2004 United States presidential election in Alabama explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2004 United States presidential election in Alabama
Country:Alabama
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2000 United States presidential election in Alabama
Previous Year:2000
Next Election:2008 United States presidential election in Alabama
Next Year:2008
Election Date:November 2, 2004
Image1:File:George-W-Bush.jpeg
Nominee1:George W. Bush
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Home State1:Texas
Running Mate1:Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote1:9
Popular Vote1:1,176,394
Percentage1:62.46%
Nominee2:John Kerry
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State2:Massachusetts
Running Mate2:John Edwards
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:693,933
Percentage2:36.84%
Map Size:300px
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:George W. Bush
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2004 United States presidential election in Alabama took place on November 2, 2004. Voters chose nine representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Alabama was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 25.62% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this was a state Bush would win, or otherwise a red state. On election day, it trended Republican sharply, by a swing margin of 10.74% from the 2000 election. Bush won with over 60% of the vote, a first since 1984, and carried most of the counties and congressional districts. Historically, Alabama is a very reliable Republican state that a Democratic presidential nominee has not won since 1976, when Southern governor of Georgia Jimmy Carter ran and swept the Deep South.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[1]

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Bush won every single pre-election poll, and won each by a double-digit margin of victory. The final three polls averaged Bush leading 58% to 38%.[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,092,923.[3] Kerry raised $514,589.[4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall campaign.[5] [6]

Analysis

Bush easily won every poll taken in the state prior to the election. Kerry won a small section of counties in the middle of the state, including winning Alabama's 7th congressional district. In 2000, the state voted for Bush 56%–41% by fifteen points; this year it voted for him by 25 points.[2]

With the exception of Oklahoma in 2004, the state was also Bush's best performance in the South, with not even Texas, Bush's home state, voting as red as Alabama.

CNN exit polls showed that almost 70% of male voters voted for Bush. Also, 99% of registered Republicans (which made up 48% of the population) voted for Bush. Also, 43% of the state describe themselves as evangelical Christians, and 88% of them voted for Bush. 62% of the state approved of Bush, and 60% approved of the decision to go to war in Iraq. 82% of white men and 79% of white women voted for Bush. Finally, 70% of voters over the age of sixty voted for Bush. Alabama was racially divided: Alabama Whites voted 80%–19% for Bush while Blacks voted 91%-9% for Kerry.[7]

