2003 Catalan regional election explained

Election Name:	2003 Catalan regional election
Country:	Catalonia
Type:	parliamentary
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	1999 Catalan regional election
Previous Year:	1999
Next Election:	2006 Catalan regional election
Next Year:	2006
Seats For Election:	All 135 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia
Majority Seats:	68
Opinion Polls:	Opinion polls
Registered:	5,307,837 0.3%
Turnout:	3,319,276 (62.5%) 3.3 pp
Election Date:	16 November 2003
Leader1:	Artur Mas
Party1:	Convergence and Union
Leader Since1:	7 January 2002
Leaders Seat1:	Barcelona
Last Election1:	56 seats, 37.7%
Seats1:	46
Seat Change1:	10
Popular Vote1:	1,024,425
Percentage1:	30.9%
Swing1:	6.8 pp
Leader2:	Pasqual Maragall
Party2:	PSC–CpC
Leader Since2:	6 March 1999
Leaders Seat2:	Barcelona
Last Election2:	52 seats, 37.9%
Seats2:	42
Seat Change2:	10
Popular Vote2:	1,031,454
Percentage2:	31.2%
Swing2:	6.7 pp
Leader3:	Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira
Party3:	Republican Left of Catalonia
Leader Since3:	25 November 1996
Leaders Seat3:	Barcelona
Last Election3:	12 seats, 8.7%
Seats3:	23
Seat Change3:	11
Popular Vote3:	544,324
Percentage3:	16.4%
Swing3:	7.7 pp
Leader4:	Josep Piqué
Party4:	People's Party of Catalonia
Leader Since4:	4 September 2003
Leaders Seat4:	Barcelona
Last Election4:	12 seats, 9.5%
Seats4:	15
Seat Change4:	3
Popular Vote4:	393,499
Percentage4:	11.9%
Swing4:	2.4 pp
Leader5:	Joan Saura
Party5:	ICV–EA
Leader Since5:	26 November 2000
Leaders Seat5:	Barcelona
Last Election5:	3 seats, 3.9%
Seats5:	9
Seat Change5:	6
Popular Vote5:	241,163
Percentage5:	7.3%
Swing5:	3.4 pp
Map Size:	350px
President
Before Election:	Jordi Pujol
Before Party:	Convergence and Union
After Election:	Pasqual Maragall
After Party:	Socialists' Party of Catalonia

The 2003 Catalan regional election was held on Sunday, 16 November 2003, to elect the 7th Parliament of the autonomous community of Catalonia. All 135 seats in the Parliament were up for election.

This election marked a change for all Catalan political parties due to Catalan president Jordi Pujol's decision not to seek a seventh term in office and to retire from active politics. The election results were a great disappointment for Pasqual Maragall's Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC), which again saw Convergence and Union (CiU) winning a plurality of seats despite them winning the most votes by a margin of just 0.3%. Opinion polls earlier in the year had predicted a much larger victory for Maragall, but his lead over CiU had begun to narrow as the election grew nearer. Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) was perceived as the true victor of the election, doubling its 1999 figures and scoring its best result in its recent history up to that point, both in terms of seats (23 of 135) and votes (16.4%), up from 11 seats and 8.7%.

As Pujol's successor Artur Mas did not win a majority large enough to renew his party pact with the People's Party (PP), which had kept Pujol in power since 1995, an alliance between the PSC, ERC and ICV–EUiA resulted in a Catalan "tripartite" government. Thus, despite losing 10 seats and 150,000 votes compared to the 1999 election, Maragall became the first centre-left president of the Government of Catalonia, ending with 23 uninterrupted years of CiU rule.

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Catalonia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Catalonia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Catalan Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Transitory Provision Fourth of the Statute established a specific electoral procedure for elections to the Parliament of Catalonia, of application for as long as a regional electoral law was not approved, to be supplemented by the provisions within the national electoral law. Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Catalonia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 135 members of the Parliament of Catalonia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Barcelona, Girona, Lleida and Tarragona, with each being allocated a fixed number of seats:^[1]

Seats	Constituencies
85	Barcelona
18	Tarragona
17	Girona
15	Lleida

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.^[2]

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Catalonia expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The regional president was required to call an election fifteen days prior to the date of expiry of parliament, with election day taking place within sixty days after the call. The previous election was held on 17 October 1999, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 17 October 2003. The election was required to be called no later than 2 October 2003, with it taking place on the sixtieth day from the call, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Monday, 1 December 2003.^[1]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the Parliament of Catalonia and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since a previous one under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional President within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Parliament was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.^{[3] [4]}

Background

In the 1999 election, and as a result of the Socialists' Party of Catalonia (PSC)'s growth, the Catalan nationalist Convergence and Union (CiU) had lost the vote share in a regional election for the first time ever, but clung on to retain the largest amount of seats due to the disproportionate allocation of seats in Girona, Lleida and Tarragona compared to Barcelona. Through to the support of the People's Party (PP), Jordi Pujol had been able to be re-elected to a sixth term in office with a slim majority of 68 to the 67 seats commanded by the left-from-centre opposition.

