1994 Andalusian regional election explained

Election Name:	1994 Andalusian regional election
Country:	Andalusia
Type:	parliamentary
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	1990 Andalusian regional election
Previous Year:	1990
Next Election:	1996 Andalusian regional election
Next Year:	1996
Seats For Election:	All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia
Majority Seats:	55
Opinion Polls:	Opinion polls
Registered:	5,389,552 7.6%
Turnout:	3,625,445 (67.3%) 12.0 pp
Election Date:	12 June 1994
Leader1:	Manuel Chaves
Party1:	PSOE–A
Leader Since1:	19 April 1990
Leaders Seat1:	Cádiz
Last Election1:	62 seats, 49.6%
Seats1:	45
Seat Change1:	17
Popular Vote1:	1,395,131
Percentage1:	38.7%
Swing1:	10.9 pp
Leader2:	Javier Arenas
Party2:	People's Party of Andalusia
Leader Since2:	25 July 1993
Leaders Seat2:	Seville
Last Election2:	26 seats, 22.2%
Seats2:	41
Seat Change2:	15
Popular Vote2:	1,238,252
Percentage2:	34.4%
Swing2:	12.2 pp
Leader3:	Luis Carlos Rejón
Party3:	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia
Leader Since3:	21 July 1988
Leaders Seat3:	Córdoba
Last Election3:	11 seats, 12.7%
Seats3:	20
Seat Change3:	9
Popular Vote3:	689,815
Percentage3:	19.1%
Swing3:	6.4 pp
Leader4:	Pedro Pacheco
Party4:	PA–PAP
Colour4:	005931
Leader Since4:	1994
Leaders Seat4:	Cádiz
Last Election4:	10 seats, 10.8%
Seats4:	3
Seat Change4:	7
Popular Vote4:	208,862
Percentage4:	5.8%
Swing4:	5.0 pp
Map Size:	375px
President
Before Election:	Manuel Chaves
Before Party:	PSOE–A
After Election:	Manuel Chaves
After Party:	PSOE–A

The 1994 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 12 June 1994, to elect the 4th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 1994 European Parliament election.

The candidate for the PSOE, Manuel Chaves, was invested as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia after winning the election. However, the poor results obtained by his party forced him to form a minority government 10 seats short of a majority. Eventually, a snap election had to be called in 1996 due to the impracticality of government resulting from the union, at times, of the two main opposition parties (People's Party and United Left).

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.^[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other).^{[1] [2]}

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
18	Seville
16	Málaga
15	Cádiz
13	Córdoba, Granada
12	Jaén
11	Almería, Huelva

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.^[3]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.^{[2] [4]}

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Election day was to take place between the thirtieth and the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 23 June 1990, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 23 June 1994. The election was required to take place no later than the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament on the condition that it was not held between 1 July and 31 August, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Thursday, 30 June 1994.^{[1] [2] [5] [6]}

The Parliament of Andalusia could not be dissolved before the date of expiry of parliament. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected.^{[1] [5] [6]}

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 19 April 1994, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia.^[7] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution.^[8]

Parliamentary composition in April 1994

Parliamentary groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialist		PSOE–A	62	62
	People's of Andalusia		PP	26	26
	United Left–Assembly for Andalusia		PCA–PCE	10	11
			PASOC	1
	Andalusian		PA	6	6
	Mixed		PAP	4	4

Campaign

Election debates

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV		PAP		Lead
1994 regional election	12 Jun 1994		67.3		38.7	34.4	19.1			5.8	4.3
Sigma Dos/COPE^[11]	12 Jun 1994	?	?		?	?	?			?	?
Vox Pública/Antena 3	12 Jun 1994	?	?		?	?	?			?	?
Demoscopia/Cadena SER	12 Jun 1994	?	?		?	?	?			?	?
Eco Consulting/RTVE	12 Jun 1994	?	?		?	?	?			?	?
ICP–Research/Diario 16^[12]	5 Jun 1994	?	?		40.6	26.8	19.2			5.4	13.8
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^[13]	3–4 Jun 1994	?	?		39.4	32.2	17.8			6.9	7.2
Opina/La Vanguardia^[14]	30 May–1 Jun 1994	2,000	?		40.0	34.0	15.0			8.0	6.0
Demoscopia/El País^[15] ^[16]	29–31 May 1994	?	?		40.7	30.9	18.2			7.9	9.8
Metra Seis^[17]	26–31 May 1994	3,700	?		?	?	?			?	?
CIS^[18]	19–23 May 1994	2,000	?		?	?	?			?	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo^[19] ^[20]	16 May 1994	?	?		39.2	31.4	?			?	6.8
CIS^[21]	13–28 Apr 1994	4,000	?		?	?	?			?	?
Opina/La Vanguardia^[22]	8–11 Apr 1994	2,000	?		37.0	34.0	14.0			12.0	3.0
PSOE^[23]	7 Apr 1994	?	?		?	?	?			?	?
PP^[24]	7 Mar 1994	2,500	?		40.0– 42.0	34.0	13.0– 16.0	3.0 4.0	–	–	6.0– 8.0
PP^[25] ^[26]	5–18 Nov 1993	2,500	?		42.0	32.0	14.0	4.0– 6.0	3.0	–	10.0
1993 general election	6 Jun 1993		76.2		51.5	29.8	12.1	2.4	1.1	–	21.7
1991 local elections	26 May 1991		61.2		45.3	20.3	13.5	11.1	–	–	25.0
1990 regional election	23 Jun 1990		55.3		49.6	22.2	12.7	10.8	–	–	27.4

