See also: 1993 United States gubernatorial elections.
| Election Name: | 1993 New Jersey gubernatorial election |
| Country: | New Jersey |
| Type: | Presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 1989 New Jersey gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 1989 |
| Next Election: | 1997 New Jersey gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 1997 |
| Election Date: | November 2, 1993 |
| Image1: | File:Christine Todd Whitman 412-APD-A5-Admin (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Christine Todd Whitman |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 1,236,124 |
| Percentage1: | 49.3% |
| Nominee2: | James Florio |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,210,031 |
| Percentage2: | 48.3% |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | James Florio |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Christine Todd Whitman |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 1993 New Jersey gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 1993. Incumbent Democratic Governor James Florio was narrowly defeated by Republican former Somerset County freeholder and 1990 U.S. Senate nominee Christine Todd Whitman. Primary elections were held on June 8, 1993. In the Democratic primary, Governor Florio's only challenger, anti-tax activist John Budzash, was disqualified from the ballot due to invalid petition signatures. In the Republican primary, Whitman defeated W. Cary Edwards and James Wallwork.
Florio's defeat followed backlash from voters against his administration's tax increases.
See main article: 1989 New Jersey gubernatorial election. In the 1989 New Jersey gubernatorial election, Florio--then a U.S. representative--defeated Republican U.S. Representative Jim Courter by a wide margin.[1] Previously, Florio had unsuccessfully challenged Democratic incumbent governor Brendan Byrne in 1977[2] [3] and had lost the 1981 gubernatorial election to Republican Thomas Kean.[4]
During his 1989 campaign, Florio said, "You can write this statement down: 'Florio feels there is no need for new taxes'".[5] In 1990, Florio signed a $2.8 billion tax increase into law.[6]
The centerpiece of the Florio administration's legislative agenda was a $2.8 billion increase in tax revenues, which one consultant identified "the largest single tax increase in the history of the finances of the 50 states" and "a national test case on both political and economic grounds."[7] The tax increase was highly unpopular, leading to non-partisan protests throughout the state. The Florio administration adopted a wait-and-see approach, hoping that protests would desist once the legislative package delivered benefits in the form of rebate checks, lower auto insurance rates, and increased funding for education.
Two other major legislative achievements were a popular gun control measure targeted at "assault-style weapons"[8] [9] [10] and the Quality Education Act, which set new standards for public schools and set strict spending caps on local school boards.[11] [12]
See main article: 1990 United States Senate election in New Jersey. By fall 1990, Florio's approval rating sank to 18 percent; it would not exceed the low twenties until 1992.[13]
The political impact of the anti-Florio "tax revolt" manifested in November 1990, when incumbent United States Senator Bill Bradley was nearly unseated by Christine Todd Whitman. During her campaign, Whitman repeatedly asked Bradley for his position on the increase, but he demurred, calling it a state issue.[14] Whitman's underdog near-victory endeared her to the Republican voter base and made her a symbol of opposition to Florio.
See also: 1991 New Jersey State Senate election. Republicans centered their 1991 legislative campaign on opposition to the Florio tax increase, as did even some incumbent Democrats, such as Senator Paul Contillo. Florio also faced backlash from the NRA Political Victory Fund, which spent nearly $250,000 targeting candidates in both parties who had voted in favor of the bill and supporting those who pledged to repeal it,[10] and the New Jersey Education Association, which had supported Florio in 1989 but endorsed almost exclusively Republican candidates in response to the education spending caps.
The result was a resounding Republican victory in the 1991 elections. The Republicans gained ten seats in the State Senate (controlling the chamber for the first time since 1974) and 21 seats in the General Assembly. Both houses won veto-proof Republican majorities, which may have drawn political pressure off Florio for the remainder of his term. Florio's approval ratings began to rebound as the Republican legislature was given a share of the blame for the state's budgetary dysfunction.
Florio was unopposed in the June primary election. Former Howell Township postal worker, John Budzash, originally filed to run against Florio in the primary. Budzash, who switched his party registration from Republican to Democratic one day before the filing deadline, led Hands Across New Jersey, a citizens group that protested the state tax increases.[15] He was removed following a complaint from then-state party chair Raymond Lesniak alleging that many of his petition signatures were invalid.[16]
Following W. Cary Edwards's loss to Jim Courter in the 1989 primary, Edwards was seen as the natural favorite for the 1993 nomination. He was a key member of the popular Thomas Kean administration, first as general counsel and then as state Attorney General. However, his path to the nomination became complicated by Christine Todd Whitman's 1990 campaign for United States Senate. Her underdog two-point loss endeared her to the party base and made her the leading public advocate of the anti-tax cause.