Despite Pujol's personal approval ratings remaining high until the end of his term, speculation on his possible retirement (which he confirmed on 1 April 2001),^[5] internal disputes between Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC) and Democratic Union of Catalonia (UDC) over the future of the alliance^[6] —which resulted in CiU being turned into a full-fledged party federation in order to ensure its continuity in the post-Pujol era^[7] —and a desire for change after 23 years in power had resulted in CiU trailing the PSC in opinion polls for the entire legislature, with a lead that was nearly into the double digits by mid-to-late 2002. From mid-2003, however, the Socialist lead had begun to narrow to the point that chances for a possible reenactment of the 1999 tight race remained high. The retirement of Pujol as CiU candidate paved the way for Artur Mas, the then chief minister (Catalan; Valencian: Conseller en cap), to replace him as the culmination of a long successory process.^[8]

Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) had been in an almost continuous growth since the 1988 election, becoming a political force able to pierce through the dominant two-party system in Catalonia. Initiative for Catalonia Greens (ICV) and United and Alternative Left (EUiA) had run separately in the previous election, but ahead of the 2003 election joined within the ICV–EA coalition.

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Catalonia was officially dissolved on 23 September 2003, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Journal of the Government of Catalonia.^[9] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of dissolution.^{[10] [11] [12]}

Parliamentary composition in September 2003^{[13] [14]}

Groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Convergence and Union's Parliamentary Group		CDC	41	56
			UDC	15
	Socialists–Citizens for Change Parliamentary Group		PSC	35	50
			CpC	15
	People's Parliamentary Group		PP	12	12
	Republican Left of Catalonia's Parliamentary Group		ERC	12	12
	Initiative for Catalonia–Greens's Parliamentary Group		ICV	5	5

