1,423		18.65%		7,628
	Sequatchie		2,951		59.22%		1,986		39.86%		46		0.92%		965		19.36%		4,983
	Sevier		22,143		71.50%		8,621		27.84%		206		0.67%		13,522		43.66%		30,970
	Shelby		158,137		41.91%		216,945		57.50%		2,200		0.58%		-58,808		-15.59%		377,282
	Smith		3,739		47.76%		4,044		51.66%		45		0.57%		-305		-3.90%		7,828
	Stewart		2,675		47.91%		2,860		51.23%		48		0.86%		-185		-3.32%		5,583
	Sullivan		42,555		67.94%		19,637		31.35%		447		0.72%		22,918		36.59%		62,639
	Sumner		40,181		64.84%		21,458		34.63%		329		0.53%		18,723		30.21%		61,968
	Tipton		14,178		65.41%		7,379		34.04%		120		0.56%		6,799		31.37%		21,677
	Trousdale		1,314		41.18%		1,851		58.01%		26		0.82%		-537		-16.83%		3,191
	Unicoi		5,030		67.40%		2,374		31.81%		59		0.80%		2,656		35.59%		7,463
	Union		4,145		61.77%		2,524		37.62%		41		0.61%		1,621		24.15%		6,710
	Van Buren		1,120		47.72%		1,209		51.51%		18		0.76%		-89		-3.79%		2,347
	Warren		7,503		52.10%		6,808		47.28%		89		0.62%		695		4.82%		14,400
	Washington		29,735		66.07%		14,944		33.20%		327		0.73%		14,791		32.87%		45,006
	Wayne		3,999		66.83%		1,951		32.60%		34		0.56%		2,048		34.23%		5,984
	Weakley		7,817		57.92%		5,588		41.40%		91		0.67%		2,229		16.52%		13,496
	White		5,269		55.49%		4,147		43.68%		79		0.84%		1,122		11.81%		9,495
	Williamson		57,451		72.13%		21,732		27.28%		467		0.59%		35,719		44.85%		79,650
	Wilson		28,924		65.07%		15,277		34.37%		251		0.56%		13,647		30.70%		44,452
Totals	1,383,336	56.81%	1,035,160	42.51%	16,453	0.68%	348,176	14.30%	2,434,949

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Bedford (Largest city: Shelbyville)
• Campbell (Largest city: LaFollette)
• Cannon (Largest city: Woodbury)
• Crockett (Largest city: Bells)
• Decatur (Largest city: Parsons)
• DeKalb (Largest city: Smithville)
• Dickson (Largest city: Dickson)
• Franklin (Largest city: Winchester)
• Gibson (Largest city: Humboldt)
• Giles (Largest city: Pulaski)
• Henry (Largest city: Paris)
• Hickman (Largest city: Centerville)
• Lewis (Largest city: Hohenwald)
• Marion (Largest city: Jasper)
• Marshall (Largest city: Lewisburg)
• Robertson (Largest city: Springfield)
• Warren (Largest city: McMinnville)
• White (Largest city: Sparta)

By congressional district

Bush won 7 of 9 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats.^[12]

District	Bush	Kerry	Representative
		68%	31%		William L Jenkins
		64%	35%		John J. Duncan Jr.
		61%	38%		Zach Wamp
		58%	41%		Lincoln Davis
		48%	52%		Jim Cooper
		60%	40%		Bart Gordon
		66%	33%		Marsha Blackburn
		53%	47%		John S. Tanner
		30%	70%		Harold Ford Jr.

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Tennessee cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Tennessee is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 9 were pledged to Bush/Cheney:^[13]

1. Susan Anderson
2. Betty Cannon
3. Winfield Dunn
4. Geneva Williams Harrison
5. Brock Hill
6. Bruce Montgomery
7. Claude Ramsey
8. Bob Rial
9. John Ryder
10. Mark Tipps
11. Sally Wall

Analysis

While the Republicans control slightly more than half of the state, Democrats have strong support in the cities of Memphis and Nashville and in parts of Middle Tennessee and in West Tennessee north and east of Memphis^[14] The latter area includes a large rural African-American population.^[15]

Despite Tennessee being a swing state from the 1950s to the 2000s, it was not seriously contested in 2004. Vice President Al Gore, a former U.S. Senator from Tennessee, lost his home state in 2000 albeit by a thin margin. The majority of voters support for Republican George W. Bush increased in 2004, with his margin of victory in the state increasing from 4% in 2000 to 14% in 2004.^[16] Southern Democratic nominees (e.g., Lyndon B. Johnson, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton) usually fare better in Tennessee, especially among split-ticket voters outside the metropolitan areas.

, this is the last election in which Trousdale County, Humphreys County, Grundy County, Lake County, Benton County, Overton County, Smith County, Lauderdale County, Van Buren County, Stewart County, Perry County, and Clay County voted for the Democratic candidate, as John McCain would outperform Bush in the state four years later.

See also

• Presidency of George W. Bush
• 2004 Tennessee elections
• 2004 United States elections

Notes and References

1. News: November 2, 2004 . Tennessee Voter Turnout in 2004 . Tennessee Secretary of State . February 28, 2023.
2. Web site: 2004 Presidential Democratic Primary Election Results - Tennessee. Leip. Dave. Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20100316014258/http://uselectionatlas.org:80/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&fips=47&f=0&off=0&elect=1 . 2010-03-16 . 2020-03-16.
3. Web site: Tennessee Democratic Delegation 2004. www.thegreenpapers.com. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20040205183202/http://www.thegreenpapers.com:80/P04/TN-D.phtml . 2004-02-05 . 2020-03-16.
4. Web site: RptNewRepPrimary . 2024-04-06 . Tennessee Secretary of State.
5. Web site: Archived copy . dcpoliticalreport.com . 17 January 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW . 21 November 2010 . dead.
6. Web site: Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections . 2009-11-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20081128095851/http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=47 . 2008-11-28 . dead .
7. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President. Campaignmoney.com. 13 August 2018.
8. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President. Campaignmoney.com. 13 August 2018.
9. Web site: CNN.com Specials. Cnn.com. 13 August 2018.
10. Web site: CNN.com Specials. Cnn.com. 13 August 2018.
11. Web site: 2004 Presidential General Election Results - Tennessee.
12. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project. Swingstateproject.com. 13 August 2018.
13. Web site: U. S. Electoral College 2008 Election - Certificates. Archives.gov. 13 August 2018.
14. Web site: Map - Tennessee 2000 Election Mapper . 2009-11-29 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090103234800/http://216.55.182.132/FairData/TN_Registration/map.asp?command=scope&map=0 . 2009-01-03 . dead .
15. http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable?_bm=n&_lang=en&mt_name=DEC_2000_PL_U_GCTPL_ST2&format=ST-2&_box_head_nbr=GCT-PL&ds_name=DEC_2000_PL_U&geo_id=04000US47 Tennessee by County - GCT-PL. Race and Hispanic or Latino 2000
16. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/tennessee/tennessee_mccain_leads_both_democrats_by_double_digits Tennessee: McCain Leads Both Democrats by Double Digits