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			IULV		PAP				Lead
1994 regional election	12 Jun 1994			25.9	23.2	12.9			3.9		32.3	2.7
CIS^[27] ^[28]	19–23 May 1994	1,994		26.6	18.6	11.5			4.8	29.4	7.7	8.0
CIS^[29] ^[30]	13 Apr–2 May 1994	3,992		26.2	19.4	11.8	4.9	0.5	–	28.5	6.5	6.8
CIS^[31]	11–24 Nov 1992	4,446		29.4	7.7	6.4	7.6	–	–	34.8	12.8	21.7
1990 regional election	23 Jun 1990			27.4	12.3	7.0	6.0	–	–		44.5	15.1

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			IULV		Other/ None		Lead
Opina/La Vanguardia	30 May–1 Jun 1994	2,000		23.2	21.3	9.3	5.9	4.7	35.6	1.9
CIS	19–23 May 1994	1,994		32.4	21.1	–	–	10.1	36.4	11.3
CIS	13 Apr–2 May 1994	3,992		34.1	22.9	–	–	9.3	33.7	11.2
Opina/La Vanguardia	8–11 Apr 1994	2,000	18.1		21.8	7.7	4.2	1.6	46.7	3.7

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			IULV		Other/ None		Lead
Opina/La Vanguardia	30 May–1 Jun 1994	2,000		42.7	12.1	1.2	2.4	1.0	40.5	30.6
CIS	19–23 May 1994	1,994		40.6	13.8	–	–	21.0	24.6	26.8
CIS	13 Apr–2 May 1994	3,992		37.2	14.8	–	–	18.6	29.4	22.4
Opina/La Vanguardia	8–11 Apr 1994	2,000		37.2	12.0	2.2	2.2	0.7	45.7	25.2

Results

Overall

← Summary of 12 June 1994 Parliament of Andalusia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	1,395,131	38.72	–10.88	45	–17
	People's Party (PP)	1,238,252	34.36	+12.18	41	+15
	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	689,815	19.14	+6.47	20	+9
	Andalusian Coalition–Andalusian Power (PA–PAP)^1	208,862	5.80	–4.95	3	–7
	Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA)	12,078	0.34	+0.11	0	±0
	Forum–Democratic and Social Centre (Foro–CDS)	9,875	0.27	–0.91	0	±0
	Andalusian Nation (NA)^2	9,690	0.27	+0.21	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	5,510	0.15	+0.08	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)	2,637	0.07	–0.01	0	±0
	Socialist October (OS)	641	0.02	New	0	±0
	Independent Spanish Phalanx (FEI)	350	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		30,750	0.85	+0.41
Total		3,603,591			109	±0
Valid votes		3,603,591	99.40	–0.16
Invalid votes		21,854	0.60	+0.16
Votes cast / turnout		3,625,445	67.27	+11.93
Abstentions		1,764,107	32.73	–11.93
Registered voters		5,389,552
Sources^[32] ^[33] ^[34]

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE–A		PP		IULV–CA		PA–PAP
	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S	data-sort-type="number"	%	data-sort-type="number"	S
Almería	38.1	5	41.9	5	15.0	1	3.2	−
Cádiz	34.5	5	33.2	5	18.2	3	11.6	2
Córdoba	37.5	6	30.8	4	24.6	3	5.3	−
Granada	38.3	5	38.6	6	16.8	2	4.4	−
Huelva	44.1	5	33.3	4	15.7	2	5.2	−
Jaén	42.6	5	35.9	5	15.6	2	4.1	−
Málaga	34.3	6	36.5	6	22.4	4	4.7	−
Seville	42.0	8	30.6	6	19.5	3	5.8	1
Total	38.7	45	34.4	41	19.1	20	5.8	3
Sources

Aftermath

Investiture Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot →		20 July 1994	23 July 1994	29 July 1994
Required majority →		55 out of 109	Simple	Simple
Sources