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^[15]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy		Parties and alliances	Leading candidate		Ideology	Previous result
						Votes (%)	Seats
	CiU			Artur Mas	Catalan nationalism Centrism	37.70%			^[16]
	PSC–CpC			Pasqual Maragall	Social democracy	37.85%			^[17]
	PP			Josep Piqué	Conservatism Christian democracy	9.51%			^[18] ^[19] ^[20]
	ERC			Josep-Lluís Carod-Rovira	Catalan independence Left-wing nationalism Social democracy	8.67%
	ICV–EA			Joan Saura	Regionalism Eco-socialism Green politics	3.93%			^[21]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 68 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout							Lead
2003 regional election	16 Nov 2003		62.5		31.2	30.9	11.9	16.4	7.3		0.3
Ipsos–Eco/CCRTV^[22]	16 Nov 2003	73,696	?	30.9		31.7	11.2	16.8	7.2		0.8
Eco Consulting/CCRTV^[23]	16 Nov 2003	?	?		32.3	29.4	10.3	17.6	7.6		2.9
Gallup/RTVE	16 Nov 2003	?	?		35.1	29.4	9.6	15.7	8.0		5.7
Sigma Dos/Antena 3	16 Nov 2003	?	?		34.3	30.6	11.3	15.2	6.7		3.7
Celeste-Tel/La Razón	10 Nov 2003	601	?		36.3	34.3	10.7	11.9	5.3		2.0
DEP/Dossier Econòmic	8 Nov 2003	1,200	?	34.7		35.8	9.7	13.8	4.6		1.1
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[24]	3–6 Nov 2003	1,200	?		36.2	33.1	9.5	13.0	6.9		3.1
Celeste-Tel/La Razón	5 Nov 2003	601	?		37.1	31.5	11.1	13.1	5.5		5.6
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^[25]	3–5 Nov 2003	1,600	?		35.0	32.2	12.4	12.8	5.9		2.8
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[26]	1–5 Nov 2003	2,025	?		36.5	30.9	10.0	13.7	6.9		5.6
Opina/El País^[27] ^[28]	31 Oct–2 Nov 2003	2,100	?		34.5	32.5	10.5	12.5	6.5		2.0
Line Staff/CiU^[29]	31 Oct 2003	2,100	?		34.5	34.0	10.0	12.5	6.5		0.5
Infortécnica^[30]	7–31 Oct 2003	2,012	59.0	32.1		39.4	7.5	14.6	6.5		7.3
TNS Demoscopia/ABC^[31]	20–27 Oct 2003	2,000	?		36.1	33.2	10.5	12.0	7.5		2.9
Opina/Cadena SER^[32] ^[33] ^[34]	26 Oct 2003	1,800	?		35.5	30.0	12.0	13.0	7.0		5.5
CIS^[35] ^[36] ^[37]	13–26 Oct 2003	3,571	71.8		34.4	32.4	11.1	12.6	7.4		2.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[38]	29 Sep–1 Oct 2003	803	?		37.0	33.0	8.9	13.3	5.7		4.0
Feedback/CiU^[39] ^[40] ^[41]	15–24 Sep 2003	2,507	?		35.4	34.0	9.9	13.0	6.1		1.4
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[42]	10–11 Sep 2003	812	?		36.4	33.7	7.8	15.1	5.9		2.7
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[43]	7–10 Jul 2003	1,000	?		36.3	33.7	7.8	14.5	5.9		2.6
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[44]	25–27 Jun 2003	?	?		38.8	31.6	9.5	14.0	4.2		7.2
La Vanguardia^[45]	22 Jun 2003	?	61.3		35.9	31.1	9.5	10.2	4.8	–	4.8
2003 local elections	25 May 2003		61.5		34.1	24.4	11.1	12.8	10.5		9.7
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[46]	31 Mar–1 Apr 2003	?	?		41.0	32.1	7.0	13.4	4.4		8.9
Opina/ERC^[47] ^[48]	5–7 Mar 2003	1,800	?		38.0	33.0	9.0	14.0	5.0		5.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[49]	13–15 Jan 2003	?	?		40.5	32.6	8.3	12.4	4.0		7.9
Noxa/La Vanguardia^[50]	7–11 Jan 2003	1,500	?		43.0	34.7	7.8	10.7	2.2		8.3
CES/CiU^[51] ^[52] ^[53]	7–10 Jan 2003	2,500	?		37.3	35.7	9.8	11.9	2.4	1.1	1.6
Vox Pública/PSC^[54] ^[55] ^[56]	16–18 Dec 2002	805	?		39.5– 40.5	31.0– 32.0	8.5– 9.5	12.0– 13.0	5.0– 6.0		8.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[57]	7–9 Oct 2002	?	?		40.5	32.4	8.8	12.4	2.9	1.0	8.1
CIS^[58] ^[59] ^[60] ^[61]	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	922	72.6	33.6		35.2	9.6	11.3	6.5	–	1.6
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[62]	25–27 Jun 2002	?	?		40.5	33.0	8.0	12.0	3.3	1.0	7.5
Vox Pública/PSC^[63] ^[64]	10–12 Jun 2002	605	?		40.0– 41.0	32.5– 33.5	7.0– 8.0	12.5– 13.5	2.5– 3.5	1.0– 2.0	7.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[65]	15–17 Apr 2002	800	?		40.2	34.1	8.0	10.3	3.2	1.4	6.1
Opina/CDC^[66] ^[67]	11–16 Apr 2002	2,400	?	35.0		36.0	10.2	11.5	3.0	–	1.0
La Vanguardia^[68]	8 Apr 2002	?	?		40.5	33.0	9.5	11.0	2.5	–	7.5
Vox Pública/PSC^[69]	11–14 Mar 2002	?	?		39.5– 40.5	32.5– 33.5	9.0– 10.0	10.5– 11.5	2.5– 3.5	1.0– 2.0	7.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[70]	4–5 Feb 2002	?	?		39.4	35.6	8.7	10.3	2.6	1.2	3.8
UDC^[71]	28 Dec 2001	1,200	?		37.3	37.2	–	–	–	–	0.1
Vox Pública/PSC^[72]	20–22 Nov 2001	602	?		38.5– 39.5	34.5– 35.5	8.5– 9.5	9.0– 10.0	2.0– 3.0	1.0– 2.0	4.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[73]	23–25 Oct 2001	?	?		36.8	36.1	8.4	12.3	2.8	1.4	0.7
Vox Pública/PSC^[74] ^[75] ^[76]	22 Oct 2001	?	?		39.0– 40.0	35.5– 36.5	7.0– 8.0	10.0– 11.0	2.0– 3.0	1.0– 2.0	3.5
La Vanguardia^[77] ^[78] ^[79] ^[80] ^[81]	13–17 Aug 2001	?	?		40.0	32.8	10.0	11.0	2.5	–	7.2
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[82]	28–30 Jun 2001	?	?		37.2	36.8	8.3	11.0	3.3	1.5	0.4
Vox Pública/PSC^[83] ^[84]	12–14 Jun 2001	600	?		38.5– 39.5	35.0– 36.0	8.0– 8.5	10.0– 11.0	2.5– 3.5	1.0– 1.5	3.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[85]	19–20 Apr 2001	?	?		39.2	35.2	9.5	9.6	2.6	1.0	4.0
CIS^[86] ^[87] ^[88] ^[89]	3–26 Mar 2001	2,778	85.2		37.7	34.6	10.3	10.8	3.9	1.1	3.1
Vox Pública/PSC^[90] ^[91] ^[92]	28 Feb–2 Mar 2001	600	?		39.0– 40.0	36.5– 37.5	9.0– 9.5	7.5– 8.5	2.5– 3.5	–	2.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[93]	1–2 Feb 2001	804	?		37.5	36.6	9.5	10.5	2.8	0.8	0.9
Opina/La Vanguardia^[94] ^[95]	6 Nov 2000	800	?		37.0	36.0	10.5	9.5	2.5	–	1.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico^[96]	1–2 Nov 2000	800	?	37.6		37.7	9.0	9.5	1.6	1.4	0.1
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000		64.0		34.1	28.8	22.8	5.6	3.5	2.2	5.3
1999 regional election	17 Oct 1999		59.2		37.9	37.7	9.5	8.7	2.5	1.4	0.2