Whitman continued to build her profile by founding a political action committee, the Committee for an Affordable New Jersey, through which she campaigned for Republican candidates in the 1991 midterm elections.[17] Whitman took on a full campaign speaking schedule through October 1992 and worked to distance herself from veteran consultant Roger Stone after Stone facilitated a primary challenge to State Senator William Gormley, a potential 1993 opponent.
The primary campaign was marked by negative exchanges between the three strongest candidates and Whitman's clear status as the front-runner throughout.
The campaign began as a two-candidate race between Christine Whitman and Cary Edwards. Polling suggested that either would beat Governor Florio but that Whitman was generally the stronger of the two. In February, responding to national controversy over nominee for U.S. Attorney General Zoë Baird's hiring of illegal aliens in violation of federal law, both candidates voluntarily disclosed that they had done so too and failed to required taxes or fines. The revelation dramatically weakened both campaigns; seventy percent of voters said the admission was very or somewhat serious.[21] [22]
Soon after, former state senator James Wallwork declared his candidacy as a conservative alternative to Whitman and Edwards,[23] tapping into populist unrest. Like H. Ross Perot and Jerry Brown had during the 1992 presidential campaign, Wallwork offered voters a toll-free number they could call to directly propose positions. Wallwork, who had last cut a political figure in a 1981 campaign for governor, said his campaign would be about "people taking back their government."[24]
In the final weeks of the campaign, Whitman ran advertisements presenting herself as a candidate for change but not mentioning her opponents or Governor Florio by name. Edwards attacked both Whitman in Florio in his advertisements, while Wallwork focused on painting Whitman as "liberal" and ran an ad stating that she had voted to raise taxes 17 times as Somerset Freeholder. In the final week of the campaign, Whitman began running negative advertisements as well.[25]
A large portion of the campaign was focused on winning over the 522,000 New Jerseyans who had voted for H. Ross Perot in the 1992 presidential campaign. Perot remained popular in the state; on the final weekend of the campaign, he hosted a get-out-the-vote rally which all three candidates attended.[25]
The three major candidates participated in at least six debates and two mandatory televised debates.
By May 11, Whitman was the heavy favorite entering the first televised debate in Whippany; her campaign claimed no less than a double-digit lead over both opponents.[26] At the debate, all three candidates agreed in their opposition to the Florio tax increase but disagreed over how to repeal it. Edwards called for a new popularly elected office of Auditor to evaluate potential budget cuts, while Wallwork and Whitman argued that the powerful line-item veto allowed the governor to do so immediately.[26] Whitman also attacked Edwards for a nine percent increase in crime during his tenure as Attorney General, a preemptive rebuttal to Edwards's accusation that she was soft on crime.[26]
The second televised debate on May 26 was focused on business issues and was less contentious; the candidates mostly agreed on automobile insurance reform, managed health care, unemployment, pollution legislation and sports betting.[27] At one point, during an exchange on unemployment, Edwards accused Whitman of not understanding the plight of the unemployed, saying "At least I have had a job in my life." Whitman demanded an apology for this and an earlier comment in which Edwards, during a two-person debate with Wallwork, said he "resented" running against a woman.[27] Edwards declined to apologize and later accused Whitman of "setting him up."[27] Another disagreement came over private school vouchers; Whitman supported them while Edwards was opposed and Wallwork deferred to a public referendum.[27]
Two non-televised debates were hosted by Perot supporters under the banner of "United We Stand." All three candidates attended the first but only Edwards and Wallwork attended the second.[25]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | class=small | Sample size | Margin of error | W. Cary Edwards | Christine Todd Whitman | James Wallwork | Other/Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Record[28] | March 9–19, 1993 | 227 LV | ±6.5% | 8% | align=center | 28% | 2% | 62% | |