References

Opinion poll sources

Other

Notes and References

1. Ley Orgánica 6/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía] ]. Organic Law . 2 . es . 30 December 1981 . 16 September 2017.
2. Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía . Law . 1 . es . 2 January 1986 . 16 September 2017.
3. Web site: Gallagher . Michael . 30 July 2012 . Effective threshold in electoral systems . Trinity College, Dublin . https://web.archive.org/web/20170730092518/http://www.tcd.ie/Political_Science/staff/michael_gallagher/ElSystems/Docts/effthresh.php . 22 July 2017. 30 July 2017 .
4. Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General . Organic Law . 5 . es . 19 June 1985 . 28 December 2016.
5. Ley 6/1983, de 21 de Julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma . Law . 6 . es . 21 July 1983 . 17 September 2017.
6. Ley 1/1990, de 30 de enero, por la que se modifica la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma . Law . 1 . es . 30 January 1990 . 17 September 2017.
7. Boletín Oficial de la Junta de Andalucía . 52 . 19 April 1994 . 3728 . 0212-5803 . DECRETO del Presidente 85/1994, de 18 de abril, por el que se convocan elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía . es.
8. Web site: LOS GRUPOS PARLAMENTARIOS. III Legislatura . es . Parlamento de Andalucía . 20 May 2022.
9. News: Lucio . Lourdes . 14 años sin verse las caras . El País . Seville . 16 February 2008 . es . 17 May 2022.
10. News: La mitad de los andaluces estaba viendo el debate cuando se habló de corrupción y campañas institucionales de la Junta . ABC Sevilla . 4 June 1994 . es . 4 September 2022.
11. Web site: Sondea, que algo queda . es . La Vanguardia . 27 May 1995.
12. Web site: Elecciones de 12 de junio de 1994 al Parlamento Andaluz . es . Revista de Derecho Político . 1996.
13. Web site: El PSOE necesitará el apoyo de Izquierda Unida para poder gobernar en Andalucía . es . El Mundo . 5 June 1994.
14. Web site: Los socialistas ganarán las elecciones en Andalucía . es . La Vanguardia . 5 June 1994.
15. Web site: El PP gana las europeas por seis puntos y el PSOE pierde la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía . es . El País . 5 June 1994.
16. Web site: Cualquier coalición será posible para formar Gobierno en Andalucía . es . El País . 5 June 1994.
17. Web site: Metra-Seis atribuye de 41 a 46 escaños al PSOE y de 35 a 39 al PP . es . ABC Sevilla . 5 June 1994.
18. Web site: La última encuesta del CIS confirma que el PSOE perderá la mayoría absoluta . es . ABC Sevilla . 3 June 1994.
19. Web site: El PSOE perderá votos en toda Andalucía pero podrá gobernar si le apoyan los andalucistas . es . El Mundo . 16 May 1994.
20. Web site: El PSOE echa el resto en Andalucía para salvar la mayoría absoluta que le arrebatan las encuestas . es . ABC Sevilla . 27 May 1994.
21. Web site: Una encuesta del CIS confirma la pérdida de la mayoría absoluta del PSOE y la subida de PP e IU-CA . es . ABC Sevilla . 21 May 1994.
22. Web site: El PSOE volverá a ganar en Andalucía, pero el PP acorta distancias y se sitúa a sólo tres puntos . es . La Vanguardia . 17 April 1994.
23. Web site: Una encuesta realizada por el PSOE refleja que los socialistas perderían la mayoría absoluta . es . ABC Sevilla . 7 April 1994.
24. Web site: El PP maneja un sondeo que le concede un máximo de 41 escaños y al PSOE hasta 53 diputados . es . ABC Sevilla . 7 March 1994.
25. Web site: Una encuesta para el PP prevé la pérdida de la mayoría absoluta del PSOE en el Parlamento de Andalucía . es . ABC . 15 December 1993.
26. Web site: El PSOE perdería la mayoría absoluta, según una encuesta del PP . es . ABC Sevilla . 15 December 1993.
27. Web site: Preelectoral Andalucía 1994 (I) (Estudio nº 2102. Abril-mayo 1994) . es . CIS . 3 June 1994.
28. Web site: El PSOE supera en siete puntos al PP en las elecciones andaluzas, según el CIS . es . El País . 3 June 1994.
29. Web site: Situación social y política de Andalucía (V) (Estudio nº 2089. Abril-mayo 1994) . es . CIS . 20 May 1994.
30. Web site: Los populares andaluces se acercan a 6,8 puntos de los socialistas . es . El País . 20 May 1994.
31. Web site: Opinión pública y cultura política en las Comunidades Autónomas: Andalucía (Estudio nº 2025. Noviembre 1992) . es . CIS . 24 November 1992.
32. Web site: Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (1982 - 2018) . es . Historia Electoral.com . 25 September 2017.
33. Web site: Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. June 1994. Andalusia totals . es . juntadeandalucia.es . . 25 September 2017.
34. Web site: Parliament of Andalusia election results, 12 June 1994 . 9 July 1994 . es . www.juntaelectoralcentral.es . . 25 September 2017.