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size									Lead
2003 regional election	16 Nov 2003			19.7	19.6	7.5	10.4	4.6			36.6	0.1
Vox Pública/El Periódico	1–5 Nov 2003	2,025		28.0	23.4	6.3	12.7	6.0		17.7	3.2	4.6
Infortécnica	7–31 Oct 2003	2,012	15.4		18.9	3.6	7.0	3.1		41.0	10.3	3.5
CIS	13–26 Oct 2003	3,571	21.2		25.4	6.1	10.2	6.1		18.2	10.9	4.2
Vox Pública/El Periódico	29 Sep–1 Oct 2003	803	25.8		29.8	5.6	13.6	4.0		13.7	4.2	4.0
Vox Pública/El Periódico	25–27 Jun 2003	?		30.0	25.7	6.1	14.1	4.9		11.8	5.2	4.3
Vox Pública/El Periódico	31 Mar–1 Apr 2003	?		26.8	21.3	4.1	11.2	3.6		23.4	6.0	5.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico	13–15 Jan 2003	?		30.3	22.9	4.6	10.0	3.4	1.0	17.6	7.0	7.4
Vox Pública/El Periódico	7–9 Oct 2002	?		28.9	23.4	5.3	9.7	2.6	1.1	18.0	8.6	5.5
CIS	9 Sep–9 Oct 2002	922	21.8		23.9	5.4	9.0	5.1	0.7	19.6	12.5	2.1
Vox Pública/El Periódico	25–27 Jun 2002	?		31.7	23.6	4.9	9.2	3.9	0.7	15.3	8.7	8.1
Vox Pública/El Periódico	4–5 Feb 2002	?	27.3		28.8	4.2	6.2	2.9	0.5	17.9	8.8	1.5
Vox Pública/El Periódico	23–25 Oct 2001	?	20.4		28.0	5.2	9.8	2.8	0.9	18.5	10.7	7.6
Vox Pública/El Periódico	28–30 Jun 2001	?	22.4		30.2	5.1	7.5	3.2	1.4	18.1	8.5	7.8
Vox Pública/El Periódico	19–20 Apr 2001	?		28.5	23.6	6.5	6.6	2.2	0.6	21.0	7.8	4.9
CIS	3–26 Mar 2001	2,778	26.1		27.7	5.4	9.4	3.1	0.5	16.0	10.6	1.6
2000 general election	12 Mar 2000			22.0	18.5	14.7	3.6	2.3	1.4		36.6	3.5
1999 regional election	17 Oct 1999			22.3	22.2	5.6	5.1	1.5	0.8		39.4	0.1

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None		Lead
Noxa/La Vanguardia	3–6 Nov 2003	1,200	30.0		33.0	6.0	12.0	5.0	4.0	10.0	3.0
Opina/El País	31 Oct–2 Nov 2003	2,100		30.5	25.5	7.5	8.7	3.2	–	24.7	5.0
Opina/Cadena SER	26 Oct 2003	1,800		30.3	24.7	7.6	9.0	5.1	–	23.4	5.6
CIS	13–26 Oct 2003	3,571	25.1		29.8	7.0	11.9	6.3	0.6	19.3	4.7
Noxa/La Vanguardia	10–11 Sep 2003	812		35.0	31.0	6.0	14.0	5.0	4.0	5.0	4.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	7–10 Jul 2003	1,000	30.0		37.0	5.0	13.0	5.0	3.0	7.0	7.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	7–11 Jan 2003	1,500		40.0	31.0	5.0	9.0	2.0	6.0	8.0	9.0
CIS	3–26 Mar 2001	2,778	31.1		32.8	5.8	9.9	3.1	0.9	16.3	1.7

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size						Other/ None		Lead
Noxa/La Vanguardia	3–6 Nov 2003	1,200	33.0		45.0	4.0	1.0	–	1.0	17.0	12.0
Opina/El País	31 Oct–2 Nov 2003	2,100	31.1		34.0	1.9	0.7	0.1	–	32.3	2.9
Infortécnica	7–31 Oct 2003	2,012	20.5		33.9	2.1	–	–	1.3	42.3	13.4
Opina/Cadena SER	26 Oct 2003	1,800	32.1		36.3	4.2	0.7	0.2	–	26.5	4.2
CIS	13–26 Oct 2003	3,571	26.4		45.9	4.3	0.7	0.2	0.1	22.5	19.5
Noxa/La Vanguardia	10–11 Sep 2003	812	35.0		47.0	3.0	1.0	–	1.0	13.0	12.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	7–10 Jul 2003	1,000	38.0		40.0	3.0	1.0	–	1.0	17.0	2.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	7–11 Jan 2003	1,500	32.0		43.0	2.0	–	–	1.0	22.0	11.0

