1998 Australian federal election explained

Election Name:1998 Australian federal election
Country:Australia
Type:parliamentary
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:Results of the 1996 Australian federal election (House of Representatives)
Previous Year:1996
Next Election:Results of the 2001 Australian federal election (House of Representatives)
Next Year:2001
Outgoing Members:Members of the Australian House of Representatives, 1996–1998
Elected Members:Members of the Australian House of Representatives, 1998–2001
Registered:12,154,050
Turnout:11,545,201 (94.99%)
(0.78 pp)
Seats For Election:All 148 seats in the House of Representatives
75 seats were needed for a majority in the House
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Vote Type:First preference
Image1:File:John howard b.jpg
Leader1:John Howard
Leader Since1:
Party1:Liberal/National coalition
Leaders Seat1:Bennelong (NSW)
Last Election1:94 seats
Seats Before1:94
Seats1:80
Seat Change1: 14
Popular Vote1:4,388,809
Percentage1:39.51%
Swing1: 7.73%
Leader2:Kim Beazley
Leader Since2:
Party2:Australian Labor Party
Leaders Seat2:Brand (WA)
Last Election2:49 seats
Seats Before2:49
Seats2:67
Seat Change2: 18
Popular Vote2:4,454,306
Percentage2:40.10%
Swing2: 1.34%
Prime Minister
Before Election:John Howard
Before Party:Liberal/National coalition
Posttitle:Subsequent Prime Minister
After Election:John Howard
After Party:Liberal/National coalition
1Blank:TPP
1Data1:49.02%
1Data2:50.98%
2Blank:TPP swing
2Data1: 4.61
2Data2: 4.61

The 1998 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley, despite losing the nationwide popular and two-party preferred vote. However, the Australian Labor Party gained seats from the previous election.

Entering parliament at this election were future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, future Liberal deputy leader and future Minister of Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, future Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan and future Speaker Anna Burke.

Background

The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate.

Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937.

The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five-week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts. This election was not the first to be centered on a GST the 1993 election saw the Keating Labor government re elected after a proposal by then Opposition leader John Hewson to introduce a 15% GST.https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/133338929

In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences.The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris.

The election-eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote.[1]

On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming Prime Minister.The uneven nature of the swing saw Labor getting huge swings in seats that they held prior to the election but not enough in seats needed to gain government.[2]

The election for the division of Newcastle was deferred as the candidate died on 1 October, two days before the federal election. A supplementary election was held on 21 November, with Labor winning and holding the seat.[3] [4]

Results

Senate results

House of Representatives preference flows

  • The Nationals had candidates in 13 seats where three-cornered-contests existed, with 88.89% of preferences favouring the Liberal Party.
  • One Nation contested 135 electorates with preferences slightly favouring the Liberal/National Coalition (53.66%)
  • The Democrats contested 144 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (56.72%)
  • The Greens contested 120 electorates with preferences strongly favouring Labor (73.28%)

Seats changing hands

SeatPre-1998SwingPost-1998
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bass, Tas LiberalWarwick Smith4.574.630.06Michelle O'ByrneLabor 
Bendigo, Vic LiberalBruce Reid0.884.353.47Steve GibbonsLabor 
Bowman, Qld LiberalAndrea West0.894.183.29Con SciaccaLabor 
Braddon, Tas LiberalChris Miles5.6910.024.33Sid SidebottomLabor 
Canning, WA LiberalRicky Johnston1.645.163.52Jane GerickLabor 
Capricornia, Qld NationalPaul Marek3.468.755.29Kirsten LivermoreLabor 
Chisholm, Vic LiberalMichael Wooldridge2.604.672.07Anna BurkeLabor 
Cowan, WA LiberalRichard Evans4.067.623.56Graham EdwardsLabor 
Curtin, WA IndependentAllan Rocher7.28N/A13.28Julie BishopLiberal 
Dickson, Qld LiberalTony Smith3.904.020.12Cheryl KernotLabor 
Griffith, Qld LiberalGraeme McDougall1.503.932.43Kevin RuddLabor 
Hume, NSW NationalJohn Sharp4.353.718.06Alby SchultzLiberal 
Kingston, SA LiberalSusan Jeanes2.012.480.47David CoxLabor 
Kalgoorlie, WA IndependentGraeme Campbell10.35N/A2.10Barry HaaseLiberal 
Lilley, Qld LiberalElizabeth Grace0.803.933.13Wayne SwanLabor 
Lowe, NSW LiberalPaul Zammit2.467.094.63John MurphyLabor 
McMillan, Vic LiberalRussell Broadbent2.072.640.57Christian ZahraLabor 
Moore, WA IndependentPaul Filing13.28N/A4.13Mal WasherLiberal 
Northern Territory, NT Country LiberalNick Dondas0.370.940.57Warren SnowdonLabor 
Oxley, Qld One NationPauline Hanson0.357.858.20Bernie RipollLabor 
Paterson, NSW LiberalBob Baldwin0.431.651.22Bob HorneLabor 
Stirling, WA LiberalEoin Cameron3.224.261.04Jann McFarlaneLabor 
Swan, WA LiberalDon Randall3.636.332.70Kim WilkieLabor 

See also

References

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Newspoll archive since 1987 . Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au . 2016-07-30 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160303135154/http://polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au/cgi-bin/polling/display_poll_data.pl?url_caller=&mode=trend&page=show_polls&question_set_id=1 . 3 March 2016 . dead .
  2. Web site: How Many Seats Did John Howard Lose at the 1998 GST Election? . 4 October 2021 . ABC News. Australia . Antony Green . 4 February 2016 .
  3. Web site: 1998 House of Representatives: NSW . Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive . 2022-06-11.
  4. Web site: Newcastle 1998 supplementary election. Australian Electoral Commission. 19 January 2011. 17 January 2023.