| Asbury Park Press/Courier-Post[29] | April 2–4, 1993 | 630 A | ±3.9% | 14% | align=center | 30% | 4% | 52% | |
| The Record[30] | April 25–May 3, 1993 | 208 LV | ±7.0% | 14% | align=center | 41% | 5% | 37% | |
| KYW-TV[31] | May 28–June 1, 1993 | 245 LV | ±6.7% | 23% | align=center | 37% | 18% | 22% |
Florio had become unpopular due to his 1990 $2.8-billion tax increase.[33] As a result of the tax increase, Republicans were swept into both houses of the Legislature in 1991. A 1990 bill that was signed into law banning assault weapons was used against Florio in advertisements by the National Rifle Association of America.[33] A proposal by Whitman to cut income taxes by 30% over three years was met with skepticism from voters.[34]
Polling for the election mostly showed that Florio would be reelected. Polls conducted within a few weeks of the election by The Star-Ledger, The New York Times, the Record of Hackensack, and Rutgers-Eagleton showed Florio besting Whitman by at least eight points.[34] The final poll released before the election, however was conducted by the Asbury Park Press and showed a 38-38 tie with 22% undecided,[35] and undecided and independent voters tended towards Whitman at the time of the election.[34]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | class=small | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Florio (D) | Christine Todd Whitman (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Record[36] | August 26–29, 1991 | 526 LV | ±4.5% | 27% | align=center | 52% | 21% | ||
| Asbury Park Press[37] | January 1993 | 672 A | ±4.4% | 30% | align=center | 36% | 34% | ||
| The Record | March 9–19, 1993 | 610 LV | ±4.0% | align=center | 39% | 30% | 31% | ||
| Asbury Park Press | April 2–4, 1993 | 630 A | ±3.9% | 36% | align=center | 45% | 19% | ||
| The Record | April 25–May 3, 1993 | 802 LV | ±3.5% | align=center | 38% | 34% | 28% | ||
| KYW-TV | May 28–June 1, 1993 | 811 RV | ±3.5% | 37% | align=center | 43% | 20% | ||
| Rutgers-Eagleton | June 10–16, 1993 | 642 RV | ±3.5% | align=center | 48% | 43% | 9% | ||
| The Record[38] | June 27–July 1, 1993 | 889 LV | ±3.5% | align=center | 39% | 38% | 23% | ||
| Asbury Park Press/[39] | August 12–14, 1993 | 683 LV | ±3.8% | 37% | align=center | 38% | 25% | ||
| The Record[40] | September 7–12, 1993 | 606 LV | ±4.5% | align=center | 43% | align=center | 43% | 14% | |
| Asbury Park Press[41] | September 9–12, 1993 | 652 LV | ±3.8% | align=center | 42% | 36% | 22% | ||
| Rutgers-Eagleton | September 10–15, 1993 | 584 LV | ±4.0% | align=center | 47% | 38% | 15% | ||
| The New York Times/WCBS-TV[42] | September 20–26, 1993 | 804 RV | ±4.0% | align=center | 51% | 30% | 19% | ||
| Asbury Park Press[43] | Sep. 30–Oct. 2, 1993 | 545 LV | ±4.3% | align=center | 47% | 34% | 19% | ||
| The Record[44] | Sep. 30–Oct. 3, 1993 | 754 RV | ±4.0% | align=center | 50% | 37% | 13% | ||
| The New York Times/WCBS-TV | October 9–11, 1993 | 925 RV | ±3.0% | align=center | 49% | 34% | 17% | ||
| Rutgers-Eagleton | October 11–14, 1993 | 577 LV | ±4.0% | align=center | 52% | 40% | 8% | ||
| Asbury Park Press[45] | October 21–23, 1993 | 810 RV | ±3.8% | align=center | 45% | 40% | 15% | ||
| The Record[46] | October 24–27, 1993 | 703 LV | ±4.0% | align=center | 51% | 41% | 8% | ||
| Rutgers-Eagleton | October 27–29, 1993 | 601 LV | ±3.5% | align=center | 48% | 39% | 13% | ||
| Asbury Park Press[47] | October 28–30, 1993 | 1,072 RV | ±3.0% | align=center | 38% | align=center | 38% | 22% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | class=small | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Florio (D) | W. Cary Edwards (R) | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asbury Park Press/Courier-Post | January 1993 | 672 A | ±4.4% | 31% | align=center | 32% | align=center | 37% |
| The Record | March 9–19, 1993 | 610 LV | ±4.0% | align=center | 40% | 25% | 35% | |
| Asbury Park Press | April 2–4, 1993 | 630 A | ±3.9% | 31% | align=center | 40% | 29% | |
| KYW-TV | May 28–June 1, 1993 | 811 RV | ±3.5% | 34% | align=center | 38% | 28% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | class=small | Sample size | Margin of error | Jim Florio (D) | James Wallwork (R) | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asbury Park Press | April 2–4, 1993 | 630 A | ±3.9% | 33% | align=center | 36% | 31% | |
| KYW-TV | May 28–June 1, 1993 | 811 RV | ±3.5% | 35% | align=center | 37% | 28% |
This is also the most recent time that Cape May County voted Democratic in a gubernatorial election.