2004 United States presidential election in California explained

See main article: 2004 United States presidential election.

Election Name:2004 United States presidential election in California
Country:California
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2000 United States presidential election in California
Previous Year:2000
Next Election:2008 United States presidential election in California
Next Year:2008
Turnout:76.04% (of registered voters) 5.10 pp
57.03% (of eligible voters) 5.11 pp[1]
Election Date:November 2, 2004
Image1:John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee1:John Kerry
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Home State1:Massachusetts
Running Mate1:John Edwards
Electoral Vote1:55
Popular Vote1:6,745,485
Percentage1:54.31%
Nominee2:George W. Bush
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Home State2:Texas
Running Mate2:Dick Cheney
Electoral Vote2:0
Popular Vote2:5,509,826
Percentage2:44.36%
Map Size:400px
President
Before Election:George W. Bush
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:George W. Bush
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2004 United States presidential election in California took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 55 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

California was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 9.95% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. Republican presidential candidates have not taken California's electoral votes since Bush's father George H. W. Bush in his victory over Michael Dukakis in 1988. Bush would become the first and only Republican to win two terms in the White House without winning California at least once. With its 55 electoral votes, California was John Kerry's biggest electoral prize in 2004.

This is the only election since 1880 in which the Republican nominee won the nationwide popular vote without California, the only time since 1976 that it voted for the popular vote loser, and the only time ever that a Republican president has won re-election without winning California. This is also the only time since its statehood that a presidential candidate was elected to two terms to the presidency without winning the state either time.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time a Republican presidential candidate received more than 40% of the vote in California, where the margin of victory was in single digits, and where the Democratic Party failed to obtain at least 60% of the vote. Bush remains the last Republican candidate to win the following counties in a presidential election: Fresno, Merced, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Stanislaus, and Ventura, and also the last candidate of any party to win Butte and Stanislaus counties by a majority. This was also the only time since 1960 that California voted for a different presidential candidate than nearby New Mexico. It also remains the last presidential election that a Republican won more than a third of the vote in Los Angeles County and also the last time that the gap between the Republican and Democratic candidates was less than two million votes.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[2]

!Source!Ranking
D.C. Political Report
Associated Press
CNN
Cook Political Report
Newsweek
New York Times
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Washington Post
Washington Times
Zogby International
Washington Dispatch

Polling

Kerry led every single pre-election poll. The final 3 polls average Kerry leading at 52% to Bush at 43% to Nader at 2%.[3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $20,296,645, the second most money raised state for him. It accounted for 10.7% of all the money he raised in 2004.[4] Kerry raised $36,378,063, which is by far the most money raised for Kerry by any state. The money raised in California accounted for almost 20% of all money he raised in 2004.[5]

Advertising and visits

Neither Kerry nor Bush advertised or campaigned in the state during the fall election.[6] [7]

Analysis

California was once a Republican leaning swing state, supporting Republican candidates in every election from 1952 through 1988, except in 1964. However, since the 1990s, California has become a reliably Democratic state with a highly diverse ethnic population (mostly Latino) and liberal bastions such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles County. The last time the state was won by a Republican candidate was in 1988 by George H. W. Bush.

In 2004, the state did swing slightly Republican by a 1.9% margin from 2000 due to strong swings in heavily populated San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura, Kern, Fresno, Stanislaus, and San Joaquin counties, in all of which Bush increased his margin by substantially more than he did nationally, and all of which save San Diego, San Joaquin, and Ventura he won by double digits. Bush also won over a million votes in Los Angeles County, the most populous county in the United States; and he held Kerry to a 0.2% margin in Sacramento County (which Gore had won by 4.0%). Bush also benefited from strong support by Arnold Schwarzenegger, the state's Republican governor.[8] These factors likely contributed to California being closer than expected in 2004.