, Bush is the last Republican to carry Jefferson (home of Birmingham, the state's largest city), and majority-black Marengo counties in a presidential election.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Alabama[8]
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
RepublicanGeorge W. Bush (incumbent)1,176,39462.46%9
DemocraticJohn Kerry693,93336.84%0
IndependentRalph Nader6,7010.35%0
IndependentMichael Badnarik3,5290.19%0
IndependentMichael Peroutka1,9940.11%0
Write Ins8980.05%0
Totals1,883,449100.00%9
Voter turnout (voting-age population)55.5%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican		John Kerry
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
%%%%
Autauga15,19675.67%4,75823.69%1270.63%10,43851.98%20,081
Baldwin52,97176.42%15,59922.50%7501.09%37,37253.92%69,320
Barbour5,89954.74%4,83244.84%460.43%1,0679.90%10,777
Bibb5,47272.00%2,08927.49%390.51%3,38344.51%7,600
Blount17,38680.85%3,93818.31%1800.84%13,44862.54%21,504
Bullock1,49431.67%3,21068.05%130.28%-1,716-36.38%4,717
Butler4,97959.16%3,41340.55%240.29%1,56618.61%8,416
Calhoun29,81465.89%15,08333.33%3520.78%14,73132.56%45,249
Chambers7,62258.49%5,34741.03%630.48%2,27517.46%13,032
Cherokee5,92365.45%3,04033.59%860.96%2,88331.86%9,049
Chilton12,82976.85%3,77822.63%860.52%9,05154.22%16,693
Choctaw3,89753.92%3,30345.70%270.37%5948.22%7,227
Clarke6,73059.07%4,62740.61%370.32%2,10318.46%11,394
Clay4,62470.32%1,89328.79%590.90%2,73141.53%6,576
Cleburne4,37075.37%1,39123.99%370.63%2,97951.38%5,798
Coffee13,01973.90%4,48025.43%1170.66%8,53948.47%17,616
Colbert13,18855.10%10,59844.28%1490.62%2,59010.82%23,935
Conecuh3,27154.33%2,71945.16%310.51%5529.17%6,021
Coosa2,90558.09%2,05541.09%410.82%85017.00%5,001
Covington11,11976.02%3,42323.40%850.58%7,69652.62%14,627
Crenshaw3,77768.67%1,69830.87%250.46%2,07937.80%5,500
Cullman26,81876.21%8,04522.86%3280.93%18,77353.35%35,191
Dale13,62174.71%4,48424.60%1260.69%9,13750.11%18,231
Dallas7,33539.49%11,17560.17%630.34%-3,840-20.68%18,573
DeKalb16,90469.94%7,09229.34%1730.72%9,81240.60%24,169
Elmore22,05676.90%6,47122.56%1530.53%15,58554.34%28,680
Escambia8,51368.68%3,81430.77%680.55%4,69937.91%12,395
Etowah26,99963.26%15,32835.91%3530.83%11,67127.35%42,680
Fayette5,53469.16%2,40830.09%600.74%3,12639.07%8,002
Franklin7,69062.68%4,51436.79%650.53%3,17625.89%12,269
Geneva8,34279.30%2,11320.09%650.62%6,22959.21%10,520
Greene95820.18%3,76479.28%260.54%-2,806-59.10%4,748
Hale3,28141.30%4,63158.29%330.42%-1,350-16.99%7,945
Henry4,88166.31%2,45233.31%280.38%2,42933.00%7,361
Houston26,87474.24%9,14425.26%1830.50%17,73048.98%36,201
Jackson11,53456.76%8,63542.49%1520.75%2,89914.27%20,321
Jefferson158,68054.16%132,28645.15%2,0010.68%26,3949.01%292,967
Lamar4,89471.08%1,95628.41%350.51%2,93842.67%6,885
Lauderdale22,16159.72%14,62839.42%3180.86%7,53320.30%37,107
Lawrence7,73055.21%6,15543.96%1160.82%1,57511.25%14,001
Lee27,97262.70%16,22736.38%4110.92%11,74526.32%44,610
Limestone19,70267.77%9,12631.39%2450.84%10,57636.38%29,073
Lowndes1,78629.66%4,23370.30%20.03%-2,447-40.64%6,021
Macon1,57016.69%7,80082.92%370.39%-6,230-66.23%9,407
Madison77,17358.88%52,64440.17%1,2450.95%24,52918.71%131,062
Marengo5,25550.91%5,03748.80%300.29%2182.11%10,322
Marion8,98369.77%3,80829.58%840.65%5,17540.19%12,875
Marshall22,78372.35%8,45226.84%2560.81%14,33145.51%31,491
Mobile92,01458.69%63,73240.65%1,0250.65%28,28218.04%156,771
Monroe5,83161.16%3,66638.45%370.39%2,16522.71%9,534
Montgomery44,09749.19%45,16050.37%3930.44%-1,063-1.18%89,650
Morgan32,47769.09%14,13130.06%3990.85%18,34639.03%47,007
Perry1,73831.47%3,76768.21%180.33%-2,029-36.74%5,523
Pickens5,17056.61%3,91542.87%470.51%1,25513.74%9,132
Pike7,48362.97%4,33436.47%660.56%3,14926.50%11,883
Randolph6,12768.07%2,81731.30%570.63%3,31036.77%9,001
Russell8,33749.60%8,37549.82%970.57%-38-0.22%16,809
Shelby63,43580.39%14,85018.82%6210.79%48,58561.57%78,906
St. Clair23,50080.59%5,45618.71%2050.70%18,04461.88%29,161
Sumter1,88029.22%4,52770.37%260.40%-2,647-41.15%6,433
Talladega18,33161.31%11,37438.04%1930.65%6,95723.27%29,898
Tallapoosa12,39269.03%5,45130.36%1090.61%6,94138.67%17,952
Tuscaloosa42,87761.40%26,44737.87%5060.73%16,43023.53%69,830
Walker19,16767.57%9,01631.78%1840.65%10,15135.79%28,367
Washington5,06061.36%3,14538.14%420.51%1,91523.22%8,247
Wilcox1,83432.28%3,83867.55%100.18%-2,004-35.27%5,682
Winston8,13078.00%2,23621.45%570.55%5,89456.55%10,423
Totals1,176,39462.46%693,93336.84%13,1220.70%482,46125.62%1,883,449

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won 6 of 7 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
64%35%Jo Bonner
67%33%
58%41%Mike D. Rogers
71%28%Robert Aderholt
60%39%
78%22%Spencer Bachus
35%64%Artur Davis
[9]

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of Alabama cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Alabama is allocated 9 electors because it has 7 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 9 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 9 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney.[10] [11]

  1. Beth Chapman
  2. Marty Connors
  3. Martha Hosey
  4. Will Sellers
  5. Mike Hubbard
  6. Floyd Lawson
  7. Elbert Peters
  8. Bettye Fine Collins
  9. Martha Stokes

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Archived copy . dcpoliticalreport.com . 13 January 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm . 21 November 2010 . dead.
  2. Web site: Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Uselectionatlas.org. October 8, 2014.
  3. Web site: George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President. Campaignmoney.com. October 8, 2014.
  4. Web site: John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President. Campaignmoney.com. October 8, 2014.
  5. News: CNN.com Specials. Cnn.com. October 8, 2014.
  6. News: CNN.com Specials. Cnn.com. October 8, 2014.
  7. News: CNN.com Election 2004. Cnn.com. October 8, 2014.
  8. http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2004/2004pres.pdf
  9. Web site: Swing State Project. Swingstateproject.com. October 8, 2014.
  10. http://www.sos.state.al.us/downloads/election/2004/general/electors-bush.pdf
  11. Web site: Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. Uselectionatlas.org. October 8, 2014.

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