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

All candidates

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size									Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
Opina/El País	31 Oct–2 Nov 2003	2,100		30.9	–	24.3	–	–	7.3	8.8	2.9	7.0	18.9	6.6
CIS	13–26 Oct 2003	3,571		29.4	–	26.2	–	–	6.7	11.2	4.4	1.8	20.3	3.2
Vox Pública/PSC	12–14 Jun 2001	600		42.5– 43.5	–	28.0– 30.0	–	–	8.5– 9.0	11.0– 12.0	4.5– 5.5	2.0– 3.0	–	13.5– 14.5
CIS	3–26 Mar 2001	2,778		30.8	22.0	7.0	5.1	1.2	1.0	5.8	0.8	8.8	17.3	8.8
Vox Pública/PSC	28 Feb–2 Mar 2001	600		45.0– 46.0	–	24.5– 25.5	–	–	10.5– 11.5	9.5– 10.5	5.5– 6.5	2.0– 3.0	–	20.5

Maragall vs. Mas

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
Noxa/La Vanguardia	3–6 Nov 2003	1,200		41.0	40.0	10.0	9.0	1.0
Opina/El País	31 Oct–2 Nov 2003	2,100		39.5	34.2	11.3	15.0	5.3
Noxa/La Vanguardia	10–11 Sep 2003	812		45.0	38.0	12.0	5.0	7.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	7–10 Jul 2003	1,000		43.0	40.0	11.0	6.0	3.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	7–11 Jan 2003	1,500		50.0	31.0	13.0	6.0	19.0
Vox Pública/PSC	12–14 Jun 2001	600		60.3	26.4	13.3		33.9
Vox Pública/PSC	28 Feb–2 Mar 2001	600		60.4	21.1	18.5		39.3
Opina/La Vanguardia	6 Nov 2000	800		40.3	24.0	5.6	30.1	16.3

Maragall vs. Pujol

Maragall vs. Duran i Lleida

Maragall vs. Mas vs. Piqué

Maragall vs. Pujol vs. Piqué

Maragall vs. Duran i Lleida vs. Piqué

Predicted President

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood for each leader to become president of the Government of Catalonia.

All candidates

Maragall vs. Mas

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			Other/ None/ Not care		Lead
Noxa/La Vanguardia	3–6 Nov 2003	1,200	43.0		44.0	1.0	12.0	1.0
Opina/El País	31 Oct–2 Nov 2003	2,100	35.1		37.3	3.3	24.3	2.2
Noxa/La Vanguardia	10–11 Sep 2003	812	46.0		48.0	1.0	5.0	2.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	7–10 Jul 2003	1,000		50.0	41.0	1.0	8.0	9.0
Noxa/La Vanguardia	7–11 Jan 2003	1,500		49.0	40.0	3.0	8.0	9.0
Vox Pública/PSC	12–14 Jun 2001	600		53.0	27.9	19.1		25.1
Opina/La Vanguardia	6 Nov 2000	800		39.3	21.3	3.3	36.1	18.0

Maragall vs. Pujol

Maragall vs. Duran i Lleida

Maragall vs. Mas vs. Piqué

Maragall vs. Pujol vs. Piqué

Maragall vs. Duran i Lleida vs. Piqué

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 16 November 2003 Parliament of Catalonia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Socialists' Party of Catalonia–Citizens for Change (PSC–CpC)	1,031,454	31.16	–6.69	42	–10
	Convergence and Union (CiU)	1,024,425	30.94	–6.76	46	–10
	Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC)	544,324	16.44	+7.77	23	+11
	People's Party (PP)	393,499	11.89	+2.38	15	+3
	Initiative for Catalonia Greens–Alternative Left (ICV–EA)^1	241,163	7.28	+3.35	9	+6
	The Greens–The Ecologist Alternative (EV–AE)	18,470	0.56	New	0	±0
	Platform for Catalonia (PxC)	4,892	0.15	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Socialist Workers' Party (POSI)	4,226	0.13	+0.04	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Catalan People (PCPC)	2,580	0.08	New	0	±0
	Unsubmissive Seats (Ei)	2,220	0.07	New	0	±0
	Catalan State (EC)	1,890	0.06	±0.00	0	±0
	The Greens–Green Alternative (EV–AV)	1,886	0.06	–0.20	0	±0
	Republican Left–Left Republican Party (IR–PRE)	1,714	0.05	New	0	±0
	Humanist Party of Catalonia (PHC)	1,647	0.05	+0.01	0	±0
	Another Democracy is Possible (UADeP)	1,386	0.04	New	0	±0
	Democratic and Social Centre (CDS)	1,073	0.03	–0.01	0	±0
	Caló Nationalist Party (PNCA)	812	0.02	New	0	±0
	Republican Social Movement (MSR)	804	0.02	New	0	±0
	Internationalist Struggle (LI (LIT–CI))	802	0.02	±0.00	0	±0
	Spaniards Under Separatism (EBS)	603	0.02	New	0	±0
	Citizens for Blank Votes (CenB)	401	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		30,212	0.91	–0.02
Total		3,310,483			135	±0
Valid votes		3,310,483	99.74	–0.01
Invalid votes		8,793	0.26	+0.01
Votes cast / turnout		3,319,276	62.54	+3.34
Abstentions		1,988,561	37.46	–3.34
Registered voters		5,307,837
Sources^[97]