Nonetheless, this proved the first time the Democratic Party had won remote Alpine County since 1936 and only the third in that county's 140-year electoral history, and the first time the Democratic nominee carried neighboring Mono County since 1940, and only the seventh since that county was formed in 1861; Bush thus became the first ever Republican to win the White House without carrying the former county, and the first to do so without carrying the latter county since William McKinley in 1896. Kerry further countered Bush's improved performance in Southern California and the Central Valley with large swings towards the Democratic Party in Northern California and the Central Coast. He improved on Al Gore's vote share by over 5% in Alameda, Sonoma, Marin, Santa Barbara, and San Mateo Counties, and in the city of San Francisco; and by over 10% in Santa Cruz County; he also improved on Gore by nearly 5% in San Luis Obispo County, although he didn't succeed in flipping it. In San Francisco, he became the first presidential nominee of any party in at least over a century to crack 80%, as Bush's vote share dipped below not only what he had gotten in 2000, but below Dole's in 1996.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in California[9] [10]
PartyCandidateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
DemocraticJohn Forbes Kerry and John Reid Edwards6,745,48554.31%55
RepublicanGeorge Walker Bush and Richard Bruce Cheney (incumbent)5,509,82644.36%0
LibertarianMichael Badnarik50,1650.40%0
GreenDavid Cobb40,7710.33%0
Peace and FreedomLeonard Peltier27,6070.22%0
American IndependentMichael Peroutka26,6450.21%0
IndependentRalph Nader (write-in)20,7140.17%0
IndependentJohn Joseph Kennedy (write-in)820.00%0
IndependentJohn Parker (write-in)490.00%0
IndependentJames Alexander-Pace (write-in)80.00%0
IndependentAnthony Jabin (write-in)10.00%0
Invalid or blank votes169,510
Totals12,421,353100.00%55
Voter turnout (Voting Age voters)74.7%

