2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Country:New Jersey
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2000 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Previous Year:2000
Next Election:2008 United States presidential election in New Jersey
Next Year:2008
Election Date:November 2, 2004
Image1:John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee1:John Kerry
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Massachusetts
Running Mate1:John Edwards
Electoral Vote1:15
Popular Vote1:1,911,430
Percentage1:52.92%
Nominee2:George W. Bush
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Texas
Running Mate2:Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:1,670,003
Percentage2:46.24%
Map Size:405px
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:George W. Bush
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 15 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

New Jersey was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 6.68% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered it as a state Kerry would win, or a blue state. Due to the impact of the September 11, 2001 attacks, however, and Governor James McGreevey's resignation amidst scandal, the state was considered a potentially closer than usual race. Polls showed Senator John F. Kerry with a slim lead throughout the campaign and the Republicans invested some campaign funds in the state. In the end, Kerry carried New Jersey by a comfortable margin, albeit narrower than usual for a 21st-century Democrat.

This remains the only election since 1880 in which the Republican nominee won the popular vote without New Jersey, and the only time it voted for the popular vote loser since 1976., this is the last election in which the Democratic margin of victory was in single digits, or that the Republican won Somerset County.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Cook Political Report
Research 2000
Zogby International
The Washington PostWashington Post
Washington Dispatch
Washington Times
The New York Times
CNN
Newsweek
Associated Press
Rasmussen Reports

Polling

Kerry won most of the pre-election polls taken in this state, but mostly by small margins. The final 3 polling average showed the Democratic leading 49% to 42%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $5,934,011.[3] Kerry raised $6,513,274.[4]

Advertising and visits

President George W. Bush visited Marlton, New Jersey, in Burlington County for a rally on October 18, 2004.[5]

Analysis

Generally, Kerry was very dominant in the urban centers of the state, particularly in Essex, Hudson, and Camden Counties. However, Bush made inroads in Bergen County, where many wealthy residents reside, and in other South Jersey counties. Bush controlled largely rural parts of the state, such as the Northwest (Hunterdon, Somerset, and Morris are also among the 10 wealthiest counties in America) and Salem County. Monmouth County's wealthy population and Ocean and Cape May Counties' older population also contributed to Bush's relative success in this largely Democratic state.

This would also be the first election in which a Northern Democrat carried New Jersey since 1960 when fellow Massachusetts Democrat John F. Kennedy did so. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates to carry the state were all from the South (Lyndon B. Johnson was from Texas, Bill Clinton from Arkansas, and Al Gore from Tennessee), even though New Jersey is a northern state. This is the only time a president was elected twice without ever carrying any of the state's electoral votes either time, and only the second occasion (after 1864) that any president won two terms without ever carrying the state's popular vote either time.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in New Jersey[6] [7]
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticJohn Kerry 1,911,43052.92%15
RepublicanGeorge W. Bush (Inc.)1,670,00346.24%0
IndependentRalph Nader19,4180.54%0
LibertarianMichael Badnarik4,5140.12%0
ConstitutionMichael Peroutka2,7500.08%0
Green1,8070.05%0
SocialistWalt Brown6640.02%0
Bill Van Auken5750.02%0
Socialist WorkersRoger Calero5300.01%0
Totals3,611,691100.00%15
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)56%/72%

By county

CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Atlantic55,74652.54%49,48746.64%8640.81%6,2595.90%106,097
Bergen207,66651.88%189,83347.43%2,7450.69%17,8334.45%400,244
Burlington110,41153.09%95,93646.13%1,6090.77%14,4756.96%207,956
Camden137,76562.36%81,42736.86%1,7410.79%56,33825.50%220,933
Cape May21,47542.31%28,83256.80%4550.90%−7,357−14.49%50,762
Cumberland27,87552.41%24,36245.81%9481.78%3,5136.60%53,185
Essex203,68170.39%83,37428.81%2,2930.79%120,30741.58%289,348
Gloucester66,83552.23%60,03346.91%1,0960.86%6,8025.32%127,964
Hudson127,44767.24%60,64631.99%1,4610.77%66,80135.25%189,554
Hunterdon26,05039.07%39,88859.82%7421.11%−13,838−20.75%66,680
Mercer91,58061.25%56,60437.86%1,3260.89%34,97623.39%149,510
Middlesex166,62856.33%126,49242.76%2,6850.91%40,13613.57%295,805
Monmouth133,77344.60%163,65054.56%2,5160.84%−29,877−9.96%299,939
Morris98,06641.70%135,24157.51%1,8470.79%−37,175−15.81%235,154
Ocean99,83938.93%154,20460.13%2,4240.95%−54,365−21.20%256,467
Passaic94,96255.43%75,20043.90%1,1490.67%19,76211.53%171,311
Salem13,74946.17%15,72152.79%3111.04%−1,972−6.62%29,781
Somerset66,47647.39%72,50851.69%1,2950.92%−6,032−4.30%140,279
Sussex23,99034.54%44,50664.08%9621.38%−20,516−29.54%69,458
Union119,37258.66%82,51740.55%1,6130.79%36,85518.11%203,502
Warren18,04437.43%29,54261.28%6221.29%−11,498−23.85%48,208
Totals1,911,43052.92%1,670,00346.23%30,7040.85%241,4276.69%3,612,137

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kerry won 7 of 13 congressional districts.[8]

DistrictKerryBushRepresentative
61%39%Rob Andrews
49%50%Frank LoBiondo
49%51%
44%56%Chris Smith
43%57%Scott Garrett
57%43%Frank Pallone Jr.
47%53%
59%41%Bill Pascrell
59%41%Steve Rothman
82%18%Donald Payne
42%58%Rodney Frelinghuysen
54%46%Rush Holt Jr.
69%31%Bob Menendez

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of NJ cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NJ is allocated 15 electors because it has 13 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 15 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 15 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 15 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.[9]

  1. Warren Wallace
  2. Wilfredo Caraballo
  3. Tom Canzanella
  4. Carolyn Walch
  5. Peggy Anastos
  6. Bernard Kenny
  7. Ronald Rice
  8. Abed Awad
  9. Jack McGreevey – (Father of former Gov. James McGreevey)
  10. Wendy Benchle
  11. Loni Kaplan
  12. Carolyn Wade
  13. Riletta L. Cream
  14. Bernadette McPherson
  15. Upendra Chivukula

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: D.C.'s Political Report's 2004 Presidential Ratings . October 29, 2004 . D.C.'s Political Report . June 6, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW . November 21, 2010 . dead.
  2. Web site: Election poll data . 2004 . uselectionatlas.org.
  3. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President. campaignmoney.com.
  4. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President. campaignmoney.com.
  5. Web site: George W Bush Campaign Rally - Marlton, NJ - Oct 18, 2004 . YouTube. https://ghostarchive.org/varchive/youtube/20211212/7jiLkK_UVks. 2021-12-12 . live. 2020-12-19.
  6. Web site: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - New Jersey 2004.
  7. Web site: Official General Election Candidates List.
  8. Web site: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project.
  9. Web site: U. S. Electoral College 2004 Certificate. archives.gov. May 20, 2019 .