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSC–CpC		CiU		ERC		PP		ICV–EA
	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S
Barcelona	33.2	29	28.8	25	15.2	13	12.6	11	8.0	7
Girona	23.7	4	38.7	7	21.9	4	8.1	1	5.3	1
Lleida	22.5	4	41.4	7	19.9	3	9.7	1	4.4	–
Tarragona	28.2	5	33.8	7	19.0	3	11.8	2	5.2	1
Total	31.2	42	30.9	46	16.4	23	11.9	15	7.3	9
Sources

Aftermath

Investiture Pasqual Maragall (PSC)
Ballot →		16 December 2003
Required majority →		68 out of 135
	Abstentions
	Absentees
Sources

References

Opinion poll sources

Other

Notes and References

1. Ley Orgánica 4/1979, de 18 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía de Cataluña . Statute of Autonomy of Catalonia of 1979 . Organic Law . 4/1979 . 18 December 1979 . 22 December 1979 . . 306 . Jefatura del Estado [Head of State] . Spain . es . BOE-A-1979-30178 .
2. Web site: Gallagher . Michael . 30 July 2012 . Effective threshold in electoral systems . Trinity College, Dublin . https://web.archive.org/web/20170730092518/http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php . 22 July 2017. 2017-07-30 .
3. Ley 3/1982, de 23 de marzo, del Parlamento, del Presidente y del Consejo Ejecutivo de la Generalidad . Law . 3/1982 . es . 23 March 1982 . 4 May 1982 . . 106 . Catalonia . BOE-A-1982-10330 .
4. Ley 8/1985, de 24 de mayo, de modificación de la Ley 3/1982, de 25 de marzo, del Parlamento, del Presidente y del Consejo Ejecutivo de la Generalidad de Cataluña . Law . 8/1985 . 2 August 1985 . . 184 . Catalonia . es . 24 May 1985 . BOE-A-1985-16307 .
5. News: 1 April 2001 . Jordi Pujol anuncia que no volverá a concurrir a las elecciones . es . El País . Barcelona . 14 July 2020.
6. News: Garriga . Josep . 30 March 2001 . Duran reclama la secretaría general de CiU para aceptar a Mas como sucesor de Pujol . es . El País . Barcelona . 14 July 2020.
7. News: Quadrado . Susana . 3 December 2001 . CDC y Unió firman la federación que sella la paz para ganar las próximas elecciones . es . La Vanguardia . Barcelona . 14 July 2020.
8. News: EFE . 14 January 2001 . Pujol anuncia que Mas será el consejero jefe de la Generalitat . es . El Mundo . L'Hospitalet (Barcelona) . 14 July 2020.
9. Boletín Oficial del Estado . 228 . 23 September 2003 . 31963 . 0212-033X . Decreto 208/2003, de 22 de septiembre, de convocatoria de elecciones al Parlamento de Cataluña y de su disolución . es.
10. Web site: Eleccions al Parlament de Catalunya (1980 - 2021) . es . Historia Electoral.com . 19 May 2021.
11. Web site: Parlament de Catalunya: grups parlamentaris (1980 - ...) . es . Historia Electoral.com . 19 May 2021.
12. Web site: Diputats del Parlament de Catalunya (1932 - 2021) . es . Historia Electoral.com . 19 May 2021.
13. Web site: VI legislatura . ca . . 14 July 2020.
14. Matas Dalmases . Jordi . Reniu Vilamala . Josep Maria . October 2003 . La política de las coaliciones en Cataluña . Revista Española de Ciencia Política . 9 . 89 . https://web.archive.org/web/20150928215848/http://www.ub.edu/grepa/coalicions/Reniu_Matas_RECP_2003.pdf . 14 July 2020. 2015-09-28 .
15. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General . es . 1985-06-19 . Organic Law . 5/1985 . 1985-06-20 . . 147 . Jefatura del Estado [Head of State] . Spain . BOE-A-1985-11672 .
16. News: Company . Enric . 8 January 2002 . CiU hace oficial la candidatura de Mas para la presidencia de la Generalitat . es . El País . Barcelona . 14 July 2020.
17. News: 30 June 2003 . Maragall: "A Zapatero le va a tocar cambiar más cosas de las que creía" . es . Cadena SER . Madrid . 14 July 2020.
18. News: Europa Press . 26 June 2003 . Piqué será proclamado candidato a la Generalitat el 7 de septiembre . es . El Mundo . Barcelona . 14 July 2020.
19. News: Rodríguez Aizpeolea . Luis . 30 August 2003 . Piqué se despide de ministro para ser el candidato del PP en Cataluña . es . El País . Madrid . 14 July 2020.
20. News: Agencias . 7 September 2003 . Piqué, proclamado en Barcelona candidato del PP a la Generalitat . es . Cadena SER . 14 July 2020.
21. News: 2003 . Joan Saura Laporta. El verde con escaño, discípulo de Ribó . es . Libertad Digital . 14 July 2020.
22. Web site: CiU guanyaria amb 47 diputats enfront dels 42 del PSC, segons una mostra de l'escrutini . ca . CCMA . 16 November 2003.
23. Web site: Sondejos . https://web.archive.org/web/20150103043235/http://governacio.gencat.cat/ca/pgov_ambits_d_actuacio/pgov_eleccions/pgov_dades_electorals/pgov_totes_les_convocatories/pgov_parlament_de_catalunya/pgov_any_2003_pc/pgov_sondejos . dead . 3 January 2015 . ca . Generalitat de Catalunya . 12 December 2017.