By county

CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic		George W. Bush
Republican		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal votes cast
%%%%
Alameda422,58575.18%130,91123.29%8,5901.53%291,67451.89%562,090
Alpine37353.21%31144.37%172.43%628.84%701
Amador6,54136.56%11,10762.08%2431.36%-4,566-25.52%17,891
Butte42,44844.14%51,66253.73%2,0472.13%-9,214-9.59%96,157
Calaveras8,28637.09%13,60160.87%4562.04%-5,315-23.78%22,343
Colusa1,94731.58%4,14267.17%771.25%-2,195-35.59%6,166
Contra Costa257,25462.28%150,60836.46%5,1661.25%106,64625.82%413,028
Del Norte3,89241.31%5,35656.85%1731.84%-1,464-15.54%9,421
El Dorado32,24237.33%52,87861.23%1,2441.44%-20,636-23.90%86,364
Fresno103,15441.68%141,98857.38%2,3210.94%-38,834-15.70%247,463
Glenn2,99531.68%6,30866.72%1511.60%-3,313-35.04%9,454
Humboldt37,98857.66%25,71439.03%2,1843.31%12,27418.63%65,886
Imperial17,96452.41%15,89046.36%4201.23%2,0746.05%34,274
Inyo3,35038.88%5,09159.09%1752.03%-1,741-20.21%8,616
Kern68,60332.49%140,41766.49%2,1541.02%-71,814-34.00%211,174
Kings10,83333.74%21,00365.41%2740.85%-10,170-31.67%32,110
Lake13,14153.16%11,09344.88%4851.96%2,0488.28%24,719
Lassen3,15827.58%8,12670.97%1661.45%-4,968-43.39%11,450
Los Angeles1,907,73663.10%1,076,22535.60%39,3191.30%831,51127.50%3,023,280
Madera13,48134.70%24,87164.02%4981.28%-11,390-29.32%38,850
Marin99,07073.21%34,37825.40%1,8771.39%64,69247.81%135,325
Mariposa3,25137.55%5,21560.23%1922.22%-1,964-22.68%8,658
Mendocino24,38563.45%12,95533.71%1,0892.83%11,43029.74%38,429
Merced24,49142.26%32,77356.54%6961.20%-8,282-14.28%57,960
Modoc1,14925.72%3,23572.42%831.86%-2,086-46.70%4,467
Mono2,62849.23%2,62149.10%891.67%70.13%5,338
Monterey75,24160.36%47,83838.38%1,5741.26%27,40321.98%124,653
Napa33,66659.48%22,05938.97%8741.54%11,60720.51%56,599
Nevada24,22044.92%28,79053.39%9101.69%-4,570-8.47%53,920
Orange419,23938.98%641,83259.68%14,3281.33%-222,593-20.70%1,075,399
Placer55,57336.26%95,96962.61%1,7361.13%-40,396-26.35%153,278
Plumas4,12936.90%6,90561.71%1561.39%-2,776-24.81%11,190
Riverside228,80641.04%322,47357.83%6,3001.13%-93,667-16.79%557,579
Sacramento236,65749.52%235,53949.29%5,6701.19%1,1180.23%477,866
San Benito9,85152.61%8,69846.45%1760.94%1,1536.16%18,725
San Bernardino227,78943.53%289,30655.29%6,1811.18%-61,517-11.76%523,276
San Diego526,43746.33%596,03352.45%13,8811.22%-69,596-6.12%1,136,351
San Francisco296,77283.02%54,35515.21%6,3381.77%242,41767.81%357,465
San Joaquin87,01245.83%100,97853.18%1,8740.99%-13,966-7.35%189,864
San Luis Obispo58,74245.52%67,99552.69%2,3131.79%-9,253-7.17%129,050
San Mateo197,92269.48%83,31529.25%3,6201.27%114,60740.23%284,857
Santa Barbara90,31453.17%76,80645.22%2,7411.61%13,5087.95%169,861
Santa Clara386,10063.94%209,09434.63%8,6221.43%177,00629.31%603,816
Santa Cruz89,10272.98%30,35424.86%2,6282.15%58,74848.12%122,084
Shasta24,33931.31%52,24967.22%1,1431.47%-27,910-35.91%77,731
Sierra64633.16%1,24964.12%532.72%-603-30.96%1,948
Siskiyou7,88037.71%12,67360.64%3461.66%-4,793-22.93%20,899
Solano85,09657.17%62,30141.86%1,4400.97%22,79515.31%148,837
Sonoma148,26167.18%68,20430.90%4,2251.91%80,05736.28%220,690
Stanislaus58,82940.40%85,40758.65%1,3880.95%-26,578-18.25%145,624
Sutter9,60231.85%20,25467.19%2890.96%-10,652-35.34%30,145
Tehama7,50432.01%15,57266.42%3681.57%-8,068-34.41%23,444
Trinity2,78242.71%3,56054.66%1712.63%-778-11.95%6,513
Tulare32,49432.87%65,39966.15%9670.98%-32,905-33.28%98,860
Tuolumne10,10438.51%15,74560.02%3861.47%-5,641-21.51%26,235
Ventura148,85947.53%160,31451.19%4,0201.28%-11,455-3.66%313,193
Yolo42,88559.34%28,00538.75%1,3791.91%14,88020.59%72,269
Yuba5,68731.55%12,07667.00%2611.45%-6,389-35.45%18,024
Total 6,745,48554.30%5,509,82644.36%166,5481.34%1,235,6599.94%12,421,859

