2003 Japanese general election explained

Country:Japan
Type:parliamentary
Previous Election:2000 Japanese general election
Previous Year:2000
Election Date:November 9, 2003
Next Election:2005 Japanese general election
Next Year:2005
Previous Mps:Representatives elected in the Japanese general election, 2000
Elected Mps:Representatives elected in the Japanese general election, 2003
Seats For Election:All 480 seats in the House of Representatives of Japan
Majority Seats:241
Turnout:59.85% (2.64pp; Const. votes)
59.80% (2.64pp; PR votes)
1Blank:Constituency vote
2Blank:% and swing
3Blank:Regional vote
4Blank:% and swing
Image1:Junichiro Koizumi 20010426 (cropped 2).jpg
Leader1:Junichiro Koizumi
Party1:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)
Last Election1:233 seats
Seats1:237
Seat Change1: 4
1Data1:26,089,327
2Data1:43.85% (4.31pp)
3Data1:20,660,185
4Data1:34.96% (6.65pp)
Leader2:Naoto Kan
Party2:Democratic Party of Japan
Last Election2:127 seats
Seats2:177
Seat Change2: 50
1Data2:21,814,154
2Data2:36.66% (5.68pp)
3Data2:22,095,636
4Data2:37.39% (1.20pp)
Image3:
Leader3:Takenori Kanzaki
Party3:Komeito
Last Election3:31 seats
Seats3:34
Seat Change3: 3
1Data3:886,507
2Data3:1.49% (0.53pp)
3Data3:8,733,444
Image4:Kazuo Shii cropped.jpg
Leader4:Kazuo Shii
Party4:Japanese Communist Party
Last Election4:20 seats
Seats4:9
Seat Change4: 11
1Data4:4,837,953
2Data4:8.13% (3.95pp)
3Data4:4,586,172
4Data4:7.76% (3.47pp)
Image5:Takako Doi in Tokyo congressist election 2.jpg
Leader5:Takako Doi
Party5:Social Democratic Party (Japan)
Last Election5:19 seats
Seats5:6
Seat Change5: 13
1Data5:1,708,672
2Data5:2.87% (0.93pp)
3Data5:3,027,390
4Data5:5.12% (4.24pp)
Prime Minister
Before Party:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)
After Party:Liberal Democratic Party (Japan)

General elections were held in Japan on November 9, 2003. Incumbent Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and the Liberal Democratic Party won the most seats in the House of Representatives but failed to secure a majority. The main opposition Democratic Party made considerable gains, winning 177 of the 480 seats in the House of Representatives, its largest share ever. Other traditional parties like the Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party lost substantial numbers of seats, marking the start of a newly consolidated two-party system in Japanese politics, which would end in 2012 with the emergence of Japan Restoration Party.

Background

On October 11, 2003, following his re-election as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party on September 20, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi dissolved the House of Representatives of Japan's Diet. This action was in accordance with Article 7 of the Constitution of Japan, which grants the Prime Minister the authority to dissolve the lower house after consulting the Emperor.

This election marked the first since Koizumi assumed the role of Prime Minister in April 2001. The primary contenders were the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic Party (DPJ). The LDP continued to enjoy robust support in rural regions and among the elderly, largely due to substantial agricultural subsidies, while the DPJ was more popular with younger voters and in urban centers. Nonetheless, the LDP was favored due to the disproportionate influence of less populated rural districts within Japan's electoral framework.

Key issues addressed by the candidates included the persistent economic recession, known as the Lost Decades; reforms to the public pension system; the level of Japan's involvement in Iraq in support of the U.S.; relations with North Korea; and the privatization of Japan Post Holdings and highways in the Tokyo area.

The preceding general election for the Lower House occurred in June 2000 under the leadership of Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori.

Results

See main article: Results of the 2003 Japanese general election. National newspapers have reported that the recent election was more favorable to the Democratic Party (DPJ) than to the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The DPJ secured a plurality of votes and added 40 seats, becoming the largest opposition party with 177 seats in the lower house. Within the ruling coalition, only New Kōmeitō saw an increase, raising its membership from 31 to 34. Despite Prime Minister Koizumi's high approval ratings, the LDP did not gain additional seats, leading some analysts to view Koizumi as a weakened Prime Minister. However, others note that several non-partisan members were actually aligned with the LDP, including Kato Koichi, suggesting the LDP effectively maintained its seat count.

The LDP was successful in rural regions, whereas the DPJ excelled in urban centers. Voter turnout was 59.86%, marking it the second-lowest since 1945. The new house members had an average age of 51.03 years, which is 3.2 years younger than the previous election's average. A majority of the new members, 302, were born post-1945. Post-election, the number of women in the lower house fell to 34 from the previous 35.

Early poll data and exit polls underscored the impact of swing voters, who comprised 18% of the electorate. The Asahi Shimbun reported that over half of these voters chose the DPJ. Exit polls initially produced varied forecasts, with one predicting the DPJ would secure as many as 230 seats, over 50 more than the actual outcome.

The Liberal Democratic Party did not secure a majority on its own, necessitating the continuation of its coalition with New Kōmeitō and the New Conservative Party.

By prefecture

PrefectureTotal
seats
Seats won
LDPDPJNKPNCPSDPAILLInd.
Aichi153102
Akita3111
Aomori44
Chiba1358
Ehime44
Fukui33
Fukuoka11551
Fukushima5311
Gifu55
Gunma55
Hiroshima761
Hokkaido1257
Hyōgo1253211
Ibaraki761
Ishikawa321
Iwate413
Kagawa33
Kagoshima541
Kanagawa18981
Kōchi33
Kumamoto5311
Kyoto633
Mie532
Miyagi633
Miyazaki312
Nagano532
Nagasaki431
Nara422
Niigata6231
Ōita321
Okayama55
Okinawa4211
Osaka19694
Saga321
Saitama1578
Shiga413
Shimane22
Shizuoka8431
Tochigi55
Tokushima321
Tokyo2512121
Tottori211
Toyama33
Wakayama321
Yamagata321
Yamaguchi431
Yamanashi321
Total3001681059411111

By PR block

PR blockTotal
seats
Seats won
DPJLDPNKPJCPSDP
Chūgoku11452
Hokkaido8431
Hokuriku–Shinetsu 11551
Kinki29119531
Kyushu2178312
Northern Kanto208831
Shikoku6231
Southern Kanto2298311
Tohoku1456111
Tokai219831
Tokyo178621
Total18072692595

References

Analysis of the general election (in Japanese)

External links