24. Web site: Empatados ante la semana final . es . La Vanguardia . 9 November 2003.
25. Web site: Encuestas preelectorales publicadas. Cataluña 2003 . es . www.bcn.cat . 10 November 2003.
26. Web site: Los socialistas amplían a 5,6 puntos la ventaja sobre CiU . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 8 November 2003.
27. News: PSC y CiU, en situación de empate técnico . es . El País . 9 November 2003 .
28. Web site: Informe estudio El País. Cataluña. Noviembre 2003 . https://web.archive.org/web/20050825085925/http://www.opina.es/usuarios/track/repositorio/encuestas/90017c.pdf . dead . 25 August 2005 . es . Instituto Opina . 9 November 2003 . 23 February 2021 .
29. News: El PSC aventaja en 5,5 puntos a CiU, según un sondeo de Opina para la SER . es . El País . 1 November 2003 .
30. Web site: Elecciones autonómicas "Catalunya" . es . Infortécnica . 31 October 2003.
31. Web site: ERC tendrá la llave del Gobierno catalán ya que puede dar la mayoría a CiU o al PSC . es . ABC . 2 November 2003.
32. Web site: Maragall es el favorito para gobernar Cataluña . es . Cadena SER . 31 October 2003.
33. Web site: Pulsómetro Elecciones en Cataluña . https://web.archive.org/web/20040207203506/http://www.cadenaser.com/static/pulsometro/anteriores/encuesta_031031.htm . dead . 7 February 2004 . es . Cadena SER . 31 October 2003 . 23 February 2021 .
34. News: El PSC aventaja en 5,5 puntos a CiU, según una encuesta de Opina para la SER . es . El País . 1 November 2003 .
35. Web site: Preelectoral de Cataluña, elecciones autonómicas, 2003 (Estudio nº 2543. Octubre 2003) . es . CIS . 7 November 2003.
36. Web site: Estudio CIS nº 2543. Ficha técnica . es . CIS . 7 November 2003.
37. Web site: CiU aventaja al PSC en un escaño, según el CIS, pero no logra mayoría ni con ERC ni con el PP . es . La Vanguardia . 8 November 2003.
38. Web site: La ventaja del PSC sobre CiU se recorta de 7 a 4 puntos desde junio . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 5 October 2003.
39. Web site: Encuesta de CiU . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 7 October 2003.
40. News: Un sondeo recorta la ventaja del PSC sobre CiU, que es de cuatro puntos . es . El País . 6 October 2003 .
41. Web site: Una encuesta de CiU le da dos escaños más que al PSC . es . La Vanguardia . 6 October 2003.
42. Web site: Ligera ventaja de Maragall sobre Mas al iniciarse la carrera electoral catalana . es . La Vanguardia . 14 September 2003.
43. Web site: Mínima ventaja de Maragall sobre Mas . es . La Vanguardia . 13 July 2003.
44. Web site: El PSC saca 7,2 puntos a CiU pero Mas sigue avanzando en imagen . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 6 July 2003.
45. Web site: Cuestión de ejes . es . La Vanguardia . 22 June 2003.
46. Web site: El PSC le saca 9 puntos a CiU pero Mas recorta terreno en imagen . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 6 April 2003.
47. Web site: Una encuesta sitúa al PSC y CiU muy igualados . es . La Vanguardia . 2 April 2003.
48. News: CiU ha perdido seis puntos frente al PSC en un año, según el Instituto Opina . es . El País . 3 April 2003. Rusiñol . Pere .
49. Web site: El PSC conserva desde octubre una ventaja de 8 puntos sobre CiU . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 22 January 2003.
50. Web site: Maragall parte con una sólida ventaja . es . La Vanguardia . 19 January 2003.
51. Web site: Una encuesta de CiU dice que el PSC ganaría por un escaño . es . La Vanguardia . 18 January 2003.
52. News: El PSC ganaría las elecciones autonómicas, según una encuesta de CiU . es . El País . 18 January 2003.
53. News: Una encuesta de CiU da ganador a Maragall en las autonómicas . es . El País . 18 January 2003.
54. Web site: El PSC aventaja a CiU en 8,5 puntos, según una encuesta de los socialistas . es . La Vanguardia . 31 December 2002.
55. News: Un sondeo del PSC indica que mantiene sobre CiU una ventaja de 8 puntos para las autonómicas . es . El País . 31 December 2002.
56. Web site: Un sondeo del PSC lo sitúa ocho puntos por encima de CiU . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 31 December 2002.
57. Web site: El PSC se consolida como seguro ganador y ERC sube a costa de CiU . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 16 October 2002.
58. Web site: Instituciones y autonomías, II. CA de Cataluña (Estudio nº 2455. Septiembre-Octubre 2002) . es . CIS . 19 November 2002.