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Kerry won 31 of 53 congressional districts. Bush won 22 congressional districts, including two districts held by Democrats.[11]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
38%60%Mike Thompson
62%37%Wally Herger
58%41%Doug Ose
Dan Lungren
61%37%John Doolittle
38%61%Bob Matsui
28%70%Lynn Woolsey
32%67%George Miller
14%85%Nancy Pelosi
13%86%Barbara Lee
40%59%Ellen Tauscher
54%45%Richard Pombo
27%72%Tom Lantos
28%71%Pete Stark
30%68%Anna Eshoo
36%63%Mike Honda
36%63%Zoe Lofgren
33%66%Sam Farr
50%49%Dennis Cardoza
61%38%George Radanovich
48%51%Cal Dooley
Jim Costa
65%34%Devin Nunes
68%31%Bill Thomas
40%58%Lois Capps
56%43%Elton Gallegly
59%40%Howard McKeon
55%44%David Dreier
39%59%Brad Sherman
28%71%Howard Berman
37%61%Adam Schiff
33%66%Henry Waxman
22%77%Xavier Becerra
37%62%Hilda Solis
16%83%Diane Watson
30%69%Lucille Roybal-Allard
20%79%Maxine Waters
40%59%Jane Harman
25%74%Juanita Millender-McDonald
34%65%Grace Napolitano
40%59%Linda Sánchez
60%39%Ed Royce
62%37%Jerry Lewis
62%37%Gary Miller
41%58%Joe Baca
59%40%Ken Calvert
56%43%Mary Bono Mack
57%42%Dana Rohrabacher
50%49%Loretta Sanchez
58%40%Christopher Cox
John Campbell
63%36%Darrell Issa
55%44%Brian Bilbray
46%53%Bob Filner
61%38%Duncan Hunter
38%61%Susan Davis

Electors

See main article: List of 2004 United States presidential electors.

Technically the voters of California cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. California is allocated 55 electors because it has 53 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 53 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 53 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from California. All were pledged to and voted for John Kerry and John Edwards.[12]

  1. Robert H. Manley
  2. Barbara Schraeger
  3. Paul Johnson
  4. Gary Simmons
  5. Paul Batterson
  6. Diana Madoshi
  7. Kyriakos Tsakopoulos
  8. Donald Linker
  9. Paula Sandusky
  10. Adam Woo
  11. Chloe Drew
  12. Karl Sliferv
  13. Gary Prost
  14. Joseph Cotchett
  15. John Smith
  16. George Marcus
  17. Mark Hsu
  18. Adele Bihn
  19. Darrell Darling
  20. Amarjit Dhaliwal
  21. Rocco Davis
  22. Kenneth Costa
  23. Barbara Pyle
  24. David Johnson
  25. Andrew M. Siegel
  26. Michael Carpenter
  27. Lynda Von Husen
  28. Randy Monroe
  29. Lane M. Sherman
  30. Moreen Blum
  31. Yolanda Dyer
  32. Paul I. Goldenberg
  33. Lenore Wax
  34. Mitch O'Farrell
  35. Franklin A. Acevedo
  36. Gwen Moore
  37. Pedro Carillo
  38. Karen Walters
  39. Ted Lieu
  40. Valerie McDonald
  41. Marvin
  42. Douglas E. Hitchcock
  43. Barbara Kerr
  44. Salvador Sanchez
  45. Joe Baca Jr.
  46. Grant Gruber
  47. James T. Ewing
  48. Louise Giacoppe
  49. James G. Bohm
  50. Mark Lam
  51. Chuck Lower
  52. Susan Koehler
  53. Mary Salas
  54. Andrew Benjamin
  55. Margaret Lawrence

Notes and References

  1. Web site: HISTORICAL VOTER REGISTRATION AND PARTICIPATION IN STATEWIDE GENERAL ELECTIONS 1910-2018 . 30 June 2021.
  2. Web site: Archived copy . dcpoliticalreport.com . 14 January 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121204958/http://dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW . 21 November 2010 . dead.
  3. http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=1 Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  4. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04 George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President
  5. http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04 John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President
  6. News: CNN.com Specials. CNN .
  7. News: CNN.com Specials. CNN .
  8. Web site: Schwarzenegger's star power dazzles delegates. Loughlin. Sean. September 1, 2004. CNN.
  9. Web site: President . 2005-02-22 . 2008-07-09 . PDF . . https://web.archive.org/web/20130721215836/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2004-general/sov_2004_entire.pdf . 2013-07-21 . dead .
  10. Web site: Report of Registration as of October 18, 2004 . 2005-01-07 . 2013-01-16 . PDF . . https://web.archive.org/web/20080710095035/http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/sov/2004_general/sov_pref_pg5_6_ror.pdf . July 10, 2008 . dead . mdy-all .
  11. http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/ Swing State Project: Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008
  12. https://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/2004_certificates/ U. S. Electoral College 2004 Election - Main Page

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