59. Web site: El CIS sitúa a CiU por delante del PSC . es . La Vanguardia . 20 November 2002.
60. Web site: El PP, partido más votado en diez Comunidades Autónomas . es . El Mundo . 19 November 2002.
61. Web site: El PP ganaría las autonómicas en diez Comunidades y el PSOE en cuatro, según el CIS . es . ABC . 20 November 2002.
62. Web site: Los socialistas aumentan hasta 7,5 puntos su ventaja sobre CiU . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 3 July 2002.
63. Web site: El PSC recurre a su último sondeo para pronosticar la "caída libre" de CiU y de Mas . es . La Vanguardia . 26 June 2002.
64. News: El PSC superaría a CiU en 7,5 puntos, según una encuesta electoral . es . El País . 4 July 2002 .
65. Web site: El Periódico 28/04/2002 . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 28 April 2002.
66. Web site: Un macrosondeo del Instituto Opina da por primera vez la victoria a Mas sobre Maragall . es . La Vanguardia . 23 April 2002.
67. News: Una encuesta encargada por CiU le da un punto de ventaja sobre los socialistas . es . El País . 23 April 2002 .
68. Web site: La fusión fría . es . La Vanguardia . 8 April 2002.
69. Web site: Un sondeo del PSC amplía a siete puntos su ventaja sobre CiU en unas autonómicas . es . La Vanguardia . 26 March 2002.
70. Web site: El PSC se despega de CiU y le saca ahora 3,8 puntos de ventaja . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 17 February 2002.
71. Web site: Los votantes de Cir valoran más a Maragall que a Artur Mas . es . ABC . 28 December 2001.
72. News: Un sondeo del PSC le da entre tres y cinco puntos de ventaja sobre CiU . es . El País . 18 December 2001 .
73. Web site: El PSC y CiU siguen prácticamente empatados en estimación de voto . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 4 November 2001.
74. News: Carod advierte a CiU de que se le acaba el tiempo para cambiar de aliado . es . El País . 23 October 2001.
75. Web site: El PSC pide a Maragall que proyecte imagen de president ante el inicio de retirada de Pujol . es . La Vanguardia . 23 October 2001.
76. News: Un sondeo del Gobierno sitúa a Mas como el vencedor del debate de la censura . es . El País . 24 October 2001.
77. Web site: El voto melancólico . es . La Vanguardia . 13 August 2001.
78. Web site: El voto frío . es . La Vanguardia . 14 August 2001.
79. Web site: El voto selecto . es . La Vanguardia . 15 August 2001.
80. Web site: El voto emocional . es . La Vanguardia . 16 August 2001.
81. Web site: El voto sigiloso . es . La Vanguardia . 17 August 2001.
82. Web site: CiU recupera terreno y empata con el PSC en estimación de voto . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 10 July 2001.
83. Web site: El PSC moderniza su imagen para resaltar su definición como partido catalanista . es . La Vanguardia . 14 July 2001.
84. News: Mas recorta 4 puntos la ventaja de Maragall, que todavía le lleva 14, según un sondeo del PSC . es . El País . 14 July 2001.
85. Web site: El PSC sacaría cuatro puntos a CiU en unas elecciones autonómicas . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 30 April 2001.
86. Web site: Situación social y política de Cataluña, XVI (Estudio nº 2410. Marzo 2001) . es . CIS . 23 May 2001.
87. Web site: Estudio CIS nº 2410. Ficha técnica . es . CIS . 23 May 2001.
88. Web site: CiU y PSC van empatados, según el CIS . es . La Vanguardia . 24 May 2001.
89. Web site: El PSC aventaja en tres puntos a CiU, aunque empatan en número de escaños . es . ABC . 24 May 2001.
90. Web site: El PSC cree que la candidatura de Mas dispara las opciones de victoria de Maragall . es . La Vanguardia . 10 April 2001.
91. News: Maragall consolida su ventaja sobre Mas y le supera en 20 puntos, según una encuesta del PSC . es . El País . 10 April 2001.
92. News: Maragall superaría a Mas en más de 20 puntos, según una encuesta encargada por el PSC . es . El País . 10 April 2001 .
93. Web site: El PSC superaría en un punto a CiU de celebrarse ahora los comicios al Parlament . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 12 February 2001.
94. Web site: Sólo Pujol puede frenar a Maragall . es . La Vanguardia . 12 November 2000.
95. Web site: Ligero avance del PSC en las generales . es . La Vanguardia . 12 November 2000.
96. Web site: CiU y PSC empatarían de nuevo si se celebrasen elecciones ahora . es . El Periódico de Catalunya . 11 November 2000.
97. Web site: Electoral results. Parliament of Catalonia election 2003 . ca . resultats.dadeselectorals.gencat.cat . . 